Well... the big guy pegged Ovechkin for 90pts this year too.
I told him he was wacky... but he wasn't hearing it.
Great read Pengwin.
You provide a solid case for your position, backed up by statistics. And I mostly agree with your findings - the only thing is, I consider Ovechkin a weird bird. I think his biggest problem is between his ears. Seems to me that Ovie was at his best when he was playing happy and full of gusto. He is the type of passionate player that thrives on raw emotion and positive emotion nets positive results. Once the "pressure" was on him, Boudreau and the rest of the Caps to win, he started to regress. The system changed, the style of team changed and Ovechkin was visibly having less fun. The same thing happened under Hunter and early on with Oates. I think this season, Ovechkin was so inspired and excited for the Olympics in Sochi that he played happy and was tearing up the league. Maybe I'm wrong, but he wasn't AS great post Olympics? Moving forward, Ovie is a complete wild card IMO. If the situation worsens in Washington, I could definitely see Ovie limited to 70-75 points per. But if a new GM/Coach/System or the likes of Kuznetsov, Orlov and Burakovsky add some excitement to the team, and Ovie is rejuvenated, I could see him hit the 85-95 numbers again. Yes, I think Ovechkin is THAT unpredictable.
8-GM / WK-H2H
Forwards: G=2, A=1, PP/SH= +1, GWG= +2, Shootout G=1, HT= +1
D-Men/Captain: G=3/A=2
Goalies: W=3, OTL=1, SO= +2, SV= .10
Start = 13F, 6D, 2G / Keep 44 (3G)
Captain: Matthews
(F): MacKinnon, Pasta, Marner, Rantanen, Malkin, Barkov, M.Tkachuk, W.Nylander, Pettersson, Gaudreau, Laine, Keller, Miller, B.Tkachuk, Stutzle, DeBrincat, L.Raymond, K.Johnson, Cozens, Quinn, Guenther, Kulich, Cooley
(D): Makar, Dahlin, Q.Hughes, Ekblad, Rielly, Werenski, Letang, Jones, Chychrun, Seider, Edvinsson, Jiricek, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Ceulemans, Hutson
(G): Shesterkin, Demko, Vejmelka
Well... the big guy pegged Ovechkin for 90pts this year too.
I told him he was wacky... but he wasn't hearing it.
Me, personally...
Crosby, Giroux, Seguin, Benn and possibly Getzlaf.
Perry, like Ovie, fluctuates too much for my liking. Hall plays too reckless for me and the Oilers are a mess. Kessel's future is still unknown, although he's emerged into a great fantasy option and Pavelski is hitting 30 and just had his amazing blow-up year.
But, yes, I would definitely take those 4 others over Ovechkin in a points-only format (unless Goals were bonused).
8-GM / WK-H2H
Forwards: G=2, A=1, PP/SH= +1, GWG= +2, Shootout G=1, HT= +1
D-Men/Captain: G=3/A=2
Goalies: W=3, OTL=1, SO= +2, SV= .10
Start = 13F, 6D, 2G / Keep 44 (3G)
Captain: Matthews
(F): MacKinnon, Pasta, Marner, Rantanen, Malkin, Barkov, M.Tkachuk, W.Nylander, Pettersson, Gaudreau, Laine, Keller, Miller, B.Tkachuk, Stutzle, DeBrincat, L.Raymond, K.Johnson, Cozens, Quinn, Guenther, Kulich, Cooley
(D): Makar, Dahlin, Q.Hughes, Ekblad, Rielly, Werenski, Letang, Jones, Chychrun, Seider, Edvinsson, Jiricek, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Ceulemans, Hutson
(G): Shesterkin, Demko, Vejmelka
I've been an Ovechkin hater on these boards for some time now, and he hasn't let me down in a long long time.
10 Team, Points Only, Cash League
25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt
Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink
G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger
"Cleavage is like the sun. You can look, but dont stare.. Unless you're wearing sunglasses."
How does the inclusion of Kuznetsov at the start of next year look to:
a) Help Washington as a whole?
b) Perhaps serve to motivatee his countryman Ovie?
c) projections for Ovie and Kuznetsov next year and 3 years down?
Is Kuznetsov Ovie's alternate winger? Will they eventually land on the same line?
1. I don't think "standard leagues" include points. Most do not.
2. It's not "hate". It's an analysis of a player that is tabbed frequently as "ELITE".
In most fantasy hockey pools, if you ask the casual fantasy hockey GM: "Who is elite?"... I'll bet you that 4/5 casual fantasy hockey GMs list Ovechkin!!!
3. Take that term ELITE. Now pause.
There's no point making the list you made.
Here is the ELITE list: Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin... arguably Stamkos.
4. Now... stop. You own Ovechkin.
If you can get Benn & Sharp... or Hall & Pavelski... for Ovechkin...
Do you make the trade?
Standard partial keeper? (So, let's say 12-team. Keep 8. 3/3/3/5/2G)
What's your answer?
Are you really keeping Ovechkin?
It's not about hate.
The thread is "biggest reason to sell".
Stock market standard motto:
Buy Low, Sell High.
Once the sell high period has closed... you aren't the top manager in the league.
Top fantasy hockey GMs are consistently flipping declining 80pt talent for rising 75pt talent.
That's the point of the thread.
Much as I too have been touting in this thread, that he is not in the ELITE points getting category anymore (even if you add SOGs and Hits OR are a Goal Heavy League), I do agree somewhat with this. If there is 1 player that is so moody and passion focused that those characteristics and suitable surroundings (system, linemates, motivation) can elevate him to another season of awesomeness (read 90 points, 100 is not happening), its probably Ovi. That is why he is so mercurial.
By the same token, another season of 80 points with bad +/-, the window to sell high will certainly be gone, which is why I think, it makes sense for me (in my pools) to let it to be someone else's issue, not mine.
Bottom line, great debate!
League 1: 2021 Dobber Entry (Patrick), Yahoo Roto, 10 Teams
4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G start; 5 Bench
Skaters: G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, Hits
Goalies: W, Saves, GAA
Forwards:
C: Malkin, ROR, Backstrom
LW: Forsberg, Parise
RW: Gallagher, Hornqvist, D Brown, Kessel
Dual Eligibility: Svechnikov, Jamie Benn, Radulov, Domi, Rakell, Pavelski
Defense: Hamilton, Letang, OEL, Suter, Spurgeon, Girard
Goalies: Vasilevskyi, Lehner, Mrazek, Reimer
I just don't see Ovi having as horrible a year at even strength next season. Like I mentioned in my OP, his linemates shot like 4% this season. That has to be a huge reason for the decline, he still scored 27 ES goals, but only had 13 assists. If you double that number, which isn't asking a lot, that puts him at 92 points this year.
Overall, I agree with your assesment. Ovechkin is on the downslide and his days of being a true ELITE are over. We won't see another Art Ross in his future, or even 100 points. But 90? Ya I think he can still do that once or twice more.
20 Team Dynasty (points per) - G (25, 50 for defense) A (25) PIM (3) PPP (15) SHP (25) OTG (15) GWG (25) HTr (50) SOW (75) HIT (1) BLK (2) W (50) SHO (100) OTL (10) GA (-15) SV (2) Use actual NHL salary
Start 12 F, 6 D, 1G weekly
F: Kucherov, Marchand, Barkov, Gaudreau, Laine, Aho, Dubois, Dadonov, Huberdeau, Trocheck, Bertuzzi, Beauvillier, Khaira, Grigorenko
D: Ekman-Larsson, Yandle, Edler, Pulock, Borowiecki, Weegar, Mike Reilly
G: Andersen, Hart
Farm: Boldy, Beckman, Wise, Mascherin, Kovalenko, Manukyan, Walker, Morozov, Shafigullin, Palmu, Tychonic, Zhuravlyov, Kesselring, Zamula, Lankinen, Sogaard, Ingram, Rybar
For me it's all about the hate.
10 Team, Points Only, Cash League
25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt
Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink
G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger
"Cleavage is like the sun. You can look, but dont stare.. Unless you're wearing sunglasses."
Dumb luck basically. A guy sets a career low rate in scoring he's either on his way down, had horrible luck, or both. I'd lean towards both but with a HEAVY dose of the latter. As mentioned earlier, his linemates shot 4%. How on earth does an elite shooter like him come out with just a 5.84% on-ice shooting percentage (at even strength)? He's down there with guys like Scott Gomez!
Some of that stuff is controllable. I think that to some degree players really can control the scoring rate of players on the ice with them but an outlier like that? Naaaw, something's up. Ovechkin's on-ice shooting percentage the previous two years was 10.36% and 8.62%, both much closer to league average than this season. You see that stat regress and he's getting a few more even strength points. Hell, it might even over-correct if Kuznetsov proves to be amazing or Carlson takes a big leap or pure dumb luck swings the complete opposite way. Or maybe they fire the GM, a guy who reportedly alienates free agents. That could be another source of help.
I see the trend and I agree with the trend. The days of Ovechkin going off for 100+ look like they are over barring the addition of a superstar into his life. But just because the trend is downward doesn't mean that it's going to be a perfect slope. There can be peaks and valleys just like there are for PP scoring.
This is definitely going to turn into a front-page article. I just hate to have to be an Ovechkin apologist. It's way more fun to make fun of him joining the exclusive 50-goals/minus-30 club.
Good post... and I sent you some rep.
If his overall shooting percentage is about average (12%) and you researched that his ES SH% is low (6%)... then I suppose his PP SH% may have been higher than normal too? (20+%??? This is just a guess.)
Another note here is that there are two minds of thought:
1. Points-Only Pool Ovechkin.
2. Multi-Cat Pool Ovechkin.
Good discussion though... and some very good comments by many users, for both cases towards Ovechkin.
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