Trying to Learn the Ropes, Need Advice Please!

[stefan17]

I'm learning, strictly playing for free right now. I've done 2 days. First day i came 35/50 and last night finished 8/50. My only mistake was choosing Gibson when my gut told me Bernier.

[Mr. Guru]

Are you guys having fun winning $8 dollars?

[Bergy80]

Mr. Guru, if I was playing with the intentions of getting rich I suppose I wouldn't be having fun. I AM playing for fun though and it's serving it's purpose. Of course I'd love to win a big jackpot amount at some point, but for now yes I'm having fun.

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Last night went well. I win a little over $13. Still debating on my goalie choice tonight. Between Crawford and Allen. When I last looked neither was confirmed to be starting so we'll see. Thinking of going with STL/CHI/TB mixes for skaters. Still thinking....

[Mr. Guru]

Good. I'm happy for you.

[Bergy80]

Ok, so my current method of attack clearly is not working. I continue to break even, but no big wins. Starting tonight I'm experimenting a bit. I'm going strictly with underdog teams/players to try to get the less ownership advantage. We'll see how it goes. I'm sure I'll lose some, but I need to shake things up.

[dooley89]

I continue to break even, but no big wins.

That's all you have to do, man!
There is no sure way to win but if you can break even you get to try again at hitting that miracle lineup!

[kytmagic]

Ok, so my current method of attack clearly is not working. I continue to break even, but no big wins. Starting tonight I'm experimenting a bit. I'm going strictly with underdog teams/players to try to get the less ownership advantage. We'll see how it goes. I'm sure I'll lose some, but I need to shake things up.

I've gone on an absolutely crazy run myself, going from $25 all the way to $1100 recently. I think you should definitely experiment since to my knowledge, no one really has a real clue as to what to do in NHL DFS. I actually think there's more skill than people give it credit for. I am nowhere close to having it all figured out but I'm constantly seeing mistakes people make with their lineup construction.

Just because this game has high variance where you can go weeks without winning does not mean there is no skill, especially if you're joining those really large GPPs, Bergy.

Don't give up and keep learning!

[Bergy80]

I've gone on an absolutely crazy run myself, going from $25 all the way to $1100 recently. I think you should definitely experiment since to my knowledge, no one really has a real clue as to what to do in NHL DFS. I actually think there's more skill than people give it credit for. I am nowhere close to having it all figured out but I'm constantly seeing mistakes people make with their lineup construction.

Just because this game has high variance where you can go weeks without winning does not mean there is no skill, especially if you're joining those really large GPPs, Bergy.

Don't give up and keep learning!

What do you mean by constantly seeing mistakes in other people’s lineups?

I haven’t given up, I’m still having fun with, just trying to unlock the secret to making the accidental winning lineup. Haha!

[kytmagic]

What do you mean by constantly seeing mistakes in other people’s lineups?

I haven’t given up, I’m still having fun with, just trying to unlock the secret to making the accidental winning lineup. Haha!

My expertise has mainly been in GPPs. Examples of obvious mistakes that I'm sure you've been avoiding are:

- Not entering lineup in time
- Picking a goalie who isn't even slated to play
- Picking skaters that are playing against your chosen goalie

It's been asked a lot by people whether you should go more with a hi-lo approach or a more balanced one when it comes to salary, meaning is it better to play Ovechkin and a really cheap guy or two medium guys. I think the second option is far superior.

I also don't think a lot of people are stacking players on the same team that play together sometimes.

[Bergy80]

I've never not managed to enter a lineup in time so I'm clear there. I fell into the trap once of picking a goalie who didn't play. The site I was looking at said "likely", but not "confirmed" so I gambled and lost. And, picking skaters against my chosen goalie was a mistake I made in the beginning. I figured out that mistake on the first night. Haha!

I definitely agree with you going with several medium guys over one superstar and cheap guys. I've felt that way LONG before I started playing DFS. I prefer having balance spread around. Of course, I will say that I also fell into the trap of always drafting Kane, Ovechkin, Stamkos, etc and suffering elsewhere in my lineups. I'll still take them now and then if I feel the time is right, but usually I tend to skip on them.

Now I have a question regarding ownership percentages. If you constantly pick the lower owned players, wouldn't that often times be like choosing the underdog players? Would this result in you losing more often than not? Of course I understand when it works it's a big win, but for some reason I'm having a hard time grasping how the low ownership percentages work in one's favor. Also, do you try to use up your full salary?

I'm going with two lineups tonight. Only entering them in 2 contests. The $2 $2K and a $2 50/50 to hopefully break even if the big pot doesn't work well. Here's my tentative lineups. I'm focusing on what I think should be lower owned players... and perhaps the underdogs of the night.

[kytmagic]

Low ownership only applies to GPPs. The most simple example is the following. Prize is top heavy. Let's say top prize is $1000. Assume you only need to pick one guy to win. 9 guys pick Ovechkin. You pick Pacioretty. If Ovechkin does well, 9 guys have to split the $1000 prize. If Patches does well, you win it all. The math works out that even if Ovechkin is the better player, your best move is to play Patches.

However, that's just the really dumbed down version of it and it's still up for debate how many low owned elements you should have in your lineup. Again, low ownership mainly matters for GPP because the prize structure is top heavy. You don't get rewarded as much in a 50/50.

I'll try to update my blog more often with my thoughts. I'm still learning.

[Bergy80]

Thanks for dumbing it down. I honestly needed it and it helps to understand it better.

So, I think I have my lineups set for tonight. I posted them earlier, but edited it out of the post because I decided to go a different route. So... here they are. Do you see anything glaringly wrong with them? Again, I'm entering both in a $2 $2k contest and a $2 50/50 to hopefully break even at least.

Lineup 1: (primarily to focus on the Avs 2nd PP unit)
N. MacKinnon
C. Soderberg
S. Doan
J. Iginla
A. Tanguay
F. Beachemin
O. Ekman-Larsson
A. Montoya
B. Wheeler

Lineup 2: (Buffs 1st PP unit)
A. Barkov
S. Reinhart
T. Hertl
J. McGinn
R. O'Reilly
R. Ristolainen
M. Vlasic
A. Montoya
B. Burns

[kytmagic]

Looks good to me. I only play GPPs so keep that in mind.

[Bergy80]

Well, my hunch for going with the Avs worked out pretty well, but my choice of goalie did not. *sigh* I was especially happy with Tanguay's score. I felt as though getting 1pt out of him would be a success. Seems I always fall into this trap. Good skaters, not so good goalie or good goalie, not so good skaters. Not sure if there's a way around that or not (in terms of researching in a different way), but it surely is frustrating.



Not sure which way I want to go tonight.

[kytmagic]

Well, my hunch for going with the Avs worked out pretty well, but my choice of goalie did not. *sigh* I was especially happy with Tanguay's score. I felt as though getting 1pt out of him would be a success. Seems I always fall into this trap. Good skaters, not so good goalie or good goalie, not so good skaters. Not sure if there's a way around that or not (in terms of researching in a different way), but it surely is frustrating.



Not sure which way I want to go tonight.

Just variance dude. A goalie is almost close to a coin-flip to winning his game, so unless you are INSANE at coin-flipping, you're setting your goals too high. Did you cash? I was able to win a $100 ticket for tonight with a Buffalo stack on top of stacking Chad Johnson.