Traded the NHL's Leading Scorer, Mistake?

[2014olympicgold]

The data seems to suggest you may be correct. My recollection of his drop-offs are probably more vivid than were the case.

In any event, I'm still not buying that he's a sustainable PPG+ point guy until he shows me more.

Maybe he slumps for 3 games, and then gets 6pts in 3games kinda thing.

How about the proof where this is the only year he's been a point per game player?

Ev, his lockout yr is 46pts in 48games. And without the terrible slump last yr he was close to ppg I think. He had like 12pts in the first 26games (50pts in final 56 games). I think he’s a 0.9ppg-ppg (70pts) player as long as he’s top line with Giroux.

[glorybe23]

How about the proof where this is the only year he's been a point per game player?

Duchene hasn't been a point per game player either, whats your point?

[Big Ev]

Duchene hasn't been a point per game player either, whats your point?

What's your point? Would you value Duchene as an 85-90 point player?

[Rylant]

He should be valued at 85-90 points. For proof, read my Cage Match on the main page.

I don't see how anybody could value him at a 85-90 point player. He has never scored anywhere near 85 points in a season; the closest he has come, is 62. Yes, he is having a great year, but he has been in the NHL for 6 years now, and this year is the first year in which he has scored on this level. He is good, yes, but an 85 point player? I will wait a bit before I am willing to call him that.

Rylant

[glorybe23]

What's your point? Would you value Duchene as an 85-90 point player?

definitely not.
Ev, I misinterpreted your post, my bad.

I would have done this deal as well for the goalie upgrade.

time to refill my coffee mug.

[Big Ev]

definitely not.
Ev, I misinterpreted your post, my bad.

I would have done this deal as well for the goalie upgrade.

time to refill my coffee mug.

Oh, no worries dude!

[RizzeeDizzee]

How about the proof where this is the only year he's been a point per game player?

Cough cough.......46 points in 48 games in 2012-13.....cough cough

- - - Updated - - -

I don't see how anybody could value him at a 85-90 point player. He has never scored anywhere near 85 points in a season; the closest he has come, is 62. Yes, he is having a great year, but he has been in the NHL for 6 years now, and this year is the first year in which he has scored on this level. He is good, yes, but an 85 point player? I will wait a bit before I am willing to call him that.

Rylant

Read my Cage Match and then tell me where my logic is wrong

[RizzeeDizzee]

I’ve owned him to since the lockout yr and never noticed a major drop off. I just looked at his career pre and post because it was easy. So you got me thinking and I dug up the year-to-year stats.

2013-14:
Pre All-star
59GP, 15G, 25A, 40pts, 159SOG, 9.4shooting%, 0.68ppg
Post All-star
23GP, 8G, 14A, 22pts, 76SOG, 10.5Shooting%, 0.96ppg

2012-13 (lockout). I did first 2 months vs last 2 months
1^st half
22GP, 8G, 16A, 24pts, 58SOG, 13.8Shooting%, 1.09ppg
26GP, 14G, 8A, 22pts, 71SOG, 19.7shooting%, 0.85ppg

2011-12 (1^st year with philly)
Pre All-star
48GP, 8G, 20A, 28pts, 112SOG, 7.1Shooting%, 0.58ppg
30GP, 10G, 11A, 21pts, 78SOG, 12.8Shooting%, 0.7ppg.

His points seem to dip per game, but his shooting percentage raises every second half compared to the first. The biggest drop was from 1.09ppg to 0.85ppg in 2013, but if he got 0.85ppg in the first half that’s 19pts compared to 24pts. Not massive.

The difference is this season he committed to nutrition and training, which is showing dividends now and should help him avoid a second half swoon.

[Big Ev]

Cough cough.......46 points in 48 games in 2012-13.....cough cough

Is that a point per game? Is that an 85-90 point pace? Why are you coughing?

my statement wasn't wrong. This is the only year he has been at a PPG

[Axeman33]

I like this trade for you. Once Duchene gets his poop together and gets back to what we expect from him, this deal turns out even better. Well done.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Is that a point per game? Is that an 85-90 point pace? Why are you coughing?

my statement wasn't wrong. This is the only year he has been at a PPG

Wow - quite a stickler. I guess by your logic, anyone who hits a point per game after his first year is a fluke? Even when - as is the case here - all the relevant data (ice time, shots per game, luck metrics) suggest his 85+ point pace is entirely sustainable? I get that you have your own opinion, but please give us something to back it up - I already did that in the form of a 2500 word piece that took me 8 hours to research and write and that's on the front page of the site right now.

[2014olympicgold]

Wow - quite a stickler. I guess by your logic, anyone who hits a point per game after his first year is a fluke? Even when - as is the case here - all the relevant data (ice time, shots per game, luck metrics) suggest his 85+ point pace is entirely sustainable? I get that you have your own opinion, but please give us something to back it up - I already did that in the form of a 2500 word piece that took me 8 hours to research and write and that's on the front page of the site right now.

The stats you use are season long tho, I’d like to see 10games at a time this yr. That could separate a hot streak pretty quickly. Voracek did have 15points in the first 10 games. Then 14pts in games 11-20, then 8pts in games 21-30, 11pts in games 31-40 (4pts in 1 game), then 4pts in games 41-43.The shot breakdown and all that jazz would be interesting to see.
Games 1-10: 1.5ppg
Games 11-20: 1.4ppg
Games 21-30: 0.8ppg
Games 31-40: 1.1ppg (0.78ppg in 9games)
Games 41-43: 1.3ppg

Was trending down in each 10game block.

[Big Ev]

Wow - quite a stickler. I guess by your logic, anyone who hits a point per game after his first year is a fluke? Even when - as is the case here - all the relevant data (ice time, shots per game, luck metrics) suggest his 85+ point pace is entirely sustainable? I get that you have your own opinion, but please give us something to back it up - I already did that in the form of a 2500 word piece that took me 8 hours to research and write and that's on the front page of the site right now.

Not a fluke at all. I'm saying let's wait for consistent production before valuing him that high. Do you value Foligno the same way?

History is filled with guys who have one or two great seasons.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Not a fluke at all. I'm saying let's wait for consistent production before valuing him that high. Do you value Foligno the same way?

History is filled with guys who have one or two great seasons.

I'm prepared to see another point of view, but only with more than a hunch behind it or an offhand comparison to another player. The reality is Voracek's productive ice time is way up (and still has room to improve), his Shots per game are way up (and again, with room to improve), and his luck metrics are all very reasonable, with the exception of slightly elevated 5x5 IPP and Offensive Zone Starting %. When factoring in everything, he should be able to continue at his current pace.

Show me some hard data that explains how you're right and I'm not about this. And I get that history shows that many breakouts prove to be aberrations, but having written Cage Match for 18+ months I can say that when that happens it's almost invariably easy to tell from the data, trends, and luck. And I'm not seeing that at all here.

[rataylor22]

Wow - quite a stickler. I guess by your logic, anyone who hits a point per game after his first year is a fluke? Even when - as is the case here - all the relevant data (ice time, shots per game, luck metrics) suggest his 85+ point pace is entirely sustainable? I get that you have your own opinion, but please give us something to back it up - I already did that in the form of a 2500 word piece that took me 8 hours to research and write and that's on the front page of the site right now.

It's not really being a stickler, it's being accurate. 46 points in 48 games is, by definition, not a point per game.

Also just saying, the argument you make for Voracek's seem....flimsy and hollow. First off, you're banking on approximately 90 seconds more ice time per game based on what Giroux plays. Did you research why Giroux get's an extra 90 seconds? Is that penalty kill time? Is it late game defensive zone draws? I wouldn't call either of those situations for productive ice time, nor do I think you can bank on Voracek magically playing in those situations next year. You also state that he COULD shoot more, even though he's already shooting at the highest rate of his career, he's known more as a pass first than shoot first player, and by not being in the top 20, he's in the top 35, so now who's being a stickler. # shots per game is a really good rate and I don't really think it's reasonable to expect that to increase much.

Now the fun part. Your argument is these two factors, which again, are pretty flimsy, will offset the fact that he has a ridiculously high IPP. 90%? NINETY PERCENT!? That is massize and definitely not sustainable. Which you acknowledge. What you don't acknowledge is how many points that is. Say he drops to his previous career high of 78.8%. A drop of 11.2%. Do you comprehend how many points that is. The Flyers have scored 119 goals this season. That is 13 (!!!) extra points Voracek has gotten from his stupidly high IPP. Which would put him below a PPG. You really think an extra 90 seconds of ice time and MAYBE shooting more can offset the loss of 13 points over 43 games?

I read the cage match article. It just makes a lot of assumptions and flimsy arguments as to why Voracek should be valued as an 85-90 point player. 75-82 would be a more reasonable projection.