Buy Low / Sell High Candidates for Next Year

[SergeP]

JCairns' thread inspired me to create my own. Who are your top buy low candidates for next year?

Personally, I'd have the following guys on my radar as buy-low opportunities:
Yakupov
E. Kane
Huberdeau
Letang
Howard
Holtby
H. Sedin
D. Sedin
Kadri
E. Staal


Some of the guys I think will inevitably getting traded for more than they're worth and/or getting drafted too high are the following:
Mackinon (I think he's the real deal but I don't think he's going to "explode" for 85-90 points next year as most people seem to)
Mason
Steen
Vanek
MSL (I think the trade to NYR will mark the start of a precipitous decline for the ageless wonder)
Bishop
Varlamov (I hope I'm wrong about this one)
Nyquist (see Mackinon)

[jcairns]

Nice list. I agree with essentially all your picks, but would remove Varlamov. Sure, this may have been a career year, but I also think he needs to be treated as a legit top-10 goalie now, especially given the emerging Avs.

[SergeP]

I hope you're right. I have a nagging feeling the Avs may have overachieved a bit this year but I hope they prove me wrong.

[HockeyProphet]

I hope you're right. I have a nagging feeling the Avs may have overachieved a bit this year but I hope they prove me wrong.

Good thing about a young team, don't need to add new pieces, just let them mature and develop. They have a good core moving forward.

[Dobber]

I don't have faith in the Sedins or Yakupov. Sure, they could do it. But my confidence isn't very high. I do see an improvement though (it certainly can't get worse), but not by as much as people believe

[Stencil]

I don't think Staal and Kadri are buy-low and I think Bishop is the real deal.

I think Mike Ribeiro is well under the radar right now and could bounce back more then any of the above names. In deeper leagues, I would also name Seth Jones as a buy low if you look long term. His price will double every year from now.

I would sell high on Okposo if given a player of his production this year.

[Shiva Blaster]

I wouldn't be targeting the Sedins to buy low, I'd be avoiding at all cost. You won't be able to get them cheap enough to make it worth it as their name value now exceeds their fantasy value by a fair margin.....they are on the downslope.

[Magicstew]

Buy low candidate - Kris Letang - lots of managers have not been happy with injuries/ health issues and may be open to movinghim.,
May be risky but I would kick some tires at the owners in your league to see there thoughts. High risk/reward situation but I am thinking it is worth the gamble.

Being Wpg fan - thinking E Kane is buy low right now - with Maurice signed to coach, think he will mature into the player/scorer he was projected as.

[Pengwin7]

I would say the Sedins are good bounce-back candidates.
They are aging, true... so let's not dare call them 80pt players.

But 70pts... that's what I'm expecting.
(I traded Alex Ovechkin & Chris Kreider for the Sedins in my dynasty cap league... so my money is where my mouth is.)

Some interesting notes:
1. The Sedins are usually good for an average of 25 PPP in a full year. They had just 18 PPP each this year. That's 7 points I think they'll get back.
2. Daniel Sedin shot a career low 7.1% this year. He's a 12% shooter. 5% of 224 SOG = 11 goals. That's 11 points back for each, as Henrik is pretty much in on EVERY Daniel goal.

That quickly brings Daniel's dismal 47pt year up to 65pts.
That quickly brings Henrik's dismal 50pt year up to 68pts.
Those are just "normalizing" statistics... not any speculation as to change in team philosophy or strategy.

Now, you've effin Torts, who blows.
The distractions with the GM.
Burrows, their most chemistry-clicking linemate, who was out for half the season.
Kesler - another distraction.

I call somebody a "buy low" if they can put 15pts on their current year total.
And I think the Sedins are easily going to hit high-60s... more likely 70.

They have a style-of-play that doesn't require a high gear.
It's smooth & moderately-paced, depending mostly on hockey-sense & positioning.

We shant be too quick to write-down elite playmakers OR elite tandems... my 2 cents.

[Shiva Blaster]

I would say the Sedins are good bounce-back candidates.
They are aging, true... so let's not dare call them 80pt players.

But 70pts... that's what I'm expecting.
(I traded Alex Ovechkin & Chris Kreider for the Sedins in my dynasty cap league... so my money is where my mouth is.)
.

If either of the Sedins ever puts up 70 points again, I'll eat my shorts. Truth is, they've already been 70 point players since 2011-12. Since then, they have aged, their team is no longer an offensive powerhouse, and scoring as a whole has gone down. In the glory years, the Sedins had their offensive stats buoyed by a ridiculous 30+ ppp per year. I know you see this as a reason why they will get back to 70, but I see it as the exact opposite: the Canucks no longer have a dominant team or power-play to "prop up" the Sedins stats, and they can no longer generate enough offence 5-on-5 to approach 70 points. The Nucks will only have a middling PP moving forward, not the top-5 powerhouse PP they once had. They are now a below-average NHL team, and that is going to be reflected in the Sedin point totals.

Another factor I'd like to mention is Daniel's shot and ability to score. I'm not sure what happened to Daniel in terms of injuries, but his shot has lost a LOT of the zip it had a few years ago. The fact that he's finding it much more difficult to score is not a coincidence, and I've heard more than a few knowledgeable Canuck fan or announcer mention the same. Both of the Sedin's point totals depend on Daniel being able to put the puck in the net........IMO his skills and shot have deteriorated to the point where Daniel is hard pressed to score more than 25 in a season. This alone severely limits the Sedin point totals........I think Daniel would have to get back to 30-35 goals for the Sedins to hit 70 points, and I don't see that happening at all.

From here on out, I see both Sedins as 60-65 (tops) point players. If you are expecting more at this point, I think you will be sorely disappointed.