NFL Playoff Challenge - nfl.com

[PenguinHunter]

Hello everyone,

Just curious to see if anyone has participated in the nfl.com playoff challenge in prior years?

If so, what is the best strategy?

I am thinking of picking players from the first round that I think can make it 2 or 3 rounds. Then pick new players when these players lose out.

Is it better to go with teams with a bye that I hope to make it to the SuperBowl? And take 0 on the scoreboard in round one and hope double and triple points make up for the difference in the later rounds.

[PenguinHunter]

Two different rosters I am considering:

Palmer, Johnson, Lacy, Fitzgerald, J. Brown, Gronkowski, Gostowski, Cardinals D - Hoping the Cardinals/Pats make it to the Superbowl and get bonus round points even though getting 0 in first round.

Wilson, Hill, Lynch, Baldwin, Green, Eifert, Haushcka, Seahawks D - Hoping these teams make it into round two, and maybe three.... then change players after.

Any suggestions?

[Zorro]

Do the Patriots win there 1st game?? That O-line is like swiss cheese..

[2014olympicgold]

I’d avoid Cincy players. No Dalton and against the Steelers, plus they aren’t the best in the playoffs.

[Pengwin7]

Any strategy has to assume that your players can go as far as possible without being eliminated (by other players you pick).
So it starts with correctly guessing some full NFL playoffs outcome.
I think EVERY pick you make has to go 3 rounds, for that strong 3x multiplier in that last round.
That means FOUR teams, you should be picking from FOUR teams and FOUR teams only.

Here's some math on picking (consider 100yards in every game):
Option 1. Pick a WildCard team to go all four rounds. 1x, 2x, 3x, 4x. 10x total stats.
Option 2. Pick a WildCard team to go three rounds, then lose with new SuperBowl Pick. 1x, 2x, 3x, 1x. 7x total stats.
Option 3. Wait on BYE team to go three rounds. 2x, 3x, 4x. 9x total stats. <------ This is my preference, since pickes can only get 7x (+1x) if they have to switch picks.
Option 4. Pick a WildCard team, that loses first round, then jump to BYE team players. 1x, 1x, 2x, 3x. 7x total stats.

The BIG points are in QBs/WRs... so I'm gonna use my multipliers on them.
I have little faith in RBs in this year's playoff teams pounding it weekly, so I'll use different strategy there.

Here's the one I'll go with:
AFC wild card winners: 4-HOU, 3-CIN. (Do I really think these teams will win, probably not... but I simply want to be in the minority of common picks)
AFC Divisional: 4-HOU, 2-NE. (Same thing, I don't actually think this will happen, but I have to commit to one outcome).
NFC wild card winners: 4-WAS, 3-MIN.
NFC Divisional: 4-WAS, 2-ARI.
Super Bowl: 2-ARI vs. 2-NE. (Again, I don't really know if this will happen, but I have to guess).

My team (just submitted):
QB. Brady-NE (3% start). I don't care, Brady is a beast for passing yards in playoffs and I want to be in this 3% group for his 3 games.
RB. Blue-HOU (1% start). I guess nobody thinks HOU can beat the hot KC team. I don't care. I love the prospect of getting into a 1% group of pickers.
RB. A.Morris-WAS (1% start). Again, I'm going with the low% pick options. I'm trying to get into the smallest pick group possible.
WR. Edelman-NE (7% start). It only makes sense that a person picks the top WR linked to their QB.
WR. J.Brown-ARI (1% start). Well, I've committed to ARI in the super bowl, so I need to have some of their picks here.
TE. Gronkowski-NE (21% start). Sometimes you gotta make a pick just to keep pace.
K. Catanzaro-ARI (2% start). Coulda gone with Gostkowski, but I'd rather have a 2% guy than a 10% guy, again, just to put me in a small group.
DEF. New England (1% start). Well, I've got them in 3 rounds... and at 1% pick, I'll take it.

Odds that anybody has this exact team:
.03 x .01 x .01 x .07 x .01 x .21 x .02 x .01 = 0.000 000 000 000 088
If there are 10 million teams, the number of teams with these EXACT same player: NONE.


I'm looking to get 2x,3x,4x multipliers out of my NE/ARI players. That's 9x their 3-game stats... and anybody that doesn't BUY on them in 1st round, can't catch me.
I'm looking to get 1x,2x,3x multipliers out of Blue(HOU)/Morris(WAS)... and I'll replace them in Super Bowl with whatever "long-shot" I need to catch the leader. (This itself, is a key strategy-planner: You need a catch-up guy.)

[PenguinHunter]

Any strategy has to assume that your players can go as far as possible without being eliminated (by other players you pick).
So it starts with correctly guessing some full NFL playoffs outcome.
I think EVERY pick you make has to go 3 rounds, for that strong 3x multiplier in that last round.
That means FOUR teams, you should be picking from FOUR teams and FOUR teams only.

Here's some math on picking (consider 100yards in every game):
Option 1. Pick a WildCard team to go all four rounds. 1x, 2x, 3x, 4x. 10x total stats.
Option 2. Pick a WildCard team to go three rounds, then lose with new SuperBowl Pick. 1x, 2x, 3x, 1x. 7x total stats.
Option 3. Wait on BYE team to go three rounds. 2x, 3x, 4x. 9x total stats. <------ This is my preference, since pickes can only get 7x (+1x) if they have to switch picks.
Option 4. Pick a WildCard team, that loses first round, then jump to BYE team players. 1x, 1x, 2x, 3x. 7x total stats.

The BIG points are in QBs/WRs... so I'm gonna use my multipliers on them.
I have little faith in RBs in this year's playoff teams pounding it weekly, so I'll use different strategy there.

Here's the one I'll go with:
AFC wild card winners: 4-HOU, 3-CIN. (Do I really think these teams will win, probably not... but I simply want to be in the minority of common picks)
AFC Divisional: 4-HOU, 2-NE. (Same thing, I don't actually think this will happen, but I have to commit to one outcome).
NFC wild card winners: 4-WAS, 3-MIN.
NFC Divisional: 4-WAS, 2-ARI.
Super Bowl: 2-ARI vs. 2-NE. (Again, I don't really know if this will happen, but I have to guess).

My team (just submitted):
QB. Brady-NE (3% start). I don't care, Brady is a beast for passing yards in playoffs and I want to be in this 3% group for his 3 games.
RB. Blue-HOU (1% start). I guess nobody thinks HOU can beat the hot KC team. I don't care. I love the prospect of getting into a 1% group of pickers.
RB. A.Morris-WAS (1% start). Again, I'm going with the low% pick options. I'm trying to get into the smallest pick group possible.
WR. Edelman-NE (7% start). It only makes sense that a person picks the top WR linked to their QB.
WR. J.Brown-ARI (1% start). Well, I've committed to ARI in the super bowl, so I need to have some of their picks here.
TE. Gronkowski-NE (21% start). Sometimes you gotta make a pick just to keep pace.
K. Catanzaro-ARI (2% start). Coulda gone with Gostkowski, but I'd rather have a 2% guy than a 10% guy, again, just to put me in a small group.
DEF. New England (1% start). Well, I've got them in 3 rounds... and at 1% pick, I'll take it.

Odds that anybody has this exact team:
.03 x .01 x .01 x .07 x .01 x .21 x .02 x .01 = 0.000 000 000 000 088
If there are 10 million teams, the number of teams with these EXACT same player: NONE.


I'm looking to get 2x,3x,4x multipliers out of my NE/ARI players. That's 9x their 3-game stats... and anybody that doesn't BUY on them in 1st round, can't catch me.
I'm looking to get 1x,2x,3x multipliers out of Blue(HOU)/Morris(WAS)... and I'll replace them in Super Bowl with whatever "long-shot" I need to catch the leader. (This itself, is a key strategy-planner: You need a catch-up guy.)

Thanks for sharing. Definitely an 'All-In' strategy!' Thanks!