Is now the time to pounce on Dougie Hamilton?

[sueperfly7]

Dougie is sitting on my free agent pile, and he's down to 48.6% ownership in ESPN leagues.

My league categories: G, A, Plus-Minus, PIM, ATOI, SOG, STP.

I've found that ATOI in particular is a must-have for a defenseman. The contenders rarely have any D getting fewer than 21 minutes a game, so it's no surprise that Dougie was dropped when he dipped as low as 12:07 a few weeks ago, with other games in the neighborhood of 15 and 16 minutes.

But now Dougie has averaged ~21 minutes over his last seven games. His plus-minus is still -5, but he's +6 over his last 19 games played, and Calgary as a team seems to be improving based on wins recently against Chicago, Dallas and Boston. And best of all, he's averaged 3 SOG/game over his last ten games. Is now the time to pounce in one-year leagues?

If he can keep getting minutes and SOGs as he has been in the recent stretch, I think he's worth owning over my worst D, Spurgeon, regardless of his point totals. But if his opportunities start to slip back to previous levels, I'm going to be bitter about letting Spurgeon go in a league where defensemen who get decent TOI are coveted.

Even ignoring my league's stats and my player decision (Hamilton vs. Spurgeon), is Dougie Hamilton someone people view as a buy low in one-year leagues? I'm getting the itch, mostly because of his SOGs and respectable bump in minutes and plus-minus. Is this stretch the new norm? Is there room for him to be even better this year and with this Calgary lineup?

Thanks for any thoughts.

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P.S. Despite my Bouwmeester profile pic, I'm not a Calgary fan and haven't watched the team that much this season.

[Nikerato]

Yes I would agree with everything you said.

He's somehow getting those minutes despite being sheltered (although less sheltered than before). At least the coach trusts him during 3v3 OT.

I would not expect a drop off in his level of play from here on out (so that bodes well for his TOI and stuff). Something around a 30-35pt pace definitely seems realistic given his stats and usage. Is there room for better than that? Sure, but I wouldn't bet on it.

I'd rather take Hamilton over Spurgeon in any league.

[sueperfly7]

Thanks, Rep'd. I can't get over just how crowded the Calgary blue line looks, and Brodie has done his part to earn back the spot alongside Giordano. But as long as the consensus is that Hamilton won't go backwards in terms of TOI and PP opportunities, I'd be happy enough with his current roto production to add him.

[sueperfly7]

For what it's worth, in a points-only league, I think I'd take Spurgeon. While acknowledging Hamilton's growing role, Spurgeon has 14 points in 25 games compared to Dougie's 7 points in 26. Plus obviously Suter is lobbying internally to keep Spurgeon as a partner after his complaints to the media last week. And Spurgeon is getting the 2nd most PP time of any defenseman on the Wild. I think Spurgeon would be underrated if not for the fact that he's allergic to shooting the puck.

[Nikerato]

Keep in mind that Spurgeon is a total band-aid boy.

I guess it will be close in one-year roto leagues, but I'd still take Hamilton haha. Minny's second PP unit is nothing to write home about, and only Suter gets all the juicy PP1 time. I'd peg them both at somewhere around 30pts to end the season at this point (Spurgeon will do it in less games), but Hamilton has more upside right now and going forward imo.

[Pengwin7]

It's a good time to grab Dougie.
I agree, on watching the Flames last 3-4 games (I own CGY goalies, unfortunately)... he's looked really good.
Finally starting to find his groove - and with Russell being scratched, Dougie knows he's a top four guy, he knows when to jump.

Hopefully CGY keeps him with Wideman on D2 pairing instead of forcing Russell back with him.
That A1 on the Gaudreau OT-winner vs. BOS should do good things for his confidence.

I can see him being a very solid D3/D4 in most leagues for remainder of fantasy season.

[Big Ev]

Not a Dougie fan personally. Never been sold on the upside. Always viewed him like I do Jay Bouwmeester, but worse defensively by a lot. Hamilton was propped up by Chara, that's it.

[sueperfly7]

Ev, can you elaborate on your Bouwmeester comparison? Just really tall guys who are a little soft and/or not as offensive-minded as advertised? I personally think of Hamilton as much more likely to get up into the play than JayBo. And Hamilton shoots more than the Calgary and St. Louis versions of JayBo.