2015/2016 Goalie Rankings (Forums Consensus)

[Pengwin7]

I did this last year, so let's do it again.

Here's how it works,
1. If you see a goalie you think should be ranked higher, say so (above who? how many slots would you slide him up?)
2. If you see a goalie you think should be ranked lower, say so (below who? how many slots would you slide him down?


The starting list will be based on the ADP of goalies from the four (4) Dobber Leagues counting W, GAA, SV. (SV% is not a cat, but it is essentially factored in via having both GAA & need for SV)

Tier Ia:
1. Price (ADP 4.8)
Tier Ib:
2. Lundqvist (ADP 14.8)
3. Holtby (ADP 15.8)
4. Rinne (ADP 18.5)
5. Quick (ADP 20.3)

Tier IIa:
6. Rask (ADP 23.5)
7. Fleury (ADP 24.0)
8. Bishop (ADP 28.0)
9. Dubnyk (ADP 29.3)
Tier IIb:
10. Bobrovsky (ADP 37.5)
11. Schneider (ADP 44.3)
12. Crawford (ADP 45.0)
Tier IIc:
13. Andersen (ADP 52.0)
14. Halak (ADP 53.8)
15. Luongo (ADP 58.3)

Tier IIIa:
16. Varlamov (ADP 68.8)
17. Mason (ADP 70.8)
18. Anderson (ADP 72.0)
Tier IIIb:
19. Miller (ADP 97.3)
20. Elliott (ADP 99.0)
21. Allen (ADP 99.5)
Tier IIIc:
22. Hiller (ADP 121.0)
23. Talbot (ADP 121.3)
24. Howard (ADP 146.0)
25. Jones (ADP 146.8)
26. Mrazek (ADP 149.0)
27. Pavelec (ADP 149.0)
28. Niemi (ADP 154.8)
29. Lehtonen* (ADP 194.5)

Tier IVa: (goalies on bad teams)
30. M-Smith (ADP 178.0)
31. Bernier (ADP 180.0)
32. Lehner (ADP 218.3)
Tier IVb: (timeshare goalies)
33. Hammond (ADP 220.3)
34. Ramo (ADP 226.8)
35. Lack (ADP 245.5)
36. Stalock (ADP 246.8)
Tier IVc: (back-ups on good teams)
37. Vasilevskiy-inj (ADP 253.1)
38. Darling (ADP 255.5)
39. Raanta (ADP 275.0)
40. Hutchinson (ADP 283.8)

Tier V: (unknown value)
41. Cam Ward (ADP 273.0)
42. John Gibson (ADP 312.4)
43. Jacob Markstrom (ADP 312.4)
44. Michal Neuvirth (ADP 318.9)
45. Jeff Zatkoff (ADP 319.5)
46. Ben Scrivens (ADP 325.7)
47. Jhonas Enroth (ADP 330.2)
48. Anton Khudobin (ADP 331.0)
49. Darcy Kuemper (ADP 333.3)

[RizzeeDizzee]

List checks out well, thanks for assembling.

I don't quite understand the statement about SV% being factored in though. I'm not the best at analogies, but let's say GAA is calories and SV is fat, while SV% is saturated fat. Although in many cases SV% will track or be influenced by the combination of calories and fat, it won't always, at least from my perspective.

That having been said, it takes nothing away from how useful the list is - a great resource for sure.

[stotan]

I assume this is for one-year leagues? If so...

I'd move Holtby (3) right above Lundqvist (2).
I'd move Fleury (7) right above Quick (5).
I'd move Anderson (18) right above Luongo (15).
I'd move Hiller (22) right above Elliot (20).

This is a cool idea!

[Axeman33]

For my own personal preference:

Quick is too high. Should be down just below Bobrovsky.

I'd flip-flop Schneider and Crawford.

I'd move Luongo up right behind Schneider.

I'd also flip-flop Anderson and Varlamov.

I'd also move Ramo above Mike Smith.

[rambOwned]

Completely agree that Price is in a tier of his own this year.

Lundqvist down to 4 above Quick in Ib. I don't think he plays as many games as the other guys in the tier and NYR has 17 b2b games this year. You need your studs to play as many games as they can.
Rask down to 9 in IIa. That defence scares me. Don't see him getting anywhere near the wins as the other guys in the tier.
Andersen up to 10 in IIb. How is this guy so underrated? Going to be a steal for many people especially with Gibson out of the picture for this year.

[JagrBomb]

is this keeper rankings or one year? based on your title i'm assuming it's the latter.

so in that case i'd definitely move andersen up. not sure if he'll be the long term starter but next year he will definitely be gold.

i'd move andersen and crawford into tier 2a (i can't see how dubnyk is two tiers better than those two). halak i'd move to tier 2 b, and luongo i'd demote to tier 3a. and i'd demote schneider to as the devils will be horrible next year. and then get rid of tier 2c.

so:

Tier IIa: (very good goalie on bad team or good goalie on very good team)
6. Rask (ADP 23.5)
7. Fleury (ADP 24.0)
8. Bishop (ADP 28.0)
9. Dubnyk (ADP 29.3)
13. Andersen (ADP 52.0)
12. Crawford (ADP 45.0)


Tier IIb: (good goalie on good team)
10. Bobrovsky (ADP 37.5)
14. Halak (ADP 53.8)



Tier IIIa: (good goalie on bad team, average goalie on average team)

11. Schneider (ADP 44.3)
16. Varlamov (ADP 68.8)
17. Mason (ADP 70.8)
15. Luongo (ADP 58.3)



havent really looked at the rest of the list but i think those changes are the main ones i'd care about

[BranDOOM]

Sweet thread - thanks for the efforts with this. Love the tier a, b, c breakdowns where applicable.
Dont we all love granularity!

[Pengwin7]

is this keeper rankings or one year? based on your title i'm assuming it's the latter.

Since the thread is in the One-Year-League sub-Forum, it's intended as a one-year ranking.

[TheWhale]

For this season, I really like Dubnyk. So much so that I would move him above Rask.

[Pengwin7]

Great replies.

A category removed here, a category added here, it can definitely cause a guy to move 3-5 spots.
Schneider is a beast in SV/SV% leagues, but not so great in W-heavy leagues.
He's one of the hardest guys to peg, because he could be a top 5 goalie (SV% heavy leagues) to a 15-20 goalie (W heavy leagues).

Some other guys are polarizing like that too.
And it's very hard to rank back-ups & time-share guys... depends on daily-set or MaxGP or... ROTO vs. H2H can make a huge difference too.

Scheduling alone gives Andersen(ANA) & Crawford(CHI) & Darling(CHI) a value-bump in many one year leagues when one is trying to avoid goalie conflicts.

A lot of factors for goalies... so not surprised to have a great variance in where people slot them for their own drafts.

Keep the comments coming.

[MarmotKing]

This is a very interesting list. How well could it be applied to wins (and SO) only leagues?

[Pengwin7]

This is a very interesting list. How well could it be applied to wins (and SO) only leagues?

I would say it doesn't apply well to those leagues at all.
W/SO leagues are (so simple that) just a prediction of W/SO is enough to rank goalies.
Wins & Shutouts can be linearly valued from 0.00.
They are very simple to calculate a "category score" for each of W & SO and then combine.
Dobber has predictions for both - assign some score/factor to each... and combine to create a projected rank... easy peezy.


Leagues that include GAA/SV%... yeesh... there's a whole different monster.
I absolutely DARE anybody to come up with an algorithm to weight "category score" on GAA or SV%. (I have one, but I'm not confident it is dependable.)

As an example... what's better for a fantasy team's GAA in a start-2G roto league?... in a start-2G H2H league?:
a) A goalie playing 65 games with a 2.35gaa, or
b) A goalie playing 45 games with a 2.25gaa

There is stat-crunching in GAA/SV% category leagues that even I am still struggling with valuing...

[MarmotKing]

I would say it doesn't apply well to those leagues at all.
W/SO leagues are (so simple that) just a prediction of W/SO is enough to rank goalies.
Wins & Shutouts can be linearly valued from 0.00.
They are very simple to calculate a "category score" for each of W & SO and then combine.
Dobber has predictions for both - assign some score/factor to each... and combine to create a projected rank... easy peezy.

Thanks. That's what I thought. I'll just use his list and tweek with my preferences.

[chuckcouples]

People are going to disagree with this statement but I will try and back up my reasoning.

Based on the scoring system, I would move Price down a notch. He is not in a class of his own because he won't face as many shots as a few of the other goalies. Last season, which was Price's best by a long ways, he only finished 4th in saves. I can't see him playing more this year with Tokarski being a solid back up. I also don't expect him to lead the NHL in wins this year. It's also been 8 seasons since a goalie has repeated as the Vezina winner so odds are that another goalie is the best in the NHL this upcoming season.

With that said, would Price still be the first goalie I pick in a one year league? Yes but I would not be picking him if Holtby, Lundqvist, Rask, Dubnyk, Bobrovsky, Fleury, Crawford are still available.

In addition to that, I would move Quick down to IIb #9. Quick hasn't been in the top 5 in the NHL for wins or saves since 2011/12 and I don't see that changing this season. He's barely cracked the top 10 in either of those stats in the past 5 years. I would move Bobrovsky up to tier IIa. He's a great goalie and Columbus should be one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference if they stay healthy.

[Zorro]

Is Ramo the goalie to own in Calgary??