Aho vs. Dvorak vs. A. Nylander vs. Keller

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Yougo and I are drinking the same cocktails, it seems.

I like Dvorak and Aho to have a similar immediate impact, but I think Dvorak has the least upside of the bunch. Keller will be worth whatever wait is required.

Dvorak's junior numbers are POOR. He didn't produce meaningfully until his 18-year-old season (nearly 19), and then again when he was 19/20. That's not impressive, that's expected. His absolute ceiling is middle-6, 55-60 points in a career year.

Short term (2016/17 to 2017/18):
Aho: 40-65
Dvorak: 40-55
Keller: 0-50
Nylander: 0

Long term:
Keller: 55-85
Aho: 55-70

gap

Nylander: 40-60
Dvorak: 45-55

[Jouko-Pouko]

I am picking Dvorak at the top of this list. Followed by Keller, then Aho, then Nylander. Aho I just have no idea what to think. The SM Liiga is a men's league but how stiff is the competition if failed NHLers can finish in the top 10 in scoring? Then again to finish in the top 5 as an 18 yr old has to be impressive regardless of league calibre, right? So one would have to figure he is ahead in terms of development and playing against older/stronger players. I feel like letting someone else take that bet, though. I have a feeling about Dvorak being better than his draft position and if he had to go again, might go a heck of a lot higher than the 58th pick.

The Finnish league isn't all that high level anymore but nevertheless, Aho was really impressive this past season. He was also excellent at the World Championship and obviously at the WJC. He can play 11 of the 12 forward positions on a team (#1C being that one exception) but upside might not be huge. I see a lot of similarities to Jussi Jokinen.

I would go with Keller here despite the wait.

[rataylor22]

Yougo and I are drinking the same cocktails, it seems.

I like Dvorak and Aho to have a similar immediate impact, but I think Dvorak has the least upside of the bunch. Keller will be worth whatever wait is required.

Dvorak's junior numbers are POOR. He didn't produce meaningfully until his 18-year-old season (nearly 19), and then again when he was 19/20. That's not impressive, that's expected. His absolute ceiling is middle-6, 55-60 points in a career year.

Short term (2016/17 to 2017/18):
Aho: 40-65
Dvorak: 40-55
Keller: 0-50
Nylander: 0

Long term:
Keller: 55-85
Aho: 55-70

gap

Nylander: 40-60
Dvorak: 45-55

So would you say Dvorak is kind've like Chris Kunitz? Good enough to play with elite players but not elite himself?

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The Finnish league isn't all that high level anymore but nevertheless, Aho was really impressive this past season. He was also excellent at the World Championship and obviously at the WJC. He can play 11 of the 12 forward positions on a team (#1C being that one exception) but upside might not be huge. I see a lot of similarities to Jussi Jokinen.

I would go with Keller here despite the wait.

Why do you say Aho could be a L1 winger but not a 1C?

[fantasyhockeygeek]

So would you say Dvorak is kind've like Chris Kunitz? Good enough to play with elite players but not elite himself?

Yes, absolutely a good way to put it. He's smart and he's a good, responsible player. But the top-end gear isn't there by himself, or at least he's never proven statistically that it is. Put another way, his teammate Marner's age-adjusted junior scoring points to an absolute upside (career year, stars align, etc) in the range of 90+. Dvorak's point to 55-60 (career year, stars align, etc).

[Jouko-Pouko]

Why do you say Aho could be a L1 winger but not a 1C?

Not a natural center and not talented enough to play #1C. Wingers can be complimentary players but centers need to be driving their line.

[rataylor22]

Not a natural center and not talented enough to play #1C. Wingers can be complimentary players but centers need to be driving their line.

That's fair, was just curious.