Projections: Varlamov, Luongo, Smith

[mr.mellow]

How do you view these goalies based on how their teams are looking heading into the 2015-16 season?

I have to imagine Varlamov bounces back on what was a nightmare of a first-half, but has Colorado improved at all? I'm not so sure. I love Florida going forward, so I'm not too worried about Luongo but will he maintain or improve his stats? Mike Smith... is there any hope for him in Arizona? Are they a bottom 3 guaranteed again this year?

Thanks everyone.

[Bazz]

I think the kitty kats make the playoffs with bobby lou leading the way.
Expect that 2.40 GAA .920+ for Varly again
I wouldn't buy an ARZ goalie, I think they are this years Buffalo.

[Moses]

Ben Bishop of the Tampa Bay Lightning, Tuukka Rask of the Boston Bruins and Semyon Varlamov of the Colorado Avalanche are the three finalists for the 2013-14 Vezina Trophy, which is awarded "to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at his position," the National Hockey League announced today.

Varlamov is your guy of those three.

[mr.mellow]

Just to clarify, I own all three goalies. Just trying to get a grasp on their projections so I know how much of an upgrade I need to make (and how much of a price to pay).

Thanks!

[Moses]

Just to clarify, I own all three goalies. Just trying to get a grasp on their projections so I know how much of an upgrade I need to make (and how much of a price to pay).

Thanks!

How many teams in the league?

[mr.mellow]

12 teams. (signature updated, thanks)

[Bass56]

I think Smith is the only enigma from that list as the 2 others are proven solid tenders with their individual up and downs.

Lou maintains, Varly bounces back and Smith should have a better season IMO.

[Axeman33]

I think Luongo is the only solid option from those three.

I have little faith in both Varlamov or Smith in regards to a capable starting NHL goalie. If you can upgrade either of those guys, I'd recommend it.

[franklin]

I think Luongo is the only solid option from those three.

I have little faith in both Varlamov or Smith in regards to a capable starting NHL goalie. If you can upgrade either of those guys, I'd recommend it.

I can understand for Smith but Varlamov had good numbers the last 2 years (over .920 and around 2.50 with a bad Def). Those numbers are very similar to Luongo. Why Axeman? Injuries scare you?

[Pengwin7]

I think COL will be much better defensively this year (even without ROR).
They signed Beauchemin (a top 4D) and will have a healthy Erik Johnson back this year.

Last season their top 6 was most often:
Hejda(L)-E.Johnson(R)
Guenin(R)-Barrie(R)
Holden(L)-B.Stuart(L)

This season, I think it will look more like:
Zadorov(L)-E.Johnson(R)
Beauchemin(L)-Barrie(R)
B.Stuart(L)-Redmond(R)
D7/D8: Guenin/Holden

Zadorov* & Beauchemin are a significant upgrade on Hejda/Guenin. [*Zadorov already being forgotten, fantasy-wise, as a key piece in the ROR trade to BUF.]
Guenin will push down to 3rd D-pair, I think, and allow both B.Stuart and Guenin to play natural sides.
Holden (-12) got absolutely burned last year and Hejda really started stinking (-11).
So now their two worst +/- defensemen are essentially out of their top 6.
A good article on some options for the COL D-pairings.

Where I'm going with this is Varlamov.
He's a .920 sv% goalie, which is good enough to win games.
His 2.56gaa is a reflection more of the Avs giving up SO many shots that his .921sv% from last year wasn't enough.
[Colorado was a bottom five NHL team for shots against per game, last year.]
And... of course, the Avs shots weren't going in last year.

Florida impressed last year with 91pts in the NHL standings, but they were a net -17 goal differential.
We lose track of Colorado who had 90pts in the NHL standings... because they finished last in the Western Division... but they were only a net -8 goal differential.
NHL Standings.

I know Florida is young... and we always expect younger to equal better... but FLA overperformed last year.
They were more like a 80pt NHL team that got some good breaks and won some tight games.
Think... well... think Colorado from two years ago. They are not that good.

For me:
Varlamov
Luongo
...
...
...
Mike Smith (unless it's a heavily weighted "saves" league - I have absotutely ZERO interest in Mike Smith)

[Axeman33]

I can understand for Smith but Varlamov had good numbers the last 2 years (over .920 and around 2.50 with a bad Def). Those numbers are very similar to Luongo. Why Axeman? Injuries scare you?

I just don't see much for consistency in his game since his trade to Colorado.

He has one good year, then a bad one, then another good year, then another questionable one. I am just not a fan of him and yes, the injuries are also a bit of a concern. I'd rather let someone else take the gamble on him.

That being said, if he keeps going down his career path, this year should be a good one for him.

[Bass56]

I agree with Pengwin and franklin; Varlamov had very good numbers on a very poor defensive team. He was positive in the W, had a great SV% and helped the Avs almost sneak into a very competitve Western Conference playoff spot.

Colorado as a whole grew and added key elements to its roster which makes me believe that they can only get better, with Varlamov continuing his solid play.

Now let's just hope his groin is on board with this!

[mr.mellow]

Wow gents, this is great. Thanks for this.

Seeing that revamped Colorado defence definitely makes me feel better about Colorado going forward. Completely forgot about Zadarov. I had very little hope for Smith and nothing has changed really. And unfortunately, he's impossible to move right now.

Thanks again for all the feedback.

[skinnypete88]

Not only did they reach 90 points and upgrade their team but lets also not forget that all the good players on the team are projected for a bounce back season. All of which points towards helping out Varlamov

[Axeman33]

I keep reading in this thread (and others for that matter) that all the good players on Colorado are "projected for a bounce back."

Where is everyone getting this information from? How are they "projected" for a bounce back. Can someone please explain this theory to me and where they are getting this information from.

I can "project" all kinds of things too, but that doesn't mean it will happen.