The Dobber Forum MLB Wins Pool Official League Thread

[Zorro]

I think Houston is a great pick here and once again I get shafted. So I guess the Braves

Sorry Dobber, Houston was the next team on The Whales list..

[horrorfan]

Hmm..which one of the bottom feeders will I get?

[bondon]

Guess I'll go with the minnesota twins.

I have no idea wtf I'm doing lol.

[austeane]

I'll go Arizona Diamonbacks. Yuck. Was also hoping the Astros would somehow fall all the way here.

[horrorfan]

I'll go Arizona Diamonbacks. Yuck. Was also hoping the Astros would somehow fall all the way here.

You couldn't have taken the Phillies, could you?

Oh well, I guess I'm stuck with them.

Yay.

[austeane]

I thought about it.

The Phillies could have been stupid enough to actually win a few too many games, and keep their pitchers, but all they have to do is follow the 76ers lead...

[metaldude26]

Predicted Standings based on Vegas over/unders:

Axeman (Washington, Kansas City, Milwaukee) - 93.5 + 80.5 +78.5 = 252.5
Zorro (LA Dodgers, NY Yankees, Cincinnati) - 92.5 + 81.5 + 77.5 = 251.5
Metaldude (LA Angels, Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay) - 88.5 + 81.5 + 78.5 = 248.5
Nowayout (St. Louis, NY Mets, Texas) - 88.5 + 81.5 + 76.5 = 246.5
TheWhale (Seattle, San Francisco, Houston) - 86.5 + 83.5 + 75.5 = 245.5
TheNugeCooge (Boston, San Diego, Colorado) - 86.5 + 84.5 + 71.5 = 242.5
Dobber (Pittsburgh, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta) - 84.5 + 82.5 + 73.5 = 240.5
Bondon (Detroit, Miami, Minnesota) - 84.5 + 82.5 + 72.5 = 239.5
austeane (Oakland, Toronto, Arizona) - 81.5 + 82.5 + 71.5 = 235.5
horrorfan (Baltimore, Cleveland, Philadelphia) - 82.5 + 84.5 + 67.5 = 234.5

[NoWayOut]

Predicted Standings based on Vegas over/unders:

Axeman (Washington, Kansas City, Milwaukee) - 93.5 + 80.5 +78.5 = 252.5
Zorro (LA Dodgers, NY Yankees, Cincinnati) - 92.5 + 81.5 + 77.5 = 251.5
Metaldude (LA Angels, Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay) - 88.5 + 81.5 + 78.5 = 248.5
Nowayout (St. Louis, NY Mets, Texas) - 88.5 + 81.5 + 76.5 = 246.5
TheWhale (Seattle, San Francisco, Houston) - 86.5 + 83.5 + 75.5 = 245.5
TheNugeCooge (Boston, San Diego, Colorado) - 86.5 + 84.5 + 71.5 = 242.5
Dobber (Pittsburgh, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta) - 84.5 + 82.5 + 73.5 = 240.5
Bondon (Detroit, Miami, Minnesota) - 84.5 + 82.5 + 72.5 = 239.5
austeane (Oakland, Toronto, Arizona) - 81.5 + 82.5 + 71.5 = 235.5
horrorfan (Baltimore, Cleveland, Philadelphia) - 82.5 + 84.5 + 67.5 = 234.5

Very tightly packed there, 18 wins separating 1st and 10th. And so much parity in MLB right now so this should wind up getting crazy.

[horrorfan]

Predicted Standings based on Vegas over/unders:

Axeman (Washington, Kansas City, Milwaukee) - 93.5 + 80.5 +78.5 = 252.5
Zorro (LA Dodgers, NY Yankees, Cincinnati) - 92.5 + 81.5 + 77.5 = 251.5
Metaldude (LA Angels, Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay) - 88.5 + 81.5 + 78.5 = 248.5
Nowayout (St. Louis, NY Mets, Texas) - 88.5 + 81.5 + 76.5 = 246.5
TheWhale (Seattle, San Francisco, Houston) - 86.5 + 83.5 + 75.5 = 245.5
TheNugeCooge (Boston, San Diego, Colorado) - 86.5 + 84.5 + 71.5 = 242.5
Dobber (Pittsburgh, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta) - 84.5 + 82.5 + 73.5 = 240.5
Bondon (Detroit, Miami, Minnesota) - 84.5 + 82.5 + 72.5 = 239.5
austeane (Oakland, Toronto, Arizona) - 81.5 + 82.5 + 71.5 = 235.5
horrorfan (Baltimore, Cleveland, Philadelphia) - 82.5 + 84.5 + 67.5 = 234.5

My crystal ball tells me both Baltimore and Cleveland will win at least 90 each.

[Axeman33]

Kansas City was a bit of a gamble for me. Great D but questionable pitching.

[NoWayOut]

Pulled together two sets of projections, one from Clay Davenport and the other from a website called Team Rankings. You'll notice they diverge quite a bit, or at least I think so.

Projected standings based on Clay Davenport's projections:

Axeman (Nats, Royals, Brewers) - 96 + 81 + 84 = 261
Zorro (Dodgers, Yankees, Reds) - 91 + 84 + 79 = 254
Metaldude (Angels, White Sox, Rays) - 83 + 82 + 80 = 245
TheWhale (Mariners, Giants, Astros) - 85 + 80 + 79 = 244
NoWayOut (Cards, Mets, Rangers) - 88 - 80 - 75 = 243
Horrorfan (Orioles, Indians, Phillies) - 85 + 85 + 72 = 242
Austeane (A’s, Blue Jays, D-Backs) - 86 + 81 + 72 = 239
TheNugeCooge (Red Sox, Padres, Rockies) - 85 + 79 + 73 = 237
Dobber (Pirates, Cubs, Braves) - 81 + 86 + 68 = 235
Bondon (Tigers, Marlins, Twins) - 81 + 76 + 73 = 230

Not a lot of difference there. TheWhale and I swap spots, Horrorfan and Austeane both move up three or four spots.

Projected standings using Team Ranking's projections:

Axeman (Nats, Royals, Brewers) - 96 + 90 + 82 = 268
Zorro (Dodgers, Yankees, Reds) - 94 + 84 + 76 = 254
Horrorfan (Orioles, Indians, Phillies) - 96 + 85 + 73 = 254
Metaldude (Angels, White Sox, Rays) - 98 + 73 + 77 = 248
TheWhale (Mariners, Giants, Astros) - 87 + 89 + 70 = 246
Dobber (Pirates, Cubs, Braves) - 88 + 73 + 79 = 240
Bondon (Tigers, Marlins, Twins) - 90 + 77 + 70 = 237
Austeane (A’s, Blue Jays, D-Backs) - 88 + 83 + 64 = 235
NoWayOut (Cards, Mets, Rangers) - 90 + 79 + 67 = 236
TheNugeCooge (Red Sox, Padres, Rockies) - 71 + 77 + 66 = 214

That one is....well....out there.

-NugeCooge falls off the face of the earth. I plummet 5 spots. Horrorfan jumps from 10th to a 2nd place tie.

-Where I think this bunch is way off the mark is the number of 90+ win teams. I don't see 7 like they do, more like what Davenport and Vegas are saying, 2, maybe 3 teams break 90. I don't even see the Nats or Dodgers flirting with the century mark in wins like they project the Angels to do. It could happen, but with the parity in the league being what it is I be shocked if either of those things occurs.

-90 wins for the Royals is ambitious. As Axeman said they play outstanding defense but they lack the bats to be a great offense unless Moose and Hosmer crank it up another notch or two. And their pitching is suspect now without Shields as their ace.

Bunch of other projections you could pick apart.

-Only 71 wins for the Red Sox? Too low.

-67 wins for Texas is about 8-10 too low. The pitching is still an issue but unless they suffer another bout of catastrophic injury woes their offense should be much better this season versus last.

-73 wins for the Phillies seems optimistic, they seem like a prime candidate for a 100 loss team in my opinion, or very close to it(high-90's).

I could go on, but I included that ranking just for shits and grins since it's so far off from the other two. Makes it a little more interesting to see which end of the spectrum the season winds up on.

[TheNugeCooge]

Projected standings based on Fangraph's projections:

Axeman (Nats, Royals, Brewers) - 94 + 78 + 79 = 251
Zorro (Dodgers, Yankees, Reds) - 90 + 82 + 76 = 248
TheWhale (Mariners, Giants, Astros) - 88 + 81 + 78 = 247
Metaldude (Angels, White Sox, Rays) - 86 + 78 + 82 = 246
TheNugeCooge (Red Sox, Padres, Rockies) - 86 + 83 + 75 = 244
NoWayOut (Cards, Mets, Rangers) - 88 - 81 - 73 = 242
Dobber (Pirates, Cubs, Braves) - 85 + 84 + 73 = 242
Bondon (Tigers, Marlins, Twins) - 84 + 81 + 75 = 240
Austeane (A’s, Blue Jays, D-Backs) - 83 + 81 + 75 = 239
Horrorfan (Orioles, Indians, Phillies) - 79 + 84 + 69 = 232

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts...tion=Standings

Pretty reputable site projecting a lot of parity throughout the league.

[TheNugeCooge]

I'm expecting 90+ wins from Boston this year. The lineup is pretty stacked and the pitching is underrated.

[Zorro]

I might regret picking Cincinnati instead of Tampa Bay, but then again, I could be very happy..

I already had one AL east team, and I love cheering for Joey Votto!!

At first glance I feel as though metaldude has the best collection of teams..

[Axeman33]

I'm expecting 90+ wins from Boston this year. The lineup is pretty stacked and the pitching is underrated.

I don't know if I would call their pitching underrated. I think it's rated just about right; mediocre. They are full of guys who are 3-4 starters on most rotations and are hoping their offense can carry them, which we know normally doesn't happen. Their bullpen is going to have to carry that team if they are to compete for the AL East division title.