From what I know/read, I think you're pretty accurate with your assessment so I'll add this: when do you need to make a decision? If Vanek signs in Minnesota, then Nino's value drops due to less ice time and lower quality linemates.
Keeper league G A PPP SOG SHG +- PIM Hits Blocks
Who do you prefer in this format. FOW are not rewarded and I find RW the most scarce position to fill these days.I believe Bjugstad has 70 pt upside with Niņo topping out around 60.
Niņo has more competition for cracking the top 6. Bjugstad has only Barkov. Niņo will put up a bit more PIM and extra hits.......
Who do you prefer?
From what I know/read, I think you're pretty accurate with your assessment so I'll add this: when do you need to make a decision? If Vanek signs in Minnesota, then Nino's value drops due to less ice time and lower quality linemates.
I'd also consider this: If Nino makes the top 6 despite better talent around him, it's actually a big plus. Of course the likes of Parise, Vanek, Koivu etc. could push him out of the top 6, but if he gets two of these guys to play with, I like his supporting cast way better than Bjugstad's. And as you've mentioned yourself: Nino's peripherals are going to be better. Nino for me.
24 team H2H dynasty, fantasy points, no cap
Skaters: G 4.5 (5 for Ds), A 3, PPG 1.5 (2 for Ds), PPA 1 (1.5 for Ds), SHP 2, Ft 2, HIT 0.6, BLK 0.6, SOG 0.3 (0.4 for Ds), FW 0.1, Tk 0.5 // Gv -0.3
Goalies: W 3.5, SHO 5, SV 0.5, A 3 // GA -3, L -1.5
4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G, 4BN, 4IR
C: McDavid, MacKinnon, Hischier
LW: B.Tkachuk, Ovechkin, Paul(C), Jankowski(C)
LW/RW: Meier, Fiala, Giroux(C), Niederreiter
RW: Reinhart, Anderson, Armia
D: Josi, Matheson, Durzi, Moser, Cernak, Zadorov, Siegenthaler
G: Daccord, Merzlikins, Vanecek, Pickard
44 minors; most noteables: A.Schmid, E.Andrae, M.Kesselring, S.Malinski, B.Pachal, L.Stanley, L.Bichsel, E.Soderblom,...
Went with Niņo .......... RW's are hard to find and I think his work ethic will eventually get him into the top 6 with 2nd Unit PP time. I'm Thinking he'll average 15 min next year. He played better than Coyle and Yeo will eventually have to reward him.
Even saying that, I like Bjugstad's upside better and I could have just lost the best player in this deal.
bjugstad has a higher upside and an easier path to better minutes imo.
10 team Full Keeper Roto League
4C-4LW-4RW-6D-2G-5bench-unlimited farm.
C= eichel,horvat,malkin,kuznetsov
LW= forsberg,kreider,lee,b.tkchuch,hertle,granlund
RW= reinhart,radulov,hoffman,laine,hayes
D= doughty,ghostebehere,karlsson,jones,klefbom,dahlin ,skjei
G= price,murray,grubauer,georgiev,ullmark,samsonov
under250gp=nichushkin,tuch,mathesson,marino,pujuja rvi,hosang,terry,andersson,j.hughes,patrik,crouse, zadina,podkolzin,k.miller,nedeljkovic,kravtsov,hay ton
--G,A,P,PPP,SHP,GWG,PIMS,+/-,SOG,hits,FOW,blks-Wins,GAA,SV%,saves,SO
Bjoogie, bjoogie all night long.
(and yes, you will need some private time after watching this video.)
I think Nino can get 65. I also think "only" Barkov is understating it. Bjugstad doesn't stand a chance at top center, unless Barkov becomes a Band-Aid Boy. I think given the categories and the fact that RW is tough to get, you go with Nino
The Best Fantasy Hockey Site
15-Team Keeper, points only, best 12 fwd, 4 dman, 2 G count. Playoffs count.
F - T. Thompson, Thomas, Nylander, Tarasenko, Arvidsson, Guentzel, Fiala, Quinn, Mittelstadt, Hagel, Zacha, Roslovic, Berggren, Brink, Ostlund
G - Kahkonen, Vejmelka, L. Thompson, Levi, Comrie
D - Hronek, Morrissey, Lundkvist, Girard, Brannstrom, Rathbone, Hanifin, Severson, Durzi
12 team H2H Most Cats Wins; Keep 6/winner keeps 7; G A PPP +/- SHP SOG HIT BLK PIM // W SV GAA SV% SHO
3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 6D, 2G, 5 bench
C - McDavid, Crosby, Tavares
LW - DeBrincat
RW - Meier, Miller
D -
G - Jarry
re: Florida centers.
I don't think we should devalue somebody for being C2 (Bjugstad).
Barkov rising takes nothing away from Bjugstad... or vice-versa.
They'll both soak 18-19min/game in the long-game.
I'm baffled though at anybody picking Nightrider.
1. Look at Minnesota. This is a defensive first team where the forwards that has landed here is trending to a decreased point total. (Parise, Pominville, Moulson).
2. I highly expect MIN to really go after Vanek... and I think they'll get him. [MIN has $23m in cap space for 5F, 1D... that's an effin ton... they are going to throw a HUGE number at somebody on the market.]
Top six: Parise, M.Koivu, Pominville, Coyle, Vanek, Granlund.
DONE.
Nino's not in the top six.
Players not in the top six don't even sniff 60pts.
Blades of Steel
9 Team Full Keeper - Pts Only (G,A,W,SO)
Crosby, Wheeler, Bergeron, Forsberg, Connor, Kopitar, E.Lindholm, Pastrnak, DeBrincat, Fiala
Jones, Klingberg, Hamilton, Theodore, Letang
Saros, Shesterkin
Garland, Vrana, Bjorkstrand, Verhaege, Backstrom, Karlsson, Perunovich, Spurgeon, Pulock, Hellebuyck
Love the contraversy! I see where Pengwin is coming from. Nothing wrong with being a 2C and top PP. hopefully Niņo's will and determination finds him in the top 6 within the next 2 years. If there's only a 15 point difference in their career averages, I'll feel comfortable that I made the right decision.
I owned Nino last year and was constantly frustrated at his limited ice time and top-six ice time. Hopefully Vanek doesn't sign or he cracks it anyway.
12 Team H2H. Full Keeper
G/A/Points/PIM/PPP/FOW/SOG/HIT/BLK/W/GAA/SV/SV%/SO
Malkin, Seguin, Perry, Monahan, TJohnson, Wheeler, Lucic, Nichushkin, Drouin, Datsyuk, Hossa, Holland, Bouma, Nieto, Colborne, Prust, Jooris
Subban, Savard, Dillon, Murphy, Prout, Petrovic
Lundqvist, Rinne
Vanek is the difference maker here, and he isn't even really part of your equation. Because I think Minny makes him an offer he can't refuse, I would put my money on Bjugstad. Mind you, it looks like you already pulled the trigger. You win if Vanek goes elsewhere.
Bottleneckers (12/16 in 2022)
16 team, points only. G: 2-W, 4-SO.
Top 9F, 4D & 1G . Keep 15, Max 23
F: J. Robertson, J. Hughes, Tavares, Lafreniere, Cozens, Newhook, Teravainen, Domi, R. Strome, Laine, Rossi, Raymond, Holtz, Perfetti
D: Bouchard, McAvoy, Morrissey, Heiskanen
G: Vasilevskiy
I can see your point pengwin, but to me Coyle (or dare I say it - even Granlund) isn't any closer to having locked down a top six spot than Niederreiter. They played more in the top six last season, but that doesn't mean too much. It's about getting the right mix in your lines and Nino could bring the physicality that some of the other guys you mention lack. Yet he brings enough skill to not slow skill only players down.
24 team H2H dynasty, fantasy points, no cap
Skaters: G 4.5 (5 for Ds), A 3, PPG 1.5 (2 for Ds), PPA 1 (1.5 for Ds), SHP 2, Ft 2, HIT 0.6, BLK 0.6, SOG 0.3 (0.4 for Ds), FW 0.1, Tk 0.5 // Gv -0.3
Goalies: W 3.5, SHO 5, SV 0.5, A 3 // GA -3, L -1.5
4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G, 4BN, 4IR
C: McDavid, MacKinnon, Hischier
LW: B.Tkachuk, Ovechkin, Paul(C), Jankowski(C)
LW/RW: Meier, Fiala, Giroux(C), Niederreiter
RW: Reinhart, Anderson, Armia
D: Josi, Matheson, Durzi, Moser, Cernak, Zadorov, Siegenthaler
G: Daccord, Merzlikins, Vanecek, Pickard
44 minors; most noteables: A.Schmid, E.Andrae, M.Kesselring, S.Malinski, B.Pachal, L.Stanley, L.Bichsel, E.Soderblom,...