Toughest Keep One Post: Schneider, Bishop, or Dubnyk- REPS FOR REPLIES

[skotchek]

This is a tough one. Keep one goalie in a league that counts W, SV, SO, GAA, SV%, and 5 of 19 stats are goalie points. I've thought about this and have literally been set on all of these guys, until changing my mind again and again and again (I actually have gone back to edit this because I changed my mind, AGAIN). Of the majority of the fantasy rankings I have seen, Bishop seems to be the highest ranked on average. I have seen lists that have ranked both Dubnyk and Bishop as high as #3, and I've seen them both out of the top-10. I have also seen Schneider in the top-10, but most lists don't give him much respect.

Cory Schneider - 69 games played (26 W, 1834 saves, 5 SO, 2.26 GAA, .925 SV%): he is the safest pick in my opinion in terms of knowing what I am getting. On a team with almost no defense, he posted seriously good numbers. He has no competition from a backup, and will probably play a ton of games again. I just can't get over the fact that the Devils will likely be a lottery team again, did nothing in the off season, and I don't know of too many fantasy leagues won with a goalie on a such a bad team. With all the goalie stats counted in my league, he may be the best pick.

Ben Bishop- 62 games played (40 W, 1484 saves, 4 SO, 2.32 GAA, .916 SV%): I was shocked to find after doing my research that Bishop's numbers were average, with the exception of wins (#4). The benefit of picking Bishop is obviously the Lightning are one of the league's best and he will win a ton of games, but I don't know if his stats are going to win me head-to-head match-ups.

Devan Dubnyk - 58 games played (36 W, 1625 saves, 6 SO, 2.07 GAA, .929 SV%): this is the "sexiest" pick, but also the riskiest. When he was traded to the Wild last year, I picked him up needing a #3. He quickly became the best player on my whole roster. Like everyone else, I don't know whether he will have those upper-echelon numbers again though, but I am not the utmost authority on the Western Conference or the Wild. I do remember that before he was on the team, the Wild were looking awful, and that concerns me. That has not happened to Bishop during his time in Tampa. Dubnyk also hasn't played a full season with this team. Maybe I am putting too much thought into this, it's just very hard to let a player go who could have won the Vezina had it not been for Carey Price's season.

My pick, for now, is Dubnyk. What does everyone else think?

[The Comish]

A real pickle here. I think Dubnyk is legit and in a very good situation. The team is very good and the backup isn't about to usurp DD. He'll give you fantastic numbers across the board. I own Bishop and Schneider in other pools and have every confidence in both of them as well, but I just feel that Dubnyk is the best play here. I also think Howard can reclaim his starting role, so if you can't deal him, I'm all for redrafting him.

[VincentVega]

I think I'll go with Dubnyk here as well. Schneider is the best goalie but Minny is so much better than NJ that Dubnyk will likely give you better numbers. Bishop is an interesting option too, mainly because of the team he plays for but I like Minny's defensive system better.

[metaldude26]

Bishop for me. I don't trust Dubnyk enough yet. Bishop's in my top five.

[The Bottlenecker]

Bishop's stock took a bump up with the news that his backup, Vasilevsky, is going to be out for 2-3 months. It wasn't like Bishop was going to lose a lot of starts to Vas, but this solidifies his starting position even more. Plus, he play for a very good team. I don't fully trust Dubnyk yet, and Schneider may be the best goalie of the three, but his team isn't going to secure him many wins.

[skotchek]

Does anyone think Bishop's numbers will improve? If he was just a bit better in the GAA and SV % categories, he'd be the pick...

[metaldude26]

Does anyone think Bishop's numbers will improve? If he was just a bit better in the GAA and SV % categories, he'd be the pick...

The difference between Bishop last season (.916 Sv%, 2.32 GAA) and Bishop the season before (.924 Sv%, 2.23 GAA) was three goals over virtually the same number of minutes. I think an improvement is well within the margin of error though his career averages of .918 Sv% and 2.37 GAA are safe bets. But if he's good for 38+ Wins and 4+ shutouts, numbers like that push him into top-five range because of how safe a pick he is.

[Avalanche_Ambush]

The way i see the 3 are:

-Bishop plays on a powerhouse offensive team. He'll get you the most wins. I do think he;s an elite goalie whose peripherals will improve compared to last year. His gaa will be comparible to schneider and dubbie. His sv% may be slightly lower but in the same ball park as the other 2. He's the bigger bandaid boy of the 3 and has a stud prospect breathing down his neck (vasilevsky)

-dubnyk plays on arguably the top defensive team in the league so his gaa will be great. people think he sucks because in their eyes he only played well in the half a year he played in minny, but sucked the rest of his career-thats not true because if you look at his sv% (the true indicator of a goalies skill) for the years he played in edmonton they were quite impressive given the d corps and the teams offensive style of play (excluding his final year in edmonton his sv%'s were .916/.914/.921).he has only darcy keumper challenging his job.

-schneider will have the least wins of the 3 only due to the lack of goal support. He'll most likely have the most saves. He SHOULD have comparible gaa and sv% to bish and dubbie but capable of having the best of the 3. peter debour was a defensive coach but he's gone now so this might hurt his stats? since they'll try to play a more offensive tempo. He has zero competition as starting goalie.

Taking this into consideration i think i lean towards dubnyk. I'm also taking into consideration that because of bishops contract theres a strong possibility he gets traded to a less favourable team. Also since your league is a 10 teamer I think you'll be able to redraft schneider the easiest since nobody likes new jersey players.

[P-Giddy]

As a huge Wild fan, I trust Duby. Will he repeat his numbers from last year? No, but a sub-2.40 GAA and .920+ SV% is absolutely in reach along with 35-40 wins. He'd be my choice.

Schneider is my second pick, followed closely by Bishop (I don't trust him to be elite, nor do I think his tenure in TB will last longer than 2 more years).

[YzermansLegacy]

Tough one to be sure. Nice post.

In a one-year, I think the debate comes down to either Bishop or Dubnyk. Both should provide you with appropriate #1G numbers. They both carry some risk (Bish with Vas and Dubs with regression) but I would be confident riding either one this year.

For me, the real issue is the fact that this is a keep 1F/1D/1G league. With that set-up, you're basically trying to get the Crosby/Karlsson/Price trifecta, since there will always be a TON of fantastic players to re-draft (even in a 10-team). Even in Dobber's guide, he's got 12-13 goalies listed as tier 1 guys. So a "legit" starter should always be available for you to find in the draft. What you want, is the #1G.

In my mind, of these 3, that guy is Schneider. No, obviously not this year, but as NJ grows into a competent team, I can see him having a year like Price did this year. In fact, Price had a few crap years awhile back too and Rask at one point was THE goalie to have... point being, things change. So give me the guy with the talent to be #1 and I'll do what I can to wait out his situation.

Obviously this strategy likely handcuffs you into perhaps drafting another G earlier than you'd ideally like to - but like the guy who will sit on McDavid as 1F until he is the best player in the league, it's a strategy worth considering in your set-up.

I do think Schneider is that good. And while NJ is most definitely NOT good haha, I do like their young D corps very much. And while you'll lose W's each week, you'll also feel pretty confident that you'll compete in SV, SV% and SO week in week out.

It's a risk for sure, but so is any direction you go on this one, so with your league setup, I'll always lean towards trying to get the #1 (or future #1) at a position over a guy who will be 5-15.

Good luck on this one.

[chuckcouples]

Another vote for Dubnyk. Schneider plays for a terrible team and I don't see the Devils improving in the next couple of years. I have never liked Bishop. I think last year is a much more realistic expectation for him going forward. The year before that he started off on fire but after January he was terrible. I expect Dubnyk to be a finalist for the Vezina Trophy again this season.

[Axeman33]

I'd rank them:

Bishop
Dubnyk
Schneider

I don't think you will go wrong with either Bishop or Dubnyk but I still consider Bishop a hair above Dubnyk.

[Pengwin7]

I like Dubnyk.
I think the WILD are a strong team... 3 lines deep & still emerging, as the STL Blues have been for the last couple years.
I think we'll see them play really well around Dubnyk and they are a very defensive minded team.

I think they are a serious sleeper for President's trophy (most points in NHL).

[skotchek]

What a great discussion. I could'nt have imagined such good feedback. It looks like the concensus is Dubnyk, Laidlaw (whose opinion I greatly respect) is sticking with Bishop, and we have have a vote or two for Schneider. In the end, this is a good problem to have.

[prkal8r]

I agree with most between Bishop and Dubnyck. I think that I'd probably go with Bishop, even though based on my team I'd love Dubnyck to separate himself and a clear top tier guy.