Looking at Relievers

[Dobber]

Jeff Hopkins takes a look at some relievers here.



The run of fantasy predictions, projections and rankings ends as it should - with the closers. A highly debated position with regards to should you draft early or late, do or don’t follow along with a run on RP’s and how much to actually pay. In the end this is a position that is usually pretty deep and can provide service in many league formats. For the purposes of this little discussion we will focus on full time firemen – let’s get it!


Real Deal – A Bump in Production on the Way:

Trevor Rosenthal (RP, STL) was given the reigns to the closers role late in 2013 when the previous fill in closer started to run out of gas, and boy did he capitalize (and perform)! With a fastball hitting triple digits and already some high pressure post season success under his belt, Rosenthal should be good for 3-2, 38 saves, 2.28 ERA, 108 K:33 BB, 0.98 WHIP.

Ernesto Frieri (RP, LAA) had to do one thing – lower his HR rate – and he will jump considerably in the RP rankings. He is already a solid choice, but this year he could jump to a line near say 3-1, 39 saves, 2.88ERA, 99K:34BB, 1.03WHIP…if he can just keep theball in the park more.

David Robertson (RP, NYY) is likely the biggest gainer on the RP board after inheriting the NYY closer role and then watching the team get better with free agent signing. Following the greatest closer ever will be hard but not something that seems to be a concern for anyone. Expect a line of 5-3, 36 saves, 2.11 ERA, 78 K:26 BB, 1.09 WHIP.

Bobby Parnell (RP, NYM) had some bad luck last year when injury limited him to only 50.0IP. I think this year he stays healthy and it will show in his final tally which should be close to 3-4, 32 saves, 2.69 ERA, 78 K:39 BB, 1.15 WHIP.

Kenley Jansen (RP, LAD) should expect to see his overall stat line grow in 2014 with a full season as Dodger closer expected. End of year totals of 4-1, 37 saves, 2.00 ERA, 100 K:20 BB, 1.01 WHIP put him in the top shelf of RP options.

Sound Investments – Easy Return on Investment:

Sergio Romo (RP, SF) is about as sound as it gets here, just not the big strike out threat you would like to see when paying for him at draft time – plan for 4-4, 37 saves, 2.71 ERA, 69 K:51 BB, 1.18 WHIP.

Craig Kimbrel (RP, ATL) is the hardest player to draft in some circles as he costs so much, but he is so very good at his job. How can you turn down a line of 3-1, 48 saves, 1.19 ERA, 101 K:18 BB, 0.96 WHIP…even when he is over priced and drafted too early on draft day.

Aroldis Chapman (RP, CIN) and the Reds have likely settled on the closer job for the foreseeable future after the silly thoughts and plans last year. Odds are he settles between his numbers form 2012 and 2013 with 3-3, 38 saves, 1.99 ERA, 112 K:30 BB, 0.99 WHIP a good bet.

Greg Holland (RP, KC) is just what Kansas City needed last year in the bullpen and will be good for it in 2014 as well. Expect 2-2, 40 saves, 2.22 ERA, 92 K:22 BB, 1.00 WHIP in 2014 and draft him a round or two after too many pay too much for Kimbrel.

Joe Nathan (RP, DET) keeps getting older and still keeps closing games. Expect another 3-3, 42 saves, 2.66 ERA, 69 K:34 BB, 1.10 WHIP type season.


Tread Lightly - for a Multitude of Reasons:

Koji Uehera (RP, BOS) is the one closer I am somewhat scared of for some reason and not sure why. He should be good for 0-1, 39 saves, 2.24 ERA, 78 K:21 BB, 1.08 WHIP which is great, but I just have an odd desire to not trust this 38 year old closer…just seems bad things happen to Red Sox closers lately at some point.

Casey Janssen (RP, TOR) will again be an under valued closer come draft day – a good bet for 3-3, 33 saves, 2.67 ERA, 58 K:20 BB, 1.02 WHIP – if only he can nail down an entire season as closer and the Blue Jays live up to most of the talent on their roster.

Jason Grilli (RP, PIT) will be back as the Pirates closer and should be good for 2-2, 30 saves, 3.09 ERA, 78 K:25 BB, 1.20 WHIP, but at 37 and not finding a 60 IP-plus season over the past three, odds are he won’t last all year for some reason.

Addison Reed (RP, ARZ) found himself as part of a big deal this off season moving to the desert from the windy city. He didn’t really inspire endless confidence in fantasy owners in 2013 and those worries should be carried into 2014 for now as well as he isn’t 100% assured to be closer. Even with his solid strikeout rate, expecting more then 3-4, 32 saves, 3.51 ERA, 82 K:22 BB, 1.18 WHIP will be a stretch right now.

Rafael Soriano (RP, WAS) should remain solid in 2014, but the ominous signs of decline should not be completely ignored. Good bet for 3-4, 36 saves, 2.99 ERA, 71 K:33 BB, 1.23 WHIP, but be careful on where he gets drafted.

Fernando Rodney (RP, SEA) will likely somehow put up a good final stat line in 2014 but owners have to suffer through some at times serous mood swings with Rodney. Through all the ups and downs he should be good for 2-4, 32 saves, 3.11 ERA, 72 K:42 BB, 1.37 WHIP.

Here are my rankings as of right now for relief pitchers:

1 Craig Kimbrel (SP, ATL) 3-1, 48 saves, 1.19ERA,101K:18BB, 0.96WHIP
2 Greg Holland (RP, KC) 2-2, 40 saves, 2.22ERA, 92K:22BB, 1.00WHIP
3 Aroldis Chapman (RP, CIN) 3-3, 38 saves, 1.99ERA, 112K:30BB, 0.99WHIP
4 Kenley Jansen (RP, LAD) 4-1, 37 saves, 2.00ERA, 100K:20BB, 1.01WHIP
5 Joe Nathan (RP, DET) 3-3, 42 saves, 2.66ERA, 69K:34BB, 1.10WHIP
6 Trevor Rosenthal (RP, STL) 3-2, 38 saves, 2.28ERA, 108K:33BB, 0.98WHIP
7 David Robertson (RP, DET) 5-3, 36 saves, 2.11ERA, 78K:26BB, 1.09WHIP
8 Koji Uehera (RP, BOS) 0-1, 39 saves, 2.24ERA, 78K:21BB, 1.08WHIP
9 Glen Perkins (RP, MIN) 2-4, 37 saves, 2.44ERA, 72K:09BB, 1.09WHIP
10 Ernesto Frieri (RP, LAA) 3-1, 39 saves, 2.88ERA, 99K:34BB, 1.03WHIP
11 Grant Balfour (RP, TB) 4-1, 36 saves, 3.27ERA, 66K:33BB, 1.22WHIP
12 Sergio Romo (RP, SF) 4-4, 37 saves, 2.71ERA, 69K:51BB, 1.18WHIP.
13 Jim Johnson (RP, OAK) 2-2, 38 saves, 3.10ERA, 51K:19BB, 1.23WHIP
14 Casey Jannsen (RP, TOR) 3-3, 33 aves, 2.67ERA, 58K:20BB, 1.02WHIP
15 Jonathon Papelbon (RP, PHI) 5-4, 33 saves, 2.97ERA, 69K:17BB, 1.15WHIP

So what did I miss? Who got left off that should have been added?

[HOOTIE]

Of the 15 listed, i won't own Janssen. I keep hearing Santos will have the job soon, and maybe even Delabar.
Robertson scares me a bit. Was great in 8th inning, but has been terrible in 9th inning in career.
I like Rex Brothers, who will close at some time, Hawkins too old.
I like Steve Cishek a little.
I probably would boot Janssen out of the 15, and add Cishek or Brothers.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Nate Jones a top 15 guy either.

[Dobber]

Santos needs to stay healthy though, and people have been underestimating Janssen for years.

I think he's shown enough that even if Santos is healthy, Janssen will still close. Santos could be a great setup man too. But you're right - there is definitely a risk with Janssen

[Carter]

Rex Brothers will be somewhere on that list before to long.