Which D to keep?

[Chicleteur]

Guys,

This is for a 14 teams, pts only league where you get 2 pts for each G or A, 1 pts for each PPP and 2 pts for each SHP. We need to keep 7 players including at least 1 D and a maximum of 2 G. Here are my keepers so far:

Tavares, Backstrom, Nash, Voracek, Luongo and Schneider.

I’m having issue picking my D as I’m really torn between Boyle (older, seems to be on the decline and had a bad year last season) or JJohnson (younger, seems to have settled as a 40-45 D and also had a bad year last season). Dobber has them close in terms of both pts (43 to Boyle, 46 to Johnson) and PPP (21 to Boyle and 25 to Johnson). Using my league categories, Boyle the 19th (107 FH pts) best D while Johnson would be the 12th (117 FH pts). Looking at their respective last 3 years average, Boyle had 39 pts and 19 PPP while Johnson had 33 pts and 18 PPP. As you can see, it’s pretty damn close. Again, using my league categories, Boyle the 7th (97 FH pts) best D while Johnson would be the 16th (84 FH pts) best D.

Would you be happy with one of these? If so, who would you pick?

I could also certainly look to make a deal to get a better one. Looking quickly at the other teams in the league, here are who I think could be available:

Suter (5th with 134 FH pts with Dobber’s projection and 5th with 99 FH pts with the last 3 years average)
or
Yandle (9th with 123 FH pts with Dobber’s projection and 3rd with 104 FH pts with the last 3 years average)

Streit (8th with 125 FH pts with Dobber’s projection and 10th with 91 FH pts with the last 3 years average)
or
DelZotto (11th with 121 FH pts with Dobber’s projection and not enough data for the last 3 years average)

Campbell (6th with 133 FH pts with Dobber’s projection and 11th with 90 FH pts with the last 3 years average)
or
Keith (15th with 112 FH pts with Dobber’s projection and 10th with 91 FH pts with the last 3 years average)

Voynov (20th with 107 FH pts with Dobber’s projection and not enough data for the last 3 years average)

Phaneuf (11th with 121 FH pts with Dobber’s projection and 14th with 86 FH pts with the last 3 years average)
or
Goligoski (13th with 116 FH pts with Dobber’s projection and 15th with 85 FH pts with the last 3 years average)

OEL (14th with 115 FH pts with Dobber’s projection and not enough data for the last 3 years average)

Edler (17th with 109 FH pts with Dobber’s projection and 16th with 84 FH pts with the last 3 years average)
or
Doughty (14th with 115 FH pts with Dobber’s projection and 20th with 79 FH pts with the last 3 years average)

Shattenkirk (19th with 107 FH pts with Dobber’s projection and 14th with 86 FH pts with the last 3 years average)

Aside Suter. Yandle, maybe Streit and Campbell, you can see that most of these guys are clones of Boyle and JJohnson, but should I try to get one of four I mentioned instead of Boyle of JJohnson? I was thinking about some sort of draft pick swap for our annual draft as they would lose these guys for nothing anyway. Would that be enough?

Any thoughts for me?
Thanks!

Chic

[Carcillo]

I'd keep JJ over Boyle. Boyle showed signs of regressing big time last season and I don't see him being the player he once was anymore. He's getting old and it shows. JJ is much younger and has his best years ahead of him. And like you pointed out, he has produced about the same as Boyle the past few seasons already. To me keeping JJ over Boyle is a no-brainer.

However if you can get one of Doughty, OEL, Phaneuf, Yandle, Shattenkirk, Suter or Keith, I'd make the move. They'd be upgrades over JJ.

[als_revenge]

I'd keep JJ over Boyle. Boyle showed signs of regressing big time last season and I don't see him being the player he once was anymore. He's getting old and it shows. JJ is much younger and has his best years ahead of him. And like you pointed out, he has produced about the same as Boyle the past few seasons already. To me keeping JJ over Boyle is a no-brainer.

However if you can get one of Doughty, OEL, Phaneuf, Yandle, Shattenkirk, Suter or Keith, I'd make the move. They'd be upgrades over JJ.

I'd definitely second this. I'd target one of those guys you think you can get for a pick swap, I think that would be the best value.

[Chicleteur]

Yeah, trying to make a deal seems to be the way to go first.

How would you rank the guys I've listed then? I would be tempted to put Suter and Yandle 1st and 2nd, then it's almost flip a coin as the remaining guys are really close to each other and they are even close to Johnson I think.

[Pengwin7]

Dan Boyle, for me.

I think he's a solid defenseman and I think he had an off-year.
Defensemen don't age tremendously and I still have a lot of faith in him putting up big PP numbers.

As last year's stats go... let's not forget that the Western Conference teams played only the West and it was the lower scoring conference.

There could be a small boost to Boyle's point totals.
I'm still a big fan of the SJ PP. It's typically very good.

I think he's still a 40pt defensemen and I wouldn't overpay (i.e. trade) just to get a guy who might be a 45pt defenseman.

[Chicleteur]

Dan Boyle, for me.

I think he's a solid defenseman and I think he had an off-year.
Defensemen don't age tremendously and I still have a lot of faith in him putting up big PP numbers.

As last year's stats go... let's not forget that the Western Conference teams played only the West and it was the lower scoring conference.

There could be a small boost to Boyle's point totals.
I'm still a big fan of the SJ PP. It's typically very good.

I think he's still a 40pt defensemen and I wouldn't overpay (i.e. trade) just to get a guy who might be a 45pt defenseman.

Thanks Pengwin7!

So whether I pick JJ or Boyle, you don't see anyone I've listed worth pursuing?

I've to confess that this was my original thought as there's no "wow" in terms of improvement (it's not like trading for a Karlsson or a Subban). Sure, I can get a D that will give me 5-7 pts more, but I do also think that the top 10 D every year change a lot. There's always the same 2-3 big names at the top, but after these, it can totally be different from a year to another.

Not an easy decision...

[MXHockey]

I think you're on the right track Chic, regarding the turnover of tier 2 Dmen (after Letang, Karlsson, and arguably Subban)

Also, I would have to agree with Pengwin and would also suggest going with Boyle here.


The Sharks core are mostly in their contract years, and I would expect big things from their PP this season.


Cheers.

[Pengwin7]

In points-only, my philosophy is:

1. Karlsson
...
...
2a/2b. Subban/Letang
...
...
About twenty guys that will all finish in some order between 40-55pts (AP, Shatty, Kronwall, Suter, Weber, Edler, Phaneuf, Chara, Streit, Visnovsky, MDZ?, Campbell, Buff, Enstrom, Yandle, Keith, Schultz, Green, Carlson, Gonchar, Goligoski, Doughty, Boyle, Markov, Wideman, OEL... etc, I'm sure I didn't name them all).

This group is just too wide/broad to go trying to pick the right guy.
Not worth trading FOR a guy.
As soon as you ask, you'll be made to overpay.

[Chicleteur]

In points-only, my philosophy is:

1. Karlsson
...
...
2a/2b. Subban/Letang
...
...
About twenty guys that will all finish in some order between 40-55pts (AP, Shatty, Kronwall, Suter, Weber, Edler, Phaneuf, Chara, Streit, Visnovsky, MDZ?, Campbell, Buff, Enstrom, Yandle, Keith, Schultz, Green, Carlson, Gonchar, Goligoski, Doughty, Boyle, Markov, Wideman, OEL... etc, I'm sure I didn't name them all).

This group is just too wide/broad to go trying to pick the right guy.
Not worth trading FOR a guy.
As soon as you ask, you'll be made to overpay.

Yeah, that's exactly what I meant!! That what makes drafting Ds in a pts only tougher than forwards.

I guess the whole idea behind my post was trying to see if people here are seeing a firm upgrade in the guys I've listed. Did you see any?

Yeah, I agree with you that I might have to overpay, but who knows! Like I said, they'll lose these extra Ds for nothing. FYI, 94 players (14 teams * 7) are kept before we start the draft, so I was thinking about swapping my pick in the 6th round (2nd in this round - 72nd pick of the draft for a later pick in the round or even an early in the 7th) for this type of deal. Worst case, doing so with my 4th round pick. Would that be an overpayment?

[Chicleteur]

I think you're on the right track Chic, regarding the turnover of tier 2 Dmen (after Letang, Karlsson, and arguably Subban)

Also, I would have to agree with Pengwin and would also suggest going with Boyle here.


The Sharks core are mostly in their contract years, and I would expect big things from their PP this season.


Cheers.

Yeah, you guys certainly have a good argument for Boyle here... I think I have more faith in SJ's offense vs CBJ one...

[Pengwin7]

re: Draft pick value.
It depends on your overall roster depth.

I traditionally value my top 2/3rds of my roster. (ex. For an 18 player roster, I value the first 12 spots.)
If a roster has, say 18 players (including bench)... and is a keep 10... then I'd really value the first two rounds of re-draft picks.
The last 6 draft spots... I don't care a ton about them.

I find that the bottom 1/3rd of most fantasy teams are swapped out throughout the year.
If that 4th or 6th round pick would be a bottom 1/3rd player on your total roster, then consider trading it away.

[Mattp913]

Id go with JJ

[Chicleteur]

re: Draft pick value.
It depends on your overall roster depth.

I traditionally value my top 2/3rds of my roster. (ex. For an 18 player roster, I value the first 12 spots.)
If a roster has, say 18 players (including bench)... and is a keep 10... then I'd really value the first two rounds of re-draft picks.
The last 6 draft spots... I don't care a ton about them.

I find that the bottom 1/3rd of most fantasy teams are swapped out throughout the year.
If that 4th or 6th round pick would be a bottom 1/3rd player on your total roster, then consider trading it away.

We have 15 starters (3 C, 3 RW, 3 LW, 4 D and 2 G) and 7 BN. So after 5 rounds of draft I should have 12 starters (maybe less as I'll most probably have grabbed another G if not two) so that's almost 2/3rd of my starters. Howerver, if you include the BN, I need about 15 players so my BN guys would be my bottom 1/3rd...

[Pengwin7]

Include your bench guys in your total team count.

So... about your first 15 of 22 players will be on your roster for the entire year.
The bottom 7 or 8 guys you will end up swapping out throughout the season.

[Note: There's often a gem pick in your last 7 or 8 guys... somebody that WILL be on your roster all season. But the majority of those last 7 or 8 guys will be thrown back and exchanged throughout the season]

Summary:
If you keep 7... I'd still consider your next 8 re-draft picks (Players #8-15) to have solid value.
Picks after that (#16-22) will have less & less value.

[Chicleteur]

[Note: There's often a gem pick in your last 7 or 8 guys... somebody that WILL be on your roster all season. But the majority of those last 7 or 8 guys will be thrown back and exchanged throughout the season]

You bet! Last year we were only keeping 6 guys, but I've got Berglund in round 20, Brunner in round 18 and Gonchar in round 16, so there's definitely gem picks later on.

Yeah, I really tend to consider my first 7-8 picks to have high value, so I like to see that this is what you think too.

I guess I now have to figure out if there's somebody out there in the list of possible D that worth losing 8-10 spots in round 6 (or maybe even losing a round). Is there someone on that list who's a clear upgrade to Boyle or JJ?