[Trade] P.K. Subban for Shea Weber

[Axeman33]

Hahaha. Awesome. I am going to go through this and see who all thought MTL won the trade

For people to say that PK is the reason that Nashville got to the SC Finals, and that Shea Weber is the reason why Montreal got beat out in the 1st round didn't watch much of either series in my opinion. I am not saying PK hasn't been solid in the playoffs because he has, but he's not the reason the Preds got as far as they did. I'd say Pekka Rinne is the main reason. And to say that Shea Weber was the reason the Habs got beat out in the first round is false as well. He was a beast for the Habs in that first round and was probably their best player in that first round.

Here's a good article that compared both of their seasons after the trade.

http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/...art-p-k-subban

Here's some snippits:

Weber: 78 games: 17 goals, 25 assists, 42 points (0.54 PPG), 12-10-22 power-play scoring, plus-20, 25:03 average time-on-ice, 9.3 shot percentage, 157 blocks
Subban: 66 GP: 10 G, 30 A, 40 PTS (0.61 PPG), 3-13-16 power-play scoring, minus-8, 24:24 average time-on-ice, 7.0 ShPct, 104 Blk

Both defencemen put forth solid offensive seasons, though neither reached the lofty standard they’ve set in past years. Subban recorded points at a slightly higher rate and had 12 primary assists to Weber’s nine. Weber’s overall edge can be attributed to his power-play scoring and to the month his counterpart spent on the shelf. (Of course, Weber’s longevity is an asset in itself: he has missed only 24 games over the last nine seasons.)

Weber and Subban played similar minutes on teams with drastically different distribution patterns. Weber outpaced all Montreal defencemen by at least 2:57 per game, while Nashville’s first and fourth blueliners (Roman Josi and Mattias Ekholm, with Subban and Ellis in between) were separated by just 1:37.

(Claude Julien, it should be noted, curtailed Weber’s ice time by almost two full minutes after he took over as coach on Feb. 14. The defenceman averaged 25:30 in 58 games under Michel Therrien and 23:45 in his next 20 games.)

These deployment strategies — Weber-centric on one hand, balanced on the other — held true on the power play and the penalty kill. Weber led the league’s defencemen for the second straight season in power-play goals (he had 12), a category in which he tends to excel.

CORSI

Weber: 50.73 per cent close (2016-17) … 49.58 per cent close (2013-14 to 2015-16)
Subban: 54.72 per cent close (2016-17) … 51.51 per cent close (2013-14 to 2015-16)

As they typically do, the possession stats favour Subban. When he was on the ice in “close” situations — a tied or one-goal game, in which both teams’ degree of effort and risk-taking would be relatively even — the Predators generated 54.72 per cent of shot attempts, the 13th-best individual mark among defencemen in the league. (The Predators’ overall “close” shot rate was 50.49.)

The Canadiens were one of hockey’s strongest possession teams; they drove 52.16 per cent of shot attempts in close games, third in the NHL. Of the five defencemen who played more than half the season in Montreal, Weber’s close shot rate was fourth, half a percentage-point below Nathan Beaulieu.

Taken alone, Corsi is a limited stat, precisely because Beaulieu isn’t a better defenceman than Weber in any regard. Zone start rates come in handy here.

ZONE STARTS

Weber: 46.00 offensive zone start percentage (2016-17) … 47.02 (2013-14 to 2015-16)
Subban: 47.56 offensive zone start percentage (2016-17) … 49.42 (2013-14 to 2015-16)

This season, Weber lined up for 950 face-offs at 5-on-5 in an attack zone, only 46 per cent of which came when Montreal was on offence. Beaulieu, conversely, was deployed for 664 face-offs at an offensive start rate of 50.75 per cent. Weber was on the ice for more defensive draws than any Montreal defenceman, but still drove nearly 51 per cent of possession.

The draws Weber faced were also tougher than Subban’s, as is typically the case. Still, Subban lined up in the defensive zone more often than not, which makes his possession metrics look all the more remarkable. Of the 12 blueliners with higher Corsi close figures, eight started on offence at least 53 per cent of the time, and none started on defence as often as him.

QUALITY OF COMPETITION

Weber: 2.37 OppGF60; 50.75 OppGF%
Subban: 2.32 OppGF60; 50.34 OppGF%

*Numbers via Puckalytics

Just as zone starts affect the ease with which a player can drive possession, the strength of that player’s opponents is another element to weigh in considering Corsi. OppGF60 indicates how many goals Montreal and Nashville’s opponents scored per 60 minutes when Weber and Subban were off the ice; OppGF% shows the rate at which opponents scored when they were off the ice.

Weber’s OppGF60 mark is one of the very best in the league: opponents scored 2.37 goals per 60 minutes with him on the bench, 0.02 goals behind defensive leaders Jacob Larsson of Anaheim and Jaccob Slavin of Carolina. He leads Montreal defencemen comfortably in both categories. Subban’s figures are below those of Weber and Ellis, his Predators teammate.

POINT SHARES

Weber: 4.1 offensive, 6.0 defensive, 10.1 total point shares
Subban: 3.6 offensive, 2.4 defensive, 6.0 total point shares

*Numbers via Hockey Reference

Like Win Shares in baseball — the metric it’s based on — Point Shares, calculated by Hockey Reference, express the number of standings points “created” by an individual player throughout a season, accounting for goals they contribute to on offence and the rate at which goals are scored against their team when they’re on the ice.

By this metric, Weber enjoyed one of the five best seasons of his 12-year career, and one of his best defensive seasons ever. He finished fifth among defencemen in the league, behind Brent Burns (15.4), Erik Karlsson (12.9), Victor Hedman (11.6) and Drew Doughty (10.3). (He was seventh in defensive shares, 1.1 points behind the top-ranked Drew Doughty.

Subban’s season, meanwhile, was actually the least effective of his career in this regard — largely because of his injury, since Point Shares are expressed as a total rather than as a per-game rate. Subban has never produced fewer defensive point shares than now, and he’s capable of much better: his 6.6 led the league in 2014-15.

CONCLUSIONS

What have we learned? Weber and Subban have had better offensive seasons, but both tallied points at a dependable rate, Weber especially so on the power play. Subban drove possession like few others in the league, though Weber faced tougher zone starts and competition. In metrics that try to quantify defensive play, Weber came out far ahead.

Subban, who didn’t miss a regular-season game between January 2013 and March 2016, lost ground during his prolonged absence; his offensive numbers, in particular, would look stronger had he evaded injury. And Weber, of course, is further along the age curve. The website Hockey Graphs has found that a defenceman’s offensive production, both at even-strength and on the power play, tends to decline precipitously around the time he hits 32, which Weber will turn in August.

All told, though, it seems Weber did more to bolster his new club this season. His next challenge is doing so in the playoffs — and for years to come.

[Rodgort]

For people to say that PK is the reason that Nashville got to the SC Finals, and that Shea Weber is the reason why Montreal got beat out in the 1st round didn't watch much of either series in my opinion. I am not saying PK hasn't been solid in the playoffs because he has, but he's not the reason the Preds got as far as they did. I'd say Pekka Rinne is the main reason. And to say that Shea Weber was the reason the Habs got beat out in the first round is false as well. He was a beast for the Habs in that first round and was probably their best player in that first round.

Of course, but you can't argue a d-core with Josi, Ekholm, Ellis, and Subban got farther than a d-core of Josi, Ekholm, Ellis, and Weber ever did. And with that the Habs got the the East finals twice with PK as their #1 guy once (and a part of their top 6 the other), and got ousted in the first round with Weber as their #1 guy. So far.

And does that article show how PK and Ekholm shut down the other teams top opponents? I do not remember if that is the article or not, but I did see it on twitter (I will search later, unless someone saw it before)

[JagrBomb]

I've been saying this for yearssssssss Bergevin needs to be fired.

I don't even think this trade was that terrible. It was the lack of moves after it that made it bad.

You don't close your cup window (while arguably improving your odds) by making a trade like this and then not going all in.

I thought he actually made a smart move identifying the habs best window to win a cup (during Price's cheap contract), but then he goes and loads up on bottom 6ers and does nothing to address scoring + C weakness.

Had he traded Sergachev+ for Duchene or a similar C then this trade would have made complete sense, and they likely would have still been playing playoff hockey.

But now you you have Weber who won't be better than Subban for much longer (you can argue that Subban is already better), and your window is pretty much down to next year or bust.

Fire Bergevin. Get a GM that will make a bold move needed to get the Habs to the final. Losing Sergachev will hurt but not as much as realizing your window is done and the inevitable rebuild is on the way.

[rataylor22]

I've been saying this for yearssssssss Bergevin needs to be fired.

I don't even think this trade was that terrible. It was the lack of moves after it that made it bad.

You don't close your cup window (while arguably improving your odds) by making a trade like this and then not going all in.

I thought he actually made a smart move identifying the habs best window to win a cup (during Price's cheap contract), but then he goes and loads up on bottom 6ers and does nothing to address scoring + C weakness.

Had he traded Sergachev+ for Duchene or a similar C then this trade would have made complete sense, and they likely would have still been playing playoff hockey.

But now you you have Weber who won't be better than Subban for much longer (you can argue that Subban is already better), and your window is pretty much down to next year or bust.

Fire Bergevin. Get a GM that will make a bold move needed to get the Habs to the final. Losing Sergachev will hurt but not as much as realizing your window is done and the inevitable rebuild is on the way.

This is true. No point going "all-in" and then deciding not to go all in.

[Axeman33]

Of course, but you can't argue a d-core with Josi, Ekholm, Ellis, and Subban got farther than a d-core of Josi, Ekholm, Ellis, and Weber ever did. And with that the Habs got the the East finals twice with PK as their #1 guy once (and a part of their top 6 the other), and got ousted in the first round with Weber as their #1 guy. So far.

And does that article show how PK and Ekholm shut down the other teams top opponents? I do not remember if that is the article or not, but I did see it on twitter (I will search later, unless someone saw it before)

That article was all about the regular season, not the playoffs.

- - - Updated - - -

I've been saying this for yearssssssss Bergevin needs to be fired.

I don't even think this trade was that terrible. It was the lack of moves after it that made it bad.

You don't close your cup window (while arguably improving your odds) by making a trade like this and then not going all in.

I thought he actually made a smart move identifying the habs best window to win a cup (during Price's cheap contract), but then he goes and loads up on bottom 6ers and does nothing to address scoring + C weakness.

Had he traded Sergachev+ for Duchene or a similar C then this trade would have made complete sense, and they likely would have still been playing playoff hockey.

But now you you have Weber who won't be better than Subban for much longer (you can argue that Subban is already better), and your window is pretty much down to next year or bust.

Fire Bergevin. Get a GM that will make a bold move needed to get the Habs to the final. Losing Sergachev will hurt but not as much as realizing your window is done and the inevitable rebuild is on the way.

Agreed!

[Rodgort]

Ok, the article was not of both, just PK and NSH's defense

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/l...-cup-playoffs/

While Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis get a lot of attention, the pairing of P.K. Subban and Mattias Ekholm has been the Predators’ best all season long. During the playoffs, that has been more obvious than ever.

He has always been at his best come playoff time, but we’ve seen a very different player this year. It’s been talked about all year by Sportsnet insiders such as Nick Kypreos and Eric Engels that Subban has been dealing with a herniated disc in his back, and while he took some games off to rest in the middle of the season, he’s clearly still not 100 per cent.

[newfcollins]

I've been saying this for yearssssssss Bergevin needs to be fired.

I don't even think this trade was that terrible. It was the lack of moves after it that made it bad.

<Snipped a bunch>

Fire Bergevin. Get a GM that will make a bold move needed to get the Habs to the final. Losing Sergachev will hurt but not as much as realizing your window is done and the inevitable rebuild is on the way.

The problem with Bergevin is that he spent his first four years in Montreal doing nothing. He didn't have any great drafts, didn't make big moves to improve the team in the long-term, didn't sign any big free agents, etc. His first four years were making trades such as Briere for Parenteau.

After last season, the Habs core players were Subban, Plekanec, Markov, Gallagher, Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, Price, Desharnais and Eller. Bergevin brought in just one of those guys, and that was Galchenyuk. He had four years and didn't put his stamp on the team at all.

Last year, I think he realized that he needed to make some big moves. If he spent another year doing nothing and the team still sucked, he would be out of a job. That's why he traded for Weber, signed Radulov, traded for Shaw, etc. He couldn't go through another year of not doing anything.

With Subban specifically, Bergevin backed his coach over the player. And he had to trade Subban before July 1 when Subban's no-trade clause kicked in. That's why Subban was dealt when he was.

Instead of slowly rebuilding this team the way he wanted to, Bergevin tried to do it all at once. And it backfired.

As for a rebuild, if the Habs' brass believe the squad needs a rebuild in a year or two, they need to hold on Sergachev. You can't trade him for someone like Duchene (who can walk in a couple of years) and then do a rebuild.

[rataylor22]

The problem with Bergevin is that he spent his first four years in Montreal doing nothing. He didn't have any great drafts, didn't make big moves to improve the team in the long-term, didn't sign any big free agents, etc. His first four years were making trades such as Briere for Parenteau.

After last season, the Habs core players were Subban, Plekanec, Markov, Gallagher, Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, Price, Desharnais and Eller. Bergevin brought in just one of those guys, and that was Galchenyuk. He had four years and didn't put his stamp on the team at all.

Last year, I think he realized that he needed to make some big moves. If he spent another year doing nothing and the team still sucked, he would be out of a job. That's why he traded for Weber, signed Radulov, traded for Shaw, etc. He couldn't go through another year of not doing anything.

With Subban specifically, Bergevin backed his coach over the player. And he had to trade Subban before July 1 when Subban's no-trade clause kicked in. That's why Subban was dealt when he was.

Instead of slowly rebuilding this team the way he wanted to, Bergevin tried to do it all at once. And it backfired.

As for a rebuild, if the Habs' brass believe the squad needs a rebuild in a year or two, they need to hold on Sergachev. You can't trade him for someone like Duchene (who can walk in a couple of years) and then do a rebuild.

Tell the Ottawa Senators how you can't trade future for now.

[newfcollins]

Tell the Ottawa Senators how you can't trade future for now.

No problem.

Hey Ottawa Senators, you can't trade the future for now. So don't go trading your potential future stud players such as Colin White and Thomas Chabot.

I hope they're listening.

[rataylor22]

No problem.

Hey Ottawa Senators, you can't trade the future for now. So don't go trading your potential future stud players such as Colin White and Thomas Chabot.

I hope they're listening.

They traded prospects for players to help them now. Guess you missed that part.

They didn't need someone like Duchene, so they didn't have to trade someone like Chabot.

But I'm sure Canadiens fans love all that potential and the dust on their 1993 banner.

[newfcollins]

They traded prospects for players to help them now. Guess you missed that part.

They didn't need someone like Duchene, so they didn't have to trade someone like Chabot.

But I'm sure Canadiens fans love all that potential and the dust on their 1993 banner.

No I caught it. This year they traded all their great prospects such as Jonathan Dahlen, Curtis Lazar and ummm... Zack Stortini? Buddy Robinson? Future considerations?

Also, the Sens were in on trying to land Duchene as well. So were other teams. And they all decided the (reported) asking price was too high.

And Montreal doesn't need Duchene. They need a #1 centre that can score. Not a 55-point player. Duchene would not have helped the Habs in the playoffs.

Nice joke with the dust. I may have to steal that one.

[lucafen4]

I rarely say anything positive about the Sens, but considering the moves they made, giving up B level prospects while getting to game 7 of the conference finals - I would consider those trades and 'lost assets' a success. Signing Burrows makes that pill of losing Dahlin easier to swallow because now it's a hockey trade, not a rental. What Burrows is over the next 3 years, well - that's a different thread.

With Mtl... they could have had Bozak a lot cheaper than Duchene. maybe Sergachev 1-1. heh (that was 50% joke, cuz I wouldn't rule that price tag out at the deadline). Bergy needs to go though, agreed, but who is francophone that can replace him?

[Kofax]

Bergevin is best known as a player for throwing the puck into his own net in that one STL/SJS playoff game right?

Apt metaphor for his tenure as GM in Montreal? Signs point to YES!

[agentzero]

He threw it all in... Poor Roman Turek....

[Kofax]

He threw it all in... Poor Roman Turek....

You have to love Pronger's reaction, as quite likely the only player other than Bergevin to have known exactly what just happened.

Skates straight to the bench in complete disgust. Surprised he didn't drop Bergevin with an elbow once he got there.