What would be your strategy in this 1 year league (all pts)

[Eskimo Brother]

If you are drafting 14... and counting 8/2/1... then you've got 3 spare spots.
The simple assumption would be to draft 9/3/2 so that you've got 1 spare for injury at each position.

Personally, I think if your goalie goes down, you are screwed unless you have another dynamite goalie.
And if you are using TWO upper picks for ONE counting spot, your strategy stinks.

For that reason, the number of goalies you should draft is exactly ONE - and pray he's healthy - and pray he stays #1. That's all you can do for goalies.
So now it becomes easy.
You hedge 2 spares towards your 8 forwards, hoping that not more than 2 get injured.
You hedge 1 spare towards your 2 defense, hoping that not more than 1 get injured.

So now lets assume everybody drafts the same: 10F/3D/1G.
In play: 140F/42D/14G (though I know several teams will draft 2G, for fear of having one go down - which is wrong strategy in a "LOCK" league, but somebody will do it).

KEY Numbers:
NHL D #42 scored 33pts last year. (and it will be similar in most past years, +/- 2pts)
NHL F # 140 scored 39pts last year. (and it will be similar in most past years, +/- 3pts)

So, you are always drafting based on those numbers.
65pt F vs. 50pt D... you are drafting the F.
50pt F vs. 35pt D... you are still drafting the F.

So - it should be a very F heavy draft.
In fact, if you simply had not drafted Malkin last year, you would've won, right?
Just don't draft that band-aid boy again and stop doubting your strategy.

For me, you buy Dobber's guide and sort goalies by Wins.
He's actually got Mike Smith starting a big load of games and winning enough to make him a top 12 wins goalie.
He's a great pick in the 11th/12th round of this draft.

For me:
First 10 rounds... 9F, 1D
Round 11/12/13/14... get your goalie and fill out the rest.

Usually I agree with your excellent breakdowns P7, but I disagree here. I would be one of those guys drafting two goalies, as I explained above. To explain further, this is because if your goalie flames out like Bob did, then there's 60 points down the drain (approx 80 down to 20). Lets go with the Wisniewski pick on D. You lose your second D pick for the season, and you only lose about 35 points. The undrafted D, if we were to do a draft again, show you that you probably would have gotten a 35 point D, whereas the goalie gives you about 50.

[Pengwin7]

Yup, with two teams, I'd hedge one to the 2G...
Once you know your draft slot, I'd pick the one on the turn for the 2G - maybe consider a Fleury/Murray tandem and pray one gets injured.
Even if one doesn't get injured, it's a decent season from Fleury.

[StuntMan12]

Theres one Manager who picked Price last year and didn't have a back up, if price produced lets say 80-90 pts then they would have made the money. I'm almost inclined to pick up another starter just in case. Injuries can break your team pretty easily

[Eskimo Brother]

Theres one Manager who picked Price last year and didn't have a back up, if price produced lets say 80-90 pts then they would have made the money. I'm almost inclined to pick up another starter just in case. Injuries can break your team pretty easily

Yeah, these leagues really can come down to how lucky you get with your players staying healthy.

[StuntMan12]

Yeah, these leagues really can come down to how lucky you get with your players staying healthy.

I talked to one guy that does well in this league and he said he just goes for the most reliable players possible, least injury prone ect. Ill stay away from the Gaboriks of the league as much as possible.

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If you guys had the #1 overall selection who would you go with? Would there be anyone here that would go with McDavid #1? or would you go with Crosby, Kane or Holtby?

[StuntMan12]

On my 2nd team that had the 20th overall selection I could have went with Nicklas Backstrom but went with McDavid, the pick looked good until McDavid went down in injury. I remember I laughed when I was going to pick him, I figured he would be a PPG player but thought everyone would laugh at me for picking him in the 1st round but nobody said anything. But you always get the managers who make picks that scratch your head, one year a guy picked Brock Nelson 8th Overall right after Tavares was picked .... hmmm lol

but ive made my share of bone head picks in years past, in this league I picked Tomas Vokoun in the 1st round, 2nd goalie selected when he went to Washington. I was convinced he would get 45-50 wins lol

[Pengwin7]

I would be one of those guys drafting two goalies, as I explained above.

So what rounds do you envision yourself taking a goalie though?
In your example, you reference only using 2D picks, because you don't care if your D2 (Wiz, say) gets injured and misses out on his full 35pts.

Well that's fine to say, but at that level, that's an "end of draft" defenseman value... i.e. 14th round.
You can't just compare losing a 14th round pick to an elite goalie (who is a 2nd/3rd round pick).
That's not apples-to-apples talk.

Here's a better way to look at it maybe.
The winning team, if all GMs spend their assets (i.e. draft picks) evenly, will have their top 11 picks counting... it doesn't matter what they are.
SOME team is going to have their top 11 picks all healthy.
This means that anybody drafting two goalies in the first 11 rounds is sacrificing value RIGHT OFF THE TOP, because one of their top 11 picks would NOT count (the 2nd goalie) and their 12th round pick would.

Does that make sense?

[Eskimo Brother]

I would have to say Crosby. He's the surest thing there. Sure McD could hit 120 points, but I want to see him play a full season first before taking him first overall in a league like this.

[Pengwin7]

Crosby for me too, agree.

[StuntMan12]

Ive been in this league for 6 seasons and have spent a total of $350 and have only cashed once for $200 so I'm down $150. Not that the money is bothering me, just keeping track, i want to be a manager that makes money every year. But either way I look at it, if you lose it's still money well spent, the draft itself is so fun its worth the money and plus keeping track of this all year makes it that much more fun

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would any of you take a guy like Braden Holtby 1st overall? in this set up he had 107 pts last season

[Pengwin7]

Do you know your draft position(s) yet?

For me, another part of winning these leagues is "doubling down".
If you go Giroux, you go Voracek too.
If you go with one Sedin, you might as well draft the other.
etc.

I equate it to rolling dice... if everybody is rolling two dice for the high score...
Would you have a better chance at beating 13 other people if you:
a) Rolled both dice, or
b) Rolled one dice... and doubled that score.

[Eskimo Brother]

So what rounds do you envision yourself taking a goalie though?
In your example, you reference only using 2D picks, because you don't care if your D2 (Wiz, say) gets injured and misses out on his full 35pts.

Well that's fine to say, but at that level, that's an "end of draft" defenseman value... i.e. 14th round.
You can't just compare losing a 14th round pick to an elite goalie (who is a 2nd/3rd round pick).
That's not apples-to-apples talk.

In typical 14-team goalie leagues, you've got 13 other managers.
10 of those are going to feel the need to get a bonafide goalie... so a certain amount goes off the board.
Even in 5 more feel the need to get a 2nd goalie, you are only 15 NHL goalies in.

You can STILL value-draft Mike Smith... or Craig Anderson probably or even Bobrovsky this year.
Those are 28 W goalies, 3 SO... 59pts.
They are going to get you 1/3rd of a season at least, 20pts... so that's max 40pts lost.

I'm just saying it's foolish to go after a 35w/5so (85pt) goalie in the early rounds and then feel like you need to cover him by drafting a 30w/3so (70pt) goalie in round 5 or even Smith/Anderson/Bob.
If your #2 round player goes down, you are screwed anyways.

Here's a better way to look at it maybe.
The winning team, if all GMs spend their assets evenly, will have their top 11 picks counting... it doesn't matter what they are.
This means that anybody drafting two goalies in the first 11 rounds is sacrificing value RIGHT OFF THE TOP.

Does that make sense?

I like what you're trying to say, and you make some good points. I think it's just my personal preferenace that disagrees with it. I would be going with a goalie in the first few rounds, both my D on the back 6 picks, and then a second goalie with the last pick.
Just how I would hedge my bets.

[StuntMan12]

Do you know your draft position(s) yet?

For me, another part of winning these leagues is "doubling down".
If you go Giroux, you go Voracek too.
If you go with one Sedin, you might as well draft the other.
etc.

I equate it to rolling dice... if everybody is rolling two dice for the high score...
Would you have a better chance at beating 13 other people if you:
a) Rolled both dice, or
b) Rolled one dice... and doubled that score.

We do draft lottery right before draft time. We pick a ball out of a hat and what ever number we select is what we start from.

but for instance this is the team that won the league and beat me by 4 pts
(dunno what round he got each player but this is his team)
590 pts
Johnny Gaudreau
Jordan Eberle
T.J. Oshie
Colin Wilson
Jaromir Jagr
Elias Lindholm
Jason Zucker
Alexander Wennberg
Chris Stewart
Anthony Duclair
Erik Karlsson (D)
Mike Green (D)
Zdeno Chara (D)
Roberto Luongo (G)

in comparison to wort team in the league

438 pts
John Tavares
Blake Wheeler
Derek Stepan
Brendan Gallagher
Matt Beleskey
Jiri Tlusty
Bryan Bickell
Nikolai Kulemin
(BLANK) - Must have been a pick that bolted to the KHL
Dennis Wideman (D)
TJ Brodie (D)
Johnny Boychuk (D)
Antti Niemi (G)
Andrew Hammond (G)

[Pengwin7]

would any of you take a guy like Braden Holtby 1st overall? in this set up he had 107 pts last season

Not for me.
I'm not a goalie person anyways.

Go back in past years and look at "the top goalie", Price 44w (2015), Varly 41w (2014), Niemi/Lundqvist/Backstrom 43w (2013), Price/Lu 38w (2011)... its just not a repeatable feat.
Expect Holtby to come back to 40w, 5so... That's 85pts.

Or, again, you can just draft Mike Smith in Round 11 and get 25w, 3so... 53pts.

32pts less, Round 1 vs. Round 11

Crosby, meanwhile, is a 85pt guy - yes. Round 1.
What do you think you'll get in Round 11... that's 20g, 30d, 90f... into the draft.
NHL Forward #90 scores about 50pts.

35pts less, Round 1 vs. Round 11

[StuntMan12]

Not for me.
I'm not a goalie person anyways.

Go back in past years and look at "the top goalie", Price 44w (2015), Varly 41w (2014), Niemi/Lundqvist/Backstrom 43w (2013), Price/Lu 38w (2011)... its just not a repeatable feat.
Expect Holtby to come back to 40w, 5so... That's 85pts.

Or, again, you can just draft Mike Smith in Round 11 and get 25w, 3so... 53pts.

32pts less, Round 1 vs. Round 11

Crosby, meanwhile, is a 85pt guy - yes. Round 1.
What do you think you'll get in Round 11... that's 20g, 30d, 90f... into the draft.
NHL Forward #90 scores about 50pts.

35pts less, Round 1 vs. Round 11

very valid points here