McDavid trade proposal

[LeTrefle]

Why not counter?

Because Tank + Hedman + prospect + pick (a good pick I agree) is the lowest price tag I've seen for McDavid.
Why counter and risk that the pick owner backoff?
Accept and enjoy!

[mxmizuno88]

Because Tank + Hedman + prospect + pick (a good pick I agree) is the lowest price tag I've seen for McDavid.
Why counter and risk that the pick owner backoff?
Accept and enjoy!

Really? You see that as low? What kind of upside do you see in McDavid?

I agree with fungchen's breakdown...

"McDavid (90-120) / Dream season (135)

vs.

Tarasenko (70-85) / Dream season (95)
Hedman (45-60) / Dream season (70)
Marner/Strome (65-80) / Dream season (90)"

Care to give more reasoning behind your choice LeTrefle?

[LeTrefle]

Really? You see that as low? What kind of upside do you see in McDavid?

I agree with fungchen's breakdown...

"McDavid (90-120) / Dream season (135)

vs.

Tarasenko (70-85) / Dream season (95)
Hedman (45-60) / Dream season (70)
Marner/Strome (65-80) / Dream season (90)"

Care to give more reasoning behind your choice LeTrefle?

It would take more than Tarasenko + Hedman + 2 prospects to land Crosby, at least in my league.
You admit that McDavid could/will outperform Crosby.
This is a good trade for you if you think McDavid >/= Crosby.
When I asked the 1st pick owner of my league what it would take to land his pick, he asked for Stamkos + Tavares + Price!!
It's not a dynasty league like yours, but the way I see it, the price you would pay for McDavid is under the market (for now at least).

[mxmizuno88]

Haha. I would laugh at that guy as that's delusional. Did he earn that 1st overall by tanking or by trading assets to obtain it some time ago?

Crosby would not be worth anything like that in my league given his salary, injury history, "what have you done for me lately", and PITs current team dynamics. Large salaries make players unmoveable in my league (ie. Weber, Toews, Kane, etc). Their performance has to be pretty extreme to the get the value your stating. Different leagues so it's like apples and oranges.

Thanks for the input

[YzermansLegacy]

From the getting McDavid side - in a salary cap league - I love this deal. Yep you're giving up a young, premier winger and D along with a top prospect and a high pick. That seems about right to land McD imo based on the info given. You know your fellow GMs and league setup better than us - so you have the best sense of what the GM holding the 1st overall needs/wants and how he values McD. I can tell you that in a salary-cap dynasty, if I ever was to have McD, I'd push for a TON more but would likely see "fair" value in that deal if the prospect (M.Murray) was more of a sure bet AND I had the necessary cap space to absorb Tank and Heds' upcoming deals. But this isn't a "veto-worthy" offer in my eyes for your league setup - which I believe the OP stated was expected.

The real question for me anyways is does doing that deal hurt your depth to the point that you can't take advantage of McD's ELC in the next 3 years to win? If it does, then there's not a lot of benefit (pool-wise, you'll love cheering for him as an Oil fan no doubt) since his 2nd deal will be likely be huge anyways. If you can still compete after doing the deal, then I say add in any other necessary 1st rounders or prospects to make it happen.

[hoser52]

Really? You see that as low? What kind of upside do you see in McDavid?

I agree with fungchen's breakdown...

"McDavid (90-120) / Dream season (135)

vs.

Tarasenko (70-85) / Dream season (95)
Hedman (45-60) / Dream season (70)
Marner/Strome (65-80) / Dream season (90)"

Care to give more reasoning behind your choice LeTrefle?

In a different league, someone poked around in an effort to get McDavid, owner wanted Ovechkin + 3 first round picks, just as a starter! Your offer sounds way less than that. McDavid owners generally are asking for the moon for him. You may have found the one owner who isnt completely, ridiculously over valuing him.

Take the deal before it goes bye-bye!

[fungchen3]

When I asked the 1st pick owner of my league what it would take to land his pick, he asked for Stamkos + Tavares + Price!!

That's simply ludicrous. That package would get you Mario Lemieux in his prime. If McDavid breaks 120-125 points consider it a career year. Meanwhile, Tavares will be flirting with 100 as well, Stamkos is an elite stud and Price is the best tender in the business. Anyone asking for that type of return for McDavid simply doesn't want to trade him - which is fine.

[valec]

In my salary cap league, guy with McDavid wants Crosby straight up.

[horrorfan]

The key for me - which I don't think has been touched on yet - is that this is a H2H league. Also it's important to look at the lineup depth (how often would your bench actually play in a given week) and the categories used. Talking about upside and season long totals isn't always the best way to look at deals in such a setup. You want to win each week - that's it. So it's understanding player value and impact on a weekly basis.

Losing Hedman hurts but in a 20 team H2H league with hits and blocked shots, if most of my D covers those categories then you should be in good shape. Given the spread of talent around your league, a more offensive Dman on a moderately deep roster will only contribute so much on a weekly basis. However, I feel it's important that most of your D covers the peripherals well, as they are more predictable on a weekly basis. Of course, I'm aware that Hedman does add a bit of peripheral value as well.

Also, looking at your team, at a glance it appears that you have good balance across categories, with especially good offense. If you feel you can afford the offensive hit from Hedman then yes I think this is a very good deal to consider.

Furthermore you mentioned salaries, which I have limited experience on, but the logic presented above tells me this is also a good deal.

Back to my main point above - we need to be careful using words like upside and providing season-long point predictions when evaluating a deal in the OP's format. Break it down into parts and see how it affects the team.

Finally, to the OP, the fact that you're an Oiler fan might be the deciding factor. Although it's good to evaluate deals with your head, being able to cheer for the guy on your team is also important.

If you are still debating, perhaps counter with a lower draft pick, or list his team to see if there are other options?

[Zorro]

If I loved the Oilers and truly believed in McDavid, then I would do this.. It does seem steep to me still, but you need to pay for studs..

[mxmizuno88]

Also it's important to look at the lineup depth (how often would your bench actually play in a given week) and the categories used. Talking about upside and season long totals isn't always the best way to look at deals in such a setup. You want to win each week - that's it. So it's understanding player value and impact on a weekly basis.

It's daily lineup changes so being able to utilize a bench player is completely dependent on the NHL schedule and the conflicts arising from that. I guess when you break it down like how you stated, a 55pts D man spread out over 20+ weeks of H2H vs say a 30pts D man, you lose a little over a point/week average. I suppose that is quite negligible. Thanks for that point of consideration.

What do you guys think of something like this?

Tarasenko + Subban + Murray + 2015 2nd (24th overall)

More because of the salaries that will be in play with Subban getting paid $11M next year. I still feel it's crazy steep but like Zorro said

you need to pay for studs..

Also since I know a few of my fellow GMs in the league lurk around here, just to hide the post a bit, what kind of valuation do you see for Eichel? Upside? Timeline (as BUF isn't as far along as EDM in rebuilding - and yes, that's not a typo even though EDM has shown nothing but ineptitude up to this point)? I'm thinking the upgrade to McDavid from Eichel might not be as great as the communities' perceived value.

[mxmizuno88]

In my salary cap league, guy with McDavid wants Crosby straight up.

That might not be that crazy as we count the yearly salaries and not the cap over the term of the contract. McDavid on ELC vs Crosby at $12M/year then $10.9M. Mind you McDavid likely won't hit those high numbers till year 3 likely.

In a different league, someone poked around in an effort to get McDavid, owner wanted Ovechkin + 3 first round picks, just as a starter!

That's actually not terrible. Ovy would be huge value just due to his hits but then at $10M/year, it dampens his value. Those 3 first round picks (obviously depending on how high they are) are likely overvalued. I'd take Tarasenko + Hedman any day even if those first rounders were top 3 picks. Proven over potential. And I love my picks

Like FHG said

For clarity, cap leagues are won on pts/$ ratios.

. Problem is balancing it and still being able to compete with losing those points from the outgoing players.

[Laendarian]

The cap league statement is what makes me think this is a worthwhile deal. Without that I'd say you may be overpaying but getting McDavid on his ELC is probably the most valuable guy in your entire league, Crosby and such included.

[mxmizuno88]

Although most of you felt that the price for McDavid was low regarding this offer (I still felt it steep), I reached out to the owner of the 2nd overall and got this deal done which I feel was better value:

Tarasenko + 2015 24th overall + 2016 3rd (likely a 45-50 range pick) + Gudas <-> Eichel + Gostibehere

Thanks again for everyone's input.

[Onetimer]

I did trade McJesus for Tavares and the #4 2015 pick. My pool is points only and adding Tavares will probably give me the horses to win the pool next year. Addind either Strome or Marner will be a huge bonus for me. The other owner offered me Tavares straight up for McJesus earlier in the year and i turned him down, so by waiting i get another great pick with it. Asked other guys on the forum and they all said make the trade...I would make the trade....