Pavelski...

[pbure9]

How do you guys feel about Pavelski.
Last year he shot an ASTRONOMICAL 18.2%, where league-wide shooting percentage is closer to 10-12 range I believe.
That said, given the choice do you nab him in a keeper league ahead of younger guys like Eberle, Johansen, Landeskog.

Keeper league has pretty standard cats, excluding SOG.

Thanks

[metaldude26]

Definitely headed for regression, but depending on your specific cats I might still take him ahead of those guys. Also, a counter to huge amounts of regression for Pavelski is that he's a career 11.1% shooter, so an above average one. The league average was 8.89% last season overall and 10.43% for forwards. For future reference on league average shooting percentage check out this: http://www.quanthockey.com/TS/TS_ShotPercentage.php

[vitun-tyhmä]

I wish I had acquired him earlier when he was cheaper. He should be considered a 70-80 pt forward for years to come. Thorton won't be around much longer either, it will be Pavelskis team before long

[MGW]

I wholeheartedly agree. Pavelski is excellent offensively and good defensively. I think 70 is a conservative projection this year.

[petegreg21]

Going off of his past 4 seasons he's averaged 0.828 PPG, or 68 points per 82 game season. I'd value him in the 65-75 range.

As for this becoming "Pavelski's team", he'll be 32 by the time Thornton and Marleau are gone. By that time Couture and Hertl will be the go-to players.

[vitun-tyhmä]

Thornton will be gone before that

[petegreg21]

Thornton will be gone before that

The guys got a NMC, he's not going anywhere til he feels like it. If he wanted out he would have been gone this summer. He'll probably pull a Sundin, refuse to be traded because he wants to retire a Shark, then come out of retirement to try to win a cup with a real contender.

[vitun-tyhmä]

NMC are waived all the time, this will be his last season in SJ

[Rocky71]

I'd take Pavelski ahead of any of those players. I project him to be a 70 point player this season, and hit that mark consistently going forward.

[petegreg21]

NMC are waived all the time, this will be his last season in SJ

They are waived by players who want to be traded. As long as Thornton thinks they have a playoff team, he will not be going anywhere. Like I said, I think if he wanted to be traded, he would have waived already this summer and he would have been gone. Either that or Wilson isn't serious about rebuilding this franchise, rather retooling it. He's making 6.5 million dollars, living in sunny California and is a regular in the playoffs every single season. There's a reason he negotiated a NMC into his contract.

[horrorfan]

One thing I would like to caution with regards to shooting percentage is the number of shots taken as well. Last year he had 225 SOG. Similar pace to the shortened season, but the previous two seasons he had 269 and 282 SOG respectively. Now of course there is other contextual factors relevant (e.g. progression, outliers, age, ice time etc.) but if he were to shoot more this coming season, who's to say he can't get close to the goal numbers as last season? He could score 35 on 260 shots for ~13%.

Now on the flip side, he's far exceeded his career best point totals at age 30 and he had an incredible 31 PPP last season. To me, that second number screams negative regression simply because outside of the elite it's hard to replicate that production on a recurring basis. I don't have the facts to back up that statement, though, so I can be proven wrong.

That being said, with some modest negative regression but still solid goal totals, it wouldn't surprise me if he topped 70 again.

[Coyote]

I feel like he might have a small step back but not by much, rather than high 70s or ppg he's more likely to be in the low 70s somewhere

[pbure9]

Thanks for the help guys.
Stuck between him and a those guys listed, but definitely leaning towards Pavelski.

[27Blue]

Pavelski is one of the most overrated player currently on Dobber. No way you keep a thirty year old who just destroyed his career best season over the three guys you mentioned. Insane!

[metaldude26]

Thanks for the help guys.
Stuck between him and a those guys listed, but definitely leaning towards Pavelski.

I'd still like to see the specific scoring categories before ultimately voicing my opinion.