What happens if...

[forsbergfan]

Enjoying being a part of the Dobber mock draft. At least now that it's finally moving along!
I was just thinking about this - the consensus is that after the big 2, the next three will be some combination of Strome, Marner and Hanifin. But I think there is a very likely possibility that no one seems to be talking about...
What if the Coyotes forget about going after a center specifically, and decide to target the best player available, which they might deem to be Hanifin (based on their history of drafting dmen, I can only imagine they think he's the BPA). And then the Leafs go with Ivan Provorov instead of one of the forwards. They have a lot of dmen, but aside from Rielly, they have no possible elite dmen in their system. They're in for a long rebuild, so they're gonna take the BPA for sure, and not worry about any specific position for sure. No one knows who they think is the best player, but lots of teams have Provorov this high - they could be one of them.
Both of these teams could be hoping to win the Auston Matthew sweepstakes next year, as they're both the front runners right now anyways.
That means that the Canes are up, and both Strome and Marner are available!!! The more I think about it, the more I think that there's a really good chance that this could happen. What would happen next? I think the Canes would go with Marner, which would leave Strome falling all the way down to 6, and would possible be the steal of the draft for the Devils - Ray Shero would be the happiest man alive. Unless Provorov is there for him to take, he's going after a center (probably Zacha or Barzal, but I don't think Zacha plays center in the NHL, so probably Barzal).

[Axeman33]

I can totally see the draft happening that way as well. Hanifin to the Coyotes wouldn't be a complete shock as he appears to be the consensus 3rd best player in the draft but the Coyotes need more help up front than they do on the point.

As far as the Leafs taking Provorov, that wouldn't surprise me either. The Leafs have holes everywhere in their organization. Much like when Burke took Reilly 5th overall and said he was #1 on their draft board that year, Shanahan could have the same affection for Provorov. He seems to be the guy on the climb and he could go anywhere from 4th - 8th overall (although I don't think NJ takes him if he's still there at 6 when the Devils pick).

[forsbergfan]

we spend way too much time when we're having fun with our mock drafts and discussions about the draft talking about team need. virtually every team takes the best player available. the only team i know is drafting based on position is the panthers, and they're taking a winger. they were thinking of trading their first round pick last year to move down and draft a winger, so i think it's clear they take one this year. plus, meier and connor should both be there and are probably the BPAs at that point, so they'll both be perfect fits in florida.
otherwise, the teams are going with the BPA. i can't imagine the coyotes don't have hanifin as their number 3, and i got a real sneaky feeling the leafs want provorov. they're basically starting from scratch, and he's the kind of player you start from scratch with, more so than strome or marner. and once the position factor is out of the way, then i think marner goes before strome, since he's got that patrick kane- dynamic factor to him, which strome doesn't have.
there are some teams that alternate between dman and forward in different years, to balance out their system. the sharks seem to be doing that, which is why werenski doesn't make it past them, which is only if he makes it past columbus!

[Axeman33]

I can pretty much say with the utmost certainty that Columbus will be taking Provorov or Werenski as long as they are available. If both are there at 8 (which I highly doubt) then I'd like to say they take Provorov but who knows. The Jackets want a high end D at 8 and should be able to get one.

[YzermansLegacy]

Agree that in real life, teams select the BPA 99% of time, even if their depth charts are showing some glaring omission at a particular position. So yeah, I do think there's a chance that ARZ picks Hanifin, but I also think a big 1C is critical in the West so Strome would have some appeal to them too.

I struggle to see the Leafs going Provorov over Strome if he's available, although concede that it's possible they have Provorov higher on their list.

I think BPA plays a bigger role after the top tier of guys, since you're banking on the top 5 being sure-fire NHLers in the near future anyways. You're not waiting on that 3-4 year window with other prospects, which is why GMs go BPA, since they know their roster might look really different by then.

I'd also argue that while I agree it's important to "build from the back end", it's just as critical to get a #1C and depth down the middle. So if ARZ (or TOR) view Hanifin and Strome as equal, I think both play premium positions so that wouldn't necessarily be a factor.

Nice thread FF.

[2014olympicgold]

That’s a lot of what ifs lol.

With the Leafs having the 24^th pick, there’s a lot of solid D there, so I’m not sure they draft a d at their spot if Hanifin isn’t available. Any of the following could be available for them at 24:
Chabot, Juulsen, Zboril, Roy, Carlo, Kylington or Aho. They even have a shot Samsonov at goalie which could help.

Toronto has 4^th, 24^th, 65^th, 95^th, 107^th, 125^th, 155^th, and a 185^th. In that 65^th range there’s a lot of forwards/wingers going on, Then in that 90-100 ranger there’s a lot of those big d that take a while to develop. I don’t think Toronto reaches on Provorov just because they own that 24^th, and there’s a bunch of available D later on. Personal thinking tho

Wouldn’t NJD be moving in the right direction if they got Strome or Marner, but Zacha or Provorov is a solid consolation prize.

[Pengwin7]

re: D-men.
I think there may be a changing of thought in NHL drafting.
The bigger NHL D have taken so long to mature... that many teams (and even us fantasy guys) have soured a bit on drafting a big stay-at-home defenseman.

But Provorov, he's not lanky... I don't think he'll need a ton of time to transition to NHL speed/size.
And top 4D these days in the NHL seem to really be thinning out by overall quality.

And the smaller D-men (6' & 6'-1", I think, would be considered "small" in the NHL of the past 20 years) are doing a lot better in the faster NHL.

It absolutely wouldn't surprise me to see Provorov be snapped up early.
Could he possibly rise as high as #3 on draft day?
Button loves the guy and has him at #5.
The more I read about him... the more than I see guys like Subban & Shattenkirk & Justin Faulk emerging as 24min+ D...
And the more we see the NHL getting "smaller"...

All that said... a team also doesn't want to draft a "Hickey"... when they could've drafted a Voracek or a Couture.
(speaking of the 2007 entry draft)

[forsbergfan]

re: D-men.
I think there may be a changing of thought in NHL drafting.
The bigger NHL D have taken so long to mature... that many teams (and even us fantasy guys) have soured a bit on drafting a big stay-at-home defenseman.

But Provorov, he's not lanky... I don't think he'll need a ton of time to transition to NHL speed/size.
And top 4D these days in the NHL seem to really be thinning out by overall quality.

And the smaller D-men (6' & 6'-1", I think, would be considered "small" in the NHL of the past 20 years) are doing a lot better in the faster NHL.

It absolutely wouldn't surprise me to see Provorov be snapped up early.
Could he possibly rise as high as #3 on draft day?
Button loves the guy and has him at #5.
The more I read about him... the more than I see guys like Subban & Shattenkirk & Justin Faulk emerging as 24min+ D...
And the more we see the NHL getting "smaller"...

All that said... a team also doesn't want to draft a "Hickey"... when they could've drafted a Voracek or a Couture.
(speaking of the 2007 entry draft)

you could find plenty of examples when a team shouldn't have taken a barkov and instead should have drafted a jones. (just the first example that popped into my head, not to say barkov isn't gonna be really good).
i definitely agree with u that provorov could even rise to 3rd. i can't see the leafs passing on hanifin at 4 if he's there.

[Zorro]

Arizona needs to put butts in the seats.. They are going to draft the centerman.. D.Strome, Domi, and Duclair is a great start towards the future upfront.. They need more flash and less 'D'ash..

[Axeman33]

Arizona needs to put butts in the seats.. They are going to draft the centerman.. D.Strome, Domi, and Duclair is a great start towards the future upfront.. They need more flash and less 'D'ash..

Drafting a center doesnt put butts in the seats; winning does. You win by drafting the best player available at that point and deal with your roster situation via other routes. Don't get me wrong, they need help down the middle. With Vermette gone and Hanzal coming off back surgery, their top two centers are basically Oiler castoffs (Gagner and Arcobello). Yikes!

It depends on how they have their draft board laid out. I won't be one bit surprised if they draft Noah Hanifin next friday. Actually, I will probably be more surprised if they don't draft Hanifin.

[Zorro]

Drafting a center doesnt put butts in the seats; winning does. You win by drafting the best player available at that point and deal with your roster situation via other routes. Don't get me wrong, they need help down the middle. With Vermette gone and Hanzal coming off back surgery, their top two centers are basically Oiler castoffs (Gagner and Arcobello). Yikes!

It depends on how they have their draft board laid out. I won't be one bit surprised if they draft Noah Hanifin next friday. Actually, I will probably be more surprised if they don't draft Hanifin.

I didn't say drafting a centerman puts butts in the seats Axe.. I think drafting the big name does.. And after McDavid and Eichel, I feel D.Strome is that guy.. They definitely do need a centerman more then a defenseman.. I would be shocked if Arizona takes Hanifin..

[CascadeFilly]

I agree with Zorro. There's a huge hole at center for the Coyotes, and they're being gifted a great one in (likely) Strome. A good number one center is a tough position to fill, and I'd be surprised if they didn't jump all over this opportunity.

[mounD]

The more that I think about it, the more I become convinced that I was wrong thinking the Yotes would take Dylan Strome. Strome has his detractors, and you can't possibly say that there isn't some "statistically significant" risk associated with both Strome and Marner. People question Strome's overall game and play without the puck, while the size critics have come to roost over Marner. Investing highly in a guy who didn't even weigh 160 at the combine could make some nervous.

So, we're left with Noah Hanifin. He's rated by most scouting services as the overall #3 ranked player in this draft, and his level of risk is WAAAAAAY below either Strome or Marner. I don't care what you say about Hanifin's upside, he's a sure thing. And guaranteed to be a high-quality NHL defenseman. Having a guy like that to go with OEL, and developing guys like Murphy / Stone / Gormley isn't a bad idea at this point. It's probably the safest play for the franchise, and quite honestly Hanifin does have a lot of upside. He could turn into a guy that scores 45+ annually while playing an efficient, shut-down type game on the defensive end.

Weighing the BPA factor and the level of risk associated with the players after Eichel + McDavid, I think the Yotes select Hanifin #3. That leaves hometown kid Strome for the Leafs, and the Canes will swoop in and gladly take Marner. After that I think the Devs pick up Barzal, and the Flyers are actually the team that snags Provorov to anchor their blueline. After that I see the big Finn going to Columbus (natural drafting fit), the Sharks probably going Werenski, and the Avs closing out the top10 with good 'ol Lawson Crouse.

It's certainly possible that Provorov goes higher, but I don't see any Dmen outside Hanifin going inside the top5.

[Axeman33]

I didn't say drafting a centerman puts butts in the seats Axe.. I think drafting the big name does.. And after McDavid and Eichel, I feel D.Strome is that guy.. They definitely do need a centerman more then a defenseman.. I would be shocked if Arizona takes Hanifin..

I agree they need a center for immediate help, but I still think Hanifin sits on most scouts cards as the 3rd BPA and this is why I think they take him.

Also, I don't think they are worried as much about drafting a center as you may think though. They already have Domi, Samuelsson and they are quite pleased with the progression of Laurent Dauphin, plus they still have Ryan MacInnis (43rd overall last year) progressing nicely in Kitchener.

Most of their quality D prospects will be graduating to the NHL next year. Their best minors options are Gormley and Dahlbeck and both should be NHL regulars next year.

Believe it or not, they need D prospects more than they seem to need a center, if we are looking long term.

I must say, even with hockey over for the season, thankfully we still have the draft to talk about.

[mounD]

I love talking about the draft and speculating about all this stuff. I've been back and forth with who I think will go at #3 all offseason, mostly between Strome (the early favorite) and Marner (the challenger). But the more I think about it, the more Hanifin seems to make the most sense. I'd be shocked if they didn't select Hanifin at this point.

And people, let's get the spelling right here. I've already seen a million people throwing weird letters in where they don't belong.

H - A - N - I - F - I - N {Han like "Han Solo" ... I ... Fin like "Shark's Fin"}

Not difficult.