Pavelec
In looking at Dobber's new guide, Ondrej Pavelec is listed as the 7th best fantasy goalie in the NHL. The next six behind him are Price, Anderson, Luongon, Bobrovsky, Niemi and Holtby.
I know Pavelec will get a ton of starts in Winnipeg, but seriously, doesn't 7th seem a bit high? I had him this off season and offered him to about 5 teams for a late pick, and nobody wanted him as their 2nd goalie.
Pavelec had no shut outs last year, and a quick glance at NHL.com says he was 34th in save percentage.
Is it me, or is he ranked way too high?
On a positive note, Ryan Miller is finally no longer listed as a top-10 fantasy keeper. His slide down the rankings is way overdue.
I must say, even when I disagere with something in this guide, I sure do have a great time thinking things over. Best fantasy hockey resource I've ever owned.
I agree with you, 7th is too high for him. I'd likely put him 12th to 15th or so. Pavelec has all the physical tools to be even a TOP 5 goalie in the NHL but he seems to have no toolbox. He's a mess mentally. I'd like to see him turn it around though.
12 team Full Dynasty w cap. 13F, 7D, 2G, 5B.
G 4.25, A 2.75, PPP 1.5, SHP 3, Hits 0.4, Blocks 0.5, PIM 0.25, DFP 1
W 5 OTL 1 SO 6 SV 0.25 L-1 GS 1
F:Stamkos, C Stew, R Johansen, B Dubinsky, Max Pac, Umberger, B Ryan, D Backes, T Ruutu, Lucic, Ott, MSL, Heatley, C Kunitz, J Benn, L Adam
D: C Fowler, Kronwall, A Goligoski, JM Liles, M Giordano, K Letang, N Nikitin, R Josi
G: J Quick, A Niemi, C Anderson, Rinne
His ranking is based on a points only or wins plus shutout league and does not consider his peripherals.Originally Posted by als_revenge
Evgeni from the Bloc
12 Team, H2H, Keep 10
Daily Starts: 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 5D, 2G
G,A,+/-,PPP, SHP, SOG, HIT, BLK
W, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO
C: Tavares, Malkin, Johansen, Couture
LW: Schenn (C), Kreider, Skinner, Kane
RW: [B]Kucherov, Seguin (C), Wheeler, REinhart (C), Ehlers (LW)
D: Byfuglien, Provorov, Giordano, de Haan, Phaneuf
G: Bobrovsky, Lehner, Saros
2017 Picks: 1,2,3,5,6,6,7,8,9,10,11
Even in Wins+SO, Pavelec should not be 7th. That's a bit much. Nobody's perfect
12 team Full Dynasty w cap. 13F, 7D, 2G, 5B.
G 4.25, A 2.75, PPP 1.5, SHP 3, Hits 0.4, Blocks 0.5, PIM 0.25, DFP 1
W 5 OTL 1 SO 6 SV 0.25 L-1 GS 1
F:Stamkos, C Stew, R Johansen, B Dubinsky, Max Pac, Umberger, B Ryan, D Backes, T Ruutu, Lucic, Ott, MSL, Heatley, C Kunitz, J Benn, L Adam
D: C Fowler, Kronwall, A Goligoski, JM Liles, M Giordano, K Letang, N Nikitin, R Josi
G: J Quick, A Niemi, C Anderson, Rinne
I'm finding goaltending more difficult to manage at the moment than at any other moment in the past two decades. Usually there is a larger lead group than at this moment. Consider carefully that Bobrovsky, Holtby, Nabakov and Niemi where some of the very best goaltenders to own in fantasy last year. None played on a dominant team. Their points totals in fantasy were greatly enhanced by playing a very large number of games.
For various reasons the Elites, didn't run away with the derby. At the moment (forgive me if I forget one) Lundy, Rinne, Quick, Rask, Price, Crawford... lead the derby. Is Luongo back in the mix? Is Fleury back in the mix?
What about Smith? Anderson? Howard? Backstrom? Lehtonen?
A few towns have less clarity.
Pavelec is an excellent talent, just coming nicely into his prime.
I wonder that the NHL maybe has greater parity at this moment than ever before, an effect of the cap.
At this time, if a goaltender gets 70 starts with a playoff or playoff contending team, then he is in a position to achieve top 10 in points. Consider carefully if your goaltenders have backups that can play 20? 30? 40? games.
Some of the more confusing situations this year include: Florida, NJ, Calgary, Toronto, Colorado, Tampa, Anaheim. Young or two goaltender situations make up the teams on this list.
So, I'm not sure that I pick Pavalec seventh, however, if Winnipeg breaks out this season as a solid horse in their division, then this is not a crazy thought. I'm not certain that I choose to support Winnipeg as a solid dark horse, but if you do, then now would be a great time to get Pavelec. I've seen crazier than a Winnipeg type team get their act together. The roster has solid leaders in all positions.
Last edited by JHM; August 2, 2013 at 9:56 AM.
A few people, myself included, have really thought Pavelec should have increased value as his team heads to the lower scoring Western Conference and the division is probably the lowest.
That said, I wouldn't rank him 7th.
I think he IS, though, around 15th.
In a one year league, I would be so bold as to draft Pavelec before Mike Smith, Braden Holtby, Kari Lehtonen, Cory Schneider and Ryan Miller.
He's in that Tier III group of goalies that probably makes up the 12th-20th group of goalies.
Pavelec will start 65-70 games this year. Even if Winnipeg hovers around .500 that means Pavs can win 30 games.
Is Pavelec the 7th best goalie in a roto league? Hell no he's around 25th. In a straight wins or wins+SO he's at least in the conversation for top 10 simply because he plays so much.
20 Team Dynasty (points per) - G (25, 50 for defense) A (25) PIM (3) PPP (15) SHP (25) OTG (15) GWG (25) HTr (50) SOW (75) HIT (1) BLK (2) W (50) SHO (100) OTL (10) GA (-15) SV (2) Use actual NHL salary
Start 12 F, 6 D, 1G weekly
F: Kucherov, Marchand, Barkov, Gaudreau, Laine, Aho, Dubois, Dadonov, Huberdeau, Trocheck, Bertuzzi, Beauvillier, Khaira, Grigorenko
D: Ekman-Larsson, Yandle, Edler, Pulock, Borowiecki, Weegar, Mike Reilly
G: Andersen, Hart
Farm: Boldy, Beckman, Wise, Mascherin, Kovalenko, Manukyan, Walker, Morozov, Shafigullin, Palmu, Tychonic, Zhuravlyov, Kesselring, Zamula, Lankinen, Sogaard, Ingram, Rybar
I get that Dobber's goalie rankings are based only on wins and shutouts (maybe saves too? can't recall), but I'd love to see a second set of goalie rankings that factors in SV% and GAA.
The other factor that seems to be ignored is the number of man games that must be used up in order to get to decent win totals. For instance, it will probably take Pavelec at least 60-65 starts to get to 30 wins, whereas it might take Halak only 50 starts to get to 30 wins on a much better St. Louis team. If that were the case, the value of those extra 10-15 man games should be factored in, at least in leagues with games-played limits.
Overall, I think Pavelec sucks, his contract is horrible for the Jets, and he'll be run out of the league as a starter eventually. I traded for Pavs a couple of years ago - since then I've watched a lot of him, searching for signs of improvement, but ultimately I think my trade was a mistake.
Last edited by jsuites; August 2, 2013 at 5:56 PM.
10 team roto, Keep 17 + 50 farmers (Farm GP limits 246 F, 328 D and 200 G). Dress 9F 5D 1Ut 2G (G, A, D-pts, +/-, PPP, PIM, SOG, Hits, Blks, W, SV%, GAA)
F- Tavares Bergeron Simmonds Kucherov Radulov Skinner JVR Brown R. Smith Perron Kesler
D- Doughty Josi Giordano Suter Muzzin Boroweicki
G- Dubnyk Murray Smith
Farm highlights: Abramov, Chlapik, Cirelli, Kunin, Mantha, McCarron, Perlini, Johnsson, Zykov, Ritchie, Honka, Kylington, Sorokin, C. Point, Dansk
Just wins and shutouts. In about the same number of projected starts, Pavelec is predicted to get more wins (35 in 64GP) than Niemi (34 in 68GP), Holtby (34 in 61GP), Anderson (33 in 65GP), Bobrovsky (33 in 67GP), Fleury (31 in 61 GP). So I guess Winnipeg will be better than SJ, Washington, Ottawa, Columbus and Pittsburgh. I just don't see that.
The other big factor is shutouts. Pavelec had no shut outs last year, despite playing more games than any goalie last year. But the projections for his year have only four goalies (Rask, Lundqvist, Quick and Rinne) getting more than Pavelec.
Again, I just don't see it.
Absolutely love the guide, great value. And generates a lot of fun discussion too.
I'm glad to see that others were wondering the same thing as me: why dobber has Pavelec ranked so high?
What does everyone think of the "behind the scenes" stats regarding the number of back to back games, total off nights, number of home games, quality of competition, etc? If these are reliable indicators of a team's performance then perhaps it's not so far-fetched to see Winnipeg/Pavelec excel this season.
12 teams, H2H Points, Limited Keeper League (10th year), 6 keepers. 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2UTIL, 2G
G (2), A (1), +/- (0.5), PIM (0.2), GWG (1), HAT (2), HIT (0.1), BLK (0.2), PPP (1), SHP (2)
W (3), L (-1), GA (-1.), SV (0.2), SO (2)
Keepers = Barkov, Panarin, Marner, Stone, Josi, Fleury
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