Value of Yakupov

[Ryanmccor]

As for kovalchuk, Yes, I get it, I was just pointing out he's maybe not the best example, as I would gladly take kovalchuk's 816 NHL points even if he is going to leave after 12 years. I'd be much more worried if yakupov turns out like radulov or zherdev or filatov, moving to the KHL before doing much of anything at all in north america.

[Instant Karma]

As for kovalchuk, Yes, I get it, I was just pointing out he's maybe not the best example, as I would gladly take kovalchuk's 816 NHL points even if he is going to leave after 12 years. I'd be much more worried if yakupov turns out like radulov or zherdev or filatov, moving to the KHL before doing much of anything at all in north america.

Sure, assuming that he's going to hang around for those twelve years. But why would you think that that's a safe assumption?

In fact, Kovy is an especially relevant example, mainly because the Devils basically backed-up the ol' armored truck to his house. I thought that the chances that he would bolt for the KHL were virtually nil after that.

And there was also no rancor with the Devils. He wasn't being healthy-scratched. He wasn't under-performing. And they weren't a shlt team, either. They had gone to the Eastern Finals with him, IIRC.

And yet he bolted depite that.

So. Remind me again why it is that Kovy isn't a relevant example?

[joeb323]

Yak won't eclipse Sedin's point production for quite some time so I'm not a fan of this deal. I think you're 2 or 3 years ahead of where this deal makes sense.

[jcairns]

Hmm, I guess time will tell. I appreciate the feedback as always. My thinking was that iginla would fill in three-quarters of the points I would be losing this year by giving up D sedin

If you are aware this is a downgrade right now, why would you do it? Too many people get in the mindset that potential matters more than anything in fantasy, and they forget how long development takes. If yakupov does stay in the nhl, it will be at least 3 years before he out points sedin. Meanwhile, you blow your chance to win this year by doing that trade, and hurt yourself for the next couple of years for: 1) a player that might not end up being a star 2) a fantasy keeper league that doesn't exist in three years.

[Ryanmccor]

Bah, well I officially regret this trade now... I think jcairns said it best, and I made the mistake of overvaluing yakupov's POTENTIAL to be an 80 point player while giving up somebody who ALREADY IS an 80 point player... At least I can stash Yak on my farm team til the end of the season and grab a free agent like johansen or brunner or something. And if Yakupov gets traded irl i'll try to flip him for someone to help me win this year, like maybe a Sedin

[Ryanmccor]

Sure, assuming that he's going to hang around for those twelve years. But why would you think that that's a safe assumption?

Because Kovy DID hang around for 12 years and score 800 points. If you think Yakupov is going to bolt to the KHL after his entry level deal expires, then he's no kovalchuk, he's a filatov or a radulov.

[Instant Karma]

Because Kovy DID hang around for 12 years and score 800 points. If you think Yakupov is going to bolt to the KHL after his entry level deal expires, then he's no kovalchuk, he's a filatov or a radulov.

(sigh) You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink.


You didn't answer the question. Just because Kovy played in the NHL for twelve seasons has absolutely zero bearing on whether Yakupov will or not. Zero.

You're missing the entire point. The Devils give Kovy a 15-year, $100 million contract, they go deep in the playoffs, and he also wasn't being healthy-scratched, rather he was leading his team (not just the forwards, but his entire team) in ice-time.

And yet he still bolts for the KHL regardless.

Then why on Earth wouldn't a young player who is on an ELC and who has said himself that he doesn't want to play defense, and is playing on a perennially bad team and is being healthy-scratched (and whose father is a coach and executive in the KHL) bolt also?

The point that both Glatt and I are making (which you seem to be ignoring) is that if Kovalchuk would do it, then any Russian is a KHL flight risk. And it can be shown that Yakupov is a bigger risk than most.

[doulos]

There's a risk. There are also players who stick around, like Datsyuk. It's not an all or nothing situation like it's being blown up to be.

[Ryanmccor]

Sigh indeed.... first of all we are arguing a very minor point here. I'm not saying Yakupov won't bolt to the KHL in two years, I'm just saying that if he does, that makes him more like a radulov or filatov than a kovalchuk, who had quite a successful NHL career before eventually leaving. And it's funny you should mention Glatt, because he actually gets it: "Yeah, he is Radulov or Nik Zherdev." Perhaps it is you who is the dehydrated horse in this conversation, instant karma.

And thank you for pointing out how different kovalchuk's contract and coaching situation is from Yakupov's, that really helps demonstrate that he's not the best example for this conversation.

And hey hey what's this big reveal, "any Russian is a KHL flight risk." Even if you accept that very tenuous claim (see datsyuk, malkin, fedorov, etc), guess who else is russian? Filatov, zherdev and radulov.

But hey, if you really insist that I just traded for the next Ilya Kovalchuk, in his second year, then hey that's great, I'd much rather have that than any of those other players who left earlier.

[Instant Karma]

That's certainly true.

But what you have to consider when referring to the KHL and players such as Datsyuk is that it was founded five years ago.

It didn't even exist when players such as Datsuk and Kovalchuk came into the league, so the point that those players established themselves in the NHL is sort of an empty one. That alternative didn't exist for them when they came into the league, and yet one of those two eventually walked on a $100 million dollar contract when it did.

That is extermely telling, and everyone who owns European players in general and Russian players in particular ignore that at their own risk.

You also can't ignore that the KHL is growing in significance while the NHL is currently declining in significance, at least in the U.S., where it can't compete with the NBA, who's season runs concurrently with the NHL.

[Instant Karma]

Sigh indeed.... first of all we are arguing a very minor point here. I'm not saying Yakupov won't bolt to the KHL in two years, I'm just saying that if he does, that makes him more like a radulov or filatov than a kovalchuk, who had quite a successful NHL career before eventually leaving. And it's funny you should mention Glatt, because he actually gets it: "Yeah, he is Radulov or Nik Zherdev." Perhaps it is you who is the dehydrated horse in this conversation, instant karma.

And thank you for pointing out how different kovalchuk's contract and coaching situation is from Yakupov's, that really helps demonstrate that he's not the best example for this conversation.

And hey hey what's this big reveal, "any Russian is a KHL flight risk." Even if you accept that very tenuous claim (see datsyuk, malkin, fedorov, etc), guess who else is russian? Filatov, zherdev and radulov.

But hey, if you really insist that I just traded for the next Ilya Kovalchuk, in his second year, then hey that's great, I'd much rather have that than any of those other players who left earlier.

No, Kovalchuk is still a relevant example to the subject at hand, just for the fact that he had every reason to remain in the NHL, and yet chose not to.

Just because Kovalchuk came into the league earlier and played twelve seasons in the NHL (when the KHL didn't even exist for half of those, mind you) means nothing. You are deriving a false sense of security from that.

The only thing of relevance here is that, when offered Option B, he took it. He walked on a 15-year, $100 million contract. So, Yakupov won't walk on an ELC?

[arctic_rogue]

(sigh) You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink.


You didn't answer the question. Just because Kovy played in the NHL for twelve seasons has absolutely zero bearing on whether Yakupov will or not. Zero.

You're missing the entire point. The Devils give Kovy a 15-year, $100 million contract, they go deep in the playoffs, and he also wasn't being healthy-scratched, rather he was leading his team (not just the forwards, but his entire team) in ice-time.

And yet he still bolts for the KHL regardless.

Then why on Earth wouldn't a young player who is on an ELC and who has said himself that he doesn't want to play defense, and is playing on a perennially bad team and is being healthy-scratched (and whose father is a coach and executive in the KHL) bolt also?

The point that both Glatt and I are making (which you seem to be ignoring) is that if Kovalchuk would do it, then any Russian is a KHL flight risk. And it can be shown that Yakupov is a bigger risk than most.

I agree with your statement.

Just one question: How can it be shown, with any degree of confidence, that Yakupov is a bigger flight risk than any other Russian player?

[Instant Karma]

I agree with your statement.

Just one question: How can it be shown, with any degree of confidence, that Yakupov is a bigger flight risk than any other Russian player?

Because Yak has been healthy-scratched, had his ice-time reduced, he's said publicly that he doesn't like playing the game as he is (apparently) being asked to play it, his NHL team perrenially sucks, and his own father is in the KHL are several concrete factors that I could point to here.

In addition to all that, I could also point out that he really doesn't have that much invested in playing in North America and the NHL at this point.

[arctic_rogue]

Because Yak has been healthy-scratched, had his ice-time reduced, he's said publicly that he doesn't like playing the game as he is (apparently) being asked to play it, his NHL team perrenially sucks, and his own father is in the KHL are several concrete factors that I could point to here.

In addition to all that, I could also point out that he really doesn't have that much invested in playing in North America and the NHL at this point.

All valid points. But they do not preclude the fact that he's anymore a risk to the KHL than anyone else.

[Instant Karma]

All valid points. But they do not preclude the fact that he's anymore a risk to the KHL than anyone else.

Those two statements strike me as being contradictory in nature.

Those points that I laid out don't apply to all Russian players, they apply specifically to Yakupov.

So either they would tend to indicate that he is (possibly) more of a KHL flight-risk than other Russian NHL'ers, or they're not valid points at all.