Niemi + Hotlby - Why??

[JAMZ]

I have both of these goalies going forward in my league and have been pretty puzzled as to why they both endured job loss controversies this past year to varying extents. Both are also in muddy waters (for Niemi now that Stalock has signed), and many are calling for Stalock to take over full time in SJ. There's no need to belabour what's happened to Holtby (or any recent Washington goalie gone through the revolving door), but it should be enough to say that he's been FAR from fully endorsed by his team.

Despite these controversies, I see both as pretty good goalies, so I looked up their numbers:

SV% / Rank
(Regular season, rank for goalies played 30+ games)

Niemi/Sharks
2014 .913 / 22nd
2013 .924 / 6th
2012 .915 / t-20th
2011 .920 / 11th

Holtby/Caps
2014 .915 / t-18th
2013 .920 / t-9th

I was a bit surprised to find that Niemi could finish as low as 20th/22nd with reasonable save percentages like .913 and .915 (his worst two years with the Sharks). His numbers indicate that he has a downside of a bottom half goalie, while also having the upside of a top 10 goalie. There is no evidence to believe he can be elite based on these figures, and he's 30 already, so I am not expecting any additional 'maturity' or performance growth based on experience.

As for Holtby, well, both years he gave strong performances. He finished in the middle of the pack this year despite the coaches adjusting his mechanics. Last year, when he was on, he was top 10. How did this guy lose so many starts this year (and his #1 mantle) after putting up reasonable pedestrian numbers despite an adjustment?

I would greatly appreciate any insight into how to manage these two players. I want to believe in what these numbers tell me, but I know there are other analyses that could help me out. Other Niemi and Holtby owners? Chime in!

[petegreg21]

There's no need to belabour what's happened to Holtby (or any recent Washington goalie gone through the revolving door), but it should be enough to say that he's been FAR from fully endorsed by his team.

Fresh news, so hopefully this gives you a good vote of confidence.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...braden-holtby/

Niemi I've never liked so I'll leave my bias out of this one All I can offer is that I'm holding Holtby in another league unless a very enticing offer came across my screen.

[ztking]

^ completely agree. If I wasn't set in net I'd try very hard to acquire Holtby. I think he'll have a fantastic season with a great deal of starts. As for Niemi, he obviously has the number one job but his first twenty games will be crucial. SJ has shown they are in a mild rebuild of sorts and I don't think they will hesitate to trade him if he doesn't perform. Stalock put up exceptional numbers this year.

[chuckcouples]

I expect a big season from Holtby. The addition of Mitch Korn to the Capitals staff should do wonders for his development. I also think Niemi will be a top 15 goaltender in the NHL again this season. Stalock's numbers from last season are fairly misleading as 10 of his 18 starts were against non-playoff teams.

[ztking]

10/18 (56%) isn't too far from the standard. 14/30 (47%) teams that don't make the playoffs. And considering his numbers were 12-5-2 with 2 SO and .932/1.87 vs Niemi's 39-17-7 with 4 SO and .913/2.39. I like Stalock's chances. SJ won't have much patience with sub par goaltending.

[chuckcouples]

The other reason I don't see Stalock being the starting goalie in San Jose is that he's never really been that good. His career AHL numbers are a 2.60 GAA and a .909 save percentage in 145 games. His college numbers are 2.48 and .910 in 101 games. None of those numbers lead me to believe that he will be good enough to be a starter in the NHL.

[JAMZ]

Thanks for the tips everyone. The SJ job is a cushy job if you can keep it - lots of offensive support for wins.

I guess for those of you who are down on Niemi, do you think it might be time to sell? Would this be selling too low though, after a down year and now with all of the rebuild rumours going? Or should I sell at this price anyways before the bottom drops out and he loses his job?

What are the reasonable chances that Niemi loses his job after 20 games? if it's 50% I am selling. If it's 20%, then I am not going to panic.

Rep being distributed BTW. Thanks!

[ztking]

In all honesty I don't see him losing the job very early but keep in mind it is the last year of his contract. And his 4mil hit is fairly easy to trade if they have confidence in Stalock or lost faith in Niemi. I think you are safe for one more season but I would think about trading him on a high note if he does very well early in the season. Just my two cents. Best of luck!