Myers+Wilson for Cano+Werth+Soria

[lockedge]

I was just reecently offered Cano, Werth and Joakim Soria for Wil Myers and CJ Wilson.

It's a really odd offer, because the guy who proposed the trade literally has a full bench and DL of pitchers (no batters on his bench at all, he'll have to pick up a guy after this trade if I do it). It's been his schtick, and he's won the last two years (though that has involved some serious good luck at times). He tends to focus on dominating the 5 pitching categories and dominating a single batting category (SB) and then hoping for the best with the rest. Again, it's worked for him. (his bullpen/DL includes Strasburg, Greinke, Tanaka, Zimmerman, Ventura, Gray, Liriano, Beckett, Fister, Walker, Skaggs, Ross, Alvarez, Soria, Soriano, Nathan, Frieri and Johnson).

But I can't for the life of me understand why he's trying to get Wilson off of me unless he doesn't see the pitching market this year as deep and doesn't want to stream with his 7 moves per week.

The league we're in is an 8 team 5x5 (R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG - K/W/SV/ERA/WHIP) with a full set of infield positions, 5 OF, and two UTIL for the batting. For the pitching, it's 5 SP, 2RP, and 2 general P. There's a bench of 6 players, and 3 DL slots. Daily line changes, H2H.

My team:
(C) Wilin Rosario (1) Joey Votto (2) Jason Kipnis (3) Josh Donaldson (SS)Troy Tulowitzki
(OF) Giancarlo Stanton, Wil Myers, Shin Soo Choo, Mark Trumbo, Brandon Moss
(Util) Albert Pujols, Norichika Aoki (Bench Batters) Jed Gyorko, Khris Davis, Ben Revere
(SP) Adam Wainwright, Chris Sale, Julio Teheran, Alex Cobb, CJ Wilson (RP) Glen Perkins, Addison Reed (P) David Robertson, Chris Tillman
(Bench Pitchers) Danny Salazar, Tony Cingrani, Rick Porcello


Now, if I didn't have Kipnis, I would flat out take this offer without batting an eye. But I have Kipnis AND a benched Gyorko. Both who are worthy 2B options by any stretch, even if Gyorko is more of a wild card.
Werth is a downgrade from Myers even if the bearded dude puts up similar numbers as last year. Cano is a big(ish, depending on whose projections I look at) upgrade on Gyorko or Davis (I feel i need SOME speed, so losing Revere would be...a potential issue, honestly, with only Villar being on the FA for pickup who could put up some SB numbers), but I'd be moving a pitcher that could get me a boatload of wins, and so long as Wilson's HR/FB rate doesn't go back closer to ten, and so long as he can keep the walks down, I think he could be good this year except for in the WHIP category. I'd be trading wins and strikeouts and potentially ERA for saves and WHIP with Soria, so long as Soria is stable (yet to be seen).

I did some composite projections (though a power outage killed my unsaved notepad while I was at school today, so i'm ballparking them here), and I ended up getting a result of ~+18R -2HR +21RBI -3SB +0.063AVG if dropping Davis to make room for Soria and Werth. And +13R -4HR +18RBI +4SB +0.051AVG if I drop Gyorko. Those numbers are decent, and I think I produce enough HR to give up a shred of power for extra return on R and RBI (at the potential cost or gain of some speed). I don't think I feel comfortable dropping any of my current pitchers before seeing them perform, and there's a decent batting pool around because more teams are stacking their benches with pitching in this league, so I feel I can get away with dropping a Davis or Gyorko if need be. As for the pitching, I'd be losing 100-110K, ~10-12W, adding 20-35 SV and marginally better WHIP. I'd have 4RP running per week, likely winning me the SV category consistently(expect perhaps gainst the guy I'm trading with, who would have 4, or 3 if he drops one when his DL guys get healthy) so long as my guys keep their jobs, as most other teams have 2 or 3. I feel comfortable enough streaming pitchers in the future if I need to to make up for the W and K losses, as there's potential out there (Quintana, Arroyo, McAllister, Delgado, Paxton, Eovaldi, Stults, etc.) they're just not all that safe of options and I'd like to keep from being the bottom of the leage in ERA this year if I can manage it.

Anyway, sorry for the huge ramble. I'm just kind of confused at the offer. Cano is, like, keeper-level talent, and Wilson isn't, and Myers is great but not a top 15 guy yet. And if I get Cano, I can leverage him or Kipnis later on to another team if they get an injury, so there's trade bait potential. I'm just worried that Werth will regress a bunch and that I'll lose a fairly stable presence in my pitching staff.

Do I make the deal? I'm leaning toward yes, but I'm kind of worried I'll be letting him secure the pitchign categories he's clearly going for, whereas I doubt I'll be able to secure all the batting categories, leaving me at a disadvantage at the end of the year for playoff seeding and potential matchups.

Any help? Please? My brain is thoroughly destroyed right now and I'm trying to make sense of all this.

[MillerTime89]

I'd do this deal and sell off Gyorko for another OF or SP. Cano is a top-10 pick whereas Myers is not.. take the value in this trade and sell off other parts. The other owner is living dangerously.

[watchingthegame]

I agree. Yes, you are getting another 2B which is already a strong suit for you, but the value is so highly in your favour that you hit accept and worry about that later. Trade a Kipnis or even flip Cano.

He's going to get his pitching one way or another. He'll give Cano to someone. Let that be you. Accept.

[The Sarge]

I would also agree. CJ Wilson simply is not that good...? You can afford to lose Soria, and Myers--while primed for a breakout 2014--will probably wind up with comparable numbers to Werth. If nothing else, Cano's performance will outweigh that slight difference.

Not to mention, I'm a huge Giancarlo sympathizer. I really think this is his year. So you'll be ok in your outfield.

Additionally, you and I are in almost identical leagues, so I'll probably be coming back here for YOUR advice pretty soon.

Good luck!

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Just read this again....You GET Soria?! Jesus. Yeah. Do it.