Auction Draft: Keeper Help

[FlightDistance]

Hey folks,

Any input would be appreciated, budget of $300/team in a 10 man league.

Here's my players and their 2014 value. Need to keep 7.

Locks
1B Goldschmidt $8
OF Harper $12
1B Adams $4
SS E. Cabrera $6

Maybes
SP Ryu $5
SP Iwakuma $4
C Castro $4
3B Seager $7
3B Moustakas $7
OF Werth $8
SP Medlen $7 (waiting on the MRI results tomorrow)

Probably nots
SP Bumgarner $23
C Mauer $15
SP Lynn $10

Leaning towards some combo of Seager, Ryu, Iwakuma(might bump him due to injury, possibly out a couple months), Werth, Medlen(if healthy)

[HOOTIE]

With few keepers, i want sure things.
Adams could be a bust.
Mauer and Bumgarner at 15 and 23 isn't bad.

[FlightDistance]

Adams could be but at $4 is fantastic value. He's going for about $11 in most leagues.

I can get Bumgarner and Mauer at their same price or cheaper so no point in keeping them. Especially Mauer, not wasting $15 on a catcher and he's a low tier 1B if I play him there with his mediocre power numbers.

[HOOTIE]

Ok, good luck.
We kind of disagree on value versus talent.
Value is nice, but so is talent.
With only 7 keepers, i prefer talent, if the price is still good.
Looking at draftbuddy.com, i checked the values last year of a 10 team $300 budget.
Here are last years values on your guys. Next to that is Steamer projections (Fangraphs), with same settings.
My 7 would be Harper, Goldschmidt, Ryu, Seager, Bumgarner, Castro or Mauer. Cabrera and Adams are cheap, but they are barely going to produce over that.

Iwakima $28 $7 projection
Bumgarner $24 $26
Ryu $11 $14
Medlen $10 $7
Seager $12 $10
Mauer $17 $34
Cabrera $3 $9
Adams $-2 $8
Werth $27 $4
Castro $16 $14

[FlightDistance]

just picking your brain but why Mauer?

[HOOTIE]

He's listed at $15. He earned more then that last year, and is projected by Steamer (Fangraphs), to be higher then last years numbers.
So you get the $15 value, plus more.
To me, it's better then a Cabrera at $6, getting maybe $9 worth of value.
It's your team. If you don't feel comfortable, then don't keep him.
It's not like $15 is a terrible price, in a $300 league.
Cabrera and Adams might work out, but neither are projected to earn $10, so you're only going to get $7-$9 value, unless they really amaze.

[FlightDistance]

Thanks for the back and forth, repped you a couple posts back

The value and projected values has me confused. How could his value be $17 from only 113 games worth of stats from last year? Guess they prorated his season which seems generous.

and how can his projected value for 2014 be almost double when he's being projected for a season of 70/10/70 .300+?

$15's not terrible, but for a 70/10/70 .300+ type of line? Hmmm.

[HOOTIE]

It doesn't look like they pro rated it. As to how they got those numbers, i can't say for certain. They do apply a $ figure to each position built in. And they applied a higher $ figure to C this year then last.
His .324 average in 445 abs, gave him a big edge in C.
Mauer is projected .300 in 563 abs, 82 runs, 71 rbis, 14 hrs, 3 sb.