Rocky Horror Roto Show 2014/15

[Shoeless]

Looks like there are only 5 teams going to make max games played in goal. That kinda shortens the field to compete for neepoints in Wins and Saves.

Comish's point about the number of moves doesn't really hold water as basically we are just turning over in 3 or 4 bench positions to hone our squads - the bulk of the players each of us drafted remains the same.

Anyway, if anyone wants to chat about getting a goalie from me in return for a center, come on down and just know that whatever you think players are worth, I know goalies are more valuable than centers - let's just focus on making each other's team better.

[Shoeless]

Not that Shoeless needs a pat on the back right now... but he's separated himself from the pack.
We really need his goalies to derail - or the champ will be a back-to-back.

There ya go - a chink in Andersen's armor as you wished.

[Pengwin7]

Anyway, if anyone wants to chat about getting a goalie from me in return for a center, come on down and just know that whatever you think players are worth, I know goalies are more valuable than centers - let's just focus on making each other's team better.

I wish you weren't in first.
We'd be a perfect fit for a trade right now.

[Shoeless]

I wish you weren't in first.
We'd be a perfect fit for a trade right now.

Yup and there in lies the problem - you don't want to be satisfied with second, as it should be. Oh well - I seem to be hanging in there at this point without a trade.

To be honest, I don't remember ever making a trade in the first 3 years of this league - it's tough sledding to come up with two way helpful trades. Guys seem reticent to give up scorers for goaltending.

[The Comish]

Pengwins Micro-Managed Standings (just completed)
Algorithm Not Provided [I need this to... try... to... micro-manage myself to 2nd!]

111 Duchenesaw Massacre
...
93 The Kane Chronicles
93 Nightmare on Helm St
87 Ichi the Hiller
87 BranStamkers Backula
83 Carey on Screaming!
82 Fransonstein
82 House of 1000 Corvos
79 Recchident Evil
78 Natural Born Quiller
70 Briere Witch Project
69 Ogie Ogre-thorpe

Not that Shoeless needs a pat on the back right now... but he's separated himself from the pack.
We really need his goalies to derail - or the champ will be a back-to-back.

Peng, how did you come up with these numbers? I know you may not want to divulge certain details, but without context, I could just throw some numbers together and give you guys some rankings and pass it off as something useful. I'm sure you factored in players going through hot/cold streaks, surprise players, injuries and trades to come up with your projected rankings, but I'm calling it bunk.

If I finish 10th, I'll change my name to Natural Born Quitter!

[Pengwin7]

Peng, how did you come up with these numbers? I know you may not want to divulge certain details, but without context, I could just throw some numbers together and give you guys some rankings and pass it off as something useful. I'm sure you factored in players going through hot/cold streaks, surprise players, injuries and trades to come up with your projected rankings, but I'm calling it bunk.

If I finish 10th, I'll change my name to Natural Born Quitter!

About once a month, I use Excel to do "per game" stuff.
I divide total stats by "per skater game"... except Blocks which I divide by "per D game".
Same for goalies with Wins/goalie GP & Saves/goalie GP.
Ratio stats (+/-, GAA, SV%) are not adjusted.

These are "per game" stats for all teams based on games played up to that date.
It's not a knock on your team and I didn't adjust anything.

As you can see, 2nd-10th place (just happens to be where your team is) is very, very, very close.
Dobber would argue in his own rankings that these are decimal point separation and not worth nitpicking.

Basically, Shoeless = Tier I.
Rest of us = Tier II.

[The Comish]

Ah, okay, I see now. Consider my panties "unbunched"! lol

I think there are so many factors that can affect how we do during the season, most notably injuries, that predicting that with formulas is folly. If I'm not mistaken, your "predicted standings" in fantasy football often turn out to be pretty close, so I'm hoping that you are way, way off with your predictions here!

[Shoeless]

Teemu and I use similar forecasting systems as well, Comish. Of course they can't predict results that may be altered by injuries or hot streaks, but still surprisingly accurate as the season starts to get some significant depth of games played. But I think the real value, assuming max games are met is that on a per game played basis you know where you stand in each cat (+/-. gaa and sv% excepted of course - they is what they is).

But I do have a question for you Mike, do you factor in the likelihood of teams not making max games played in goal? At this point, without some serious adjustment there are 5 teams not making goalie max games played and 2 on the bubble. That surely has implications for Saves and Wins.

[Pengwin7]

But I do have a question for you Mike, do you factor in the likelihood of teams not making max games played in goal? At this point, without some serious adjustment there are 5 teams not making goalie max games played and 2 on the bubble. That surely has implications for Saves and Wins.

No, I definitely don't factor in teams not making a GP max at any position.
The only fair assumption one can make (IMO) is that all GMs are smart and will realize they may need to make a trade (and WILL) to meet max GP.

Short answer: I assume all teams will make their max GP at each position (which as you/we know... isn't often true).

In some extreme cases, some teams (like mine) might identify that meeting a GP max at a certain position may NOT actually help a certain category or even "across the board" categories at a position.
This then becomes a struggle with how to attend to that position, strategically.
(You & temek can probably figure it out, but I'm at a serious cross-roads with my own team, at a given position... just based on a couple freak games that skewed my ability to chase a cat.)

[Shoeless]

Actually I don't factor that in, just kind of do some mental calculations mostly with saves. I was just curious if you were doing it. I am not a wizard with excel and haven't spent the time to learn the rank function so my calcs are a bit onerous in ranking all teams - I basically keep an eye on my own projection for ballpark purposes and the details in each cat as to where I need to focus. That and using FHG regularly to keep my finger on the pulse of the waiver wire and I do way too much crunching but it's a hobby I love.

[4T2]

Way to sell high on Pavelac there Rick.

[Shoeless]

Yeah and I forgot to take him out of my lineup. Oh well.

[dooley89]

Way to sell high on Pavelac there Rick.

Yeah really eh, desperate times for fransonstein in the G department!
Massive is an understatement in regards to the improvement this will be for me!

[4T2]

Yeah really eh, desperate times for fransonstein in the G department!
Massive is an understatement in regards to the improvement this will be for me!

He'll help ya in the saves department anyway I'll still be here when you want to improve your other categories too.

[dooley89]

He'll help ya in the saves department anyway I'll still be here when you want to improve your other categories too.

If I need some extra GP i'll just get those from you