The Six Pack - Brad Richards Bounces Back

[MXHockey]

The Six Pack

By MolsonX

The six pack you ask? Sorry to disappoint gentlemen (and ladies), but this is not an article about improving your abdominal muscles. My condolences gentlemen (and ladies), as this is not an article about great beer.

Instead, for this month's edition of The Six Pack, we focus on one player who has taken a huge value hit in keeper leagues, and who will slide on draft day in one year leagues. As we all know, players in the top tiers are the obvious choices when it comes to keeper lists and draft rankings. It's the 2nd and 3rd tiers where player values get tricky, and depending on your league's settings, Brad Richards has fallen into one of those tiers, maybe even further.

Everyone knows Richards is coming off of an average season. Everyone knows there has been a coaching change in New York. Some people know that Richards is working on his fitness this summer with the same trainer (Ben Prentiss) as Martin St. Louis. So does anyone know that Richards will bounce back and have a pretty good season?

Why would anyone think it's possible, considering that Richards looked off last year, and struggled through the regular season. He looked uninspired in the playoffs, and worked his way into the press box as a healthy scratch. He's just turned 33-years-old this past Spring, and is reaching the age where players see a decline in their numbers. He is approaching his 1000th NHL game (900 regular season plus 93 playoff games) which suggests he may be on his "last legs".

There are so many reasons why it could be time to write Richards off and draft him as a player with 60 point upside who is spiraling into a 50 point player. But let's stop the negativity right there. Here are six reasons why Richards will have a fantastic 2013-2014 campaign:


1) Coaching:

Tortorella may have banished Richards to the press box last season, but Richards was given every opportunity last year to play the minutes that his contract said he should be playing. Richards averaged 18:49/game during the regular season, which will be similar to what he sees this year. To think that the Richards will get more opportunities under Vigneault would be short sighted. Richards will get the same opportunities under Vigneault, no more and no less.

So what is the upside here? Richards will be leaned on more by a more offensive minded coach. In Dallas, Richards came off seasons of 91 points and 77 points before signing with the Rangers. This was followed up in New York with seasons of 66 points and last season's pro-rated 60 points. A great decline, but partially attributed to team systems and defensive minded coaching.

Tortorella is a respected coach, but Richards was clearly tired of hearing his voice for the second time in his career. With Vigneault, Richards will get first power play time and offensive zone starts. Most importantly, he gets a fresh start with a new coach.


2) Fitness:

Richards is addressing his fitness. This is a huge sign that he's motivated to prove his critics wrong. Jeff Angus has touched on this in another article featuring personal trainer Ben Prentiss, and the links below offer some more insight on Richards' focus on fitness this off season.

http://snyrangersblog.com/2012-13-pl...e-this-summer/

http://www.anguscertified.com/tag/ben-prentiss/

Anyone who watched Richards last season could see how slow he looked. This writer watched a number of playoff games, and Richards looked a step behind and out of shape. Personally, I think the lockout made him complacent with his fitness, and he came into the season a step behind and never caught up.


3) Motivation:

The fact that Richards is taking a serious approach to his fitness this off season is one plus. But you have to remember that he is a Conn Smythe winner and a Stanley Cup champion. Richards is a fierce competitor and doesn't come across as the type of player that will float to the bank with his fat contract. The last time Richards faced a big change (being traded to Dallas) in 2007-2008, he responded with a five point night. One would think that a coaching change, being a healthy scratch in the playoffs, and this summer's whispers of a contract buy out will only motivate him to find his past form.

We're talking about a 64th overall pick in the third round of the 1998 draft who has played his entire career like a top three pick. He's faced obstacles before and overcome them. It would be foolish to doubt him in 2013-14.


4) The Numbers:

Over the past four seasons, Richards is coming off of campaigns of 91, 77, 66, and a pro-rated 60 point season after the lock out. One could look at this as a declining player, or one could perceive this as the bad actually not being that bad. In what was clearly the worst season of his career, Richards still scored at a 60 point pace. He was out of shape and in Tortorella's dog house (where he deserved to be), but still scored at a 60 point pace.

Over his entire career of 13 seasons, Richards has never had a season where he has scored at less than a 60 point pace. So going into this year, you are guaranteed 60 points. Not much risk here when you really think about it.


5) Historical Health:

One should also take into account Richards heath history over his career. Despite almost 1000 career games, Richards has never come close to being a band-aid. Richards has played in over 80 games in nine out of 12 seasons. He has played in over 72 games in 11 out of 12 seasons. The only blip came in 2008-2009 when he played 56 games due to injury. In the lockout shortened season, Richards played 46 out of 48 games for a 78 game pace.

Over his entire career Richards has averaged 77.67 games per season. While some may be down on him after this past season, the fact that he is rarely injured makes him a very reliable fantasy option in all leagues.


6) End of Season Reliability:

For those of you who are in H2H playoff leagues, or who need a late season surge, Richards is a very reliable option. Look at his regular season numbers to close out the past three seasons.

2012-13: 19 points in his last 20 games
2011-12: 24 points in his last 20 games
2010-11: 18 points in his last 20 games



Conclusion:

A new coach, a new focus on personal fitness, countless reasons to be motivated, a history of great health, consistent career statistics, and a solid late season performer - Brad Richards will get you 70 points next season and probably more.

Follow the advice of The Six Pack. If you're in a dynasty don't sell low, but instead wait until next year and sell high. For those of you in one year leagues, don't let Richards slide too far in your draft, and onto the rosters of your competitors. You will be sorry.


Cheers.

[habs83]

Great stuff!! Will we really have to wait another month for the next Six Pack??

[Axeman33]

Good write up, well written with some solid points.

[Pengwin7]

Very nice.
Throw some BOLD on the part where you say B-Rich will score 70pts.
I like to see one bolded or italicized line per article.

People want to see something that immediately sparks their curiosity.
If they see that, they'll be likely to read the rest.
Bold it... or put it as the first line of the article: "Brad Richards will score 70pts next season".

BOOM, hooked.

[Good content... but the intro to this is very, uh mundane/boring. HOOK ME!!!]

[MXHockey]

Very nice.
Throw some BOLD on the part where you say B-Rich will score 70pts.
I like to see one bolded or italicized line per article.

People want to see something that immediately sparks their curiosity.
If they see that, they'll be likely to read the rest.
Bold it... or put it as the first line of the article: "Brad Richards will score 70pts next season".

BOOM, hooked.

[Good content... but the intro to this is very, uh mundane/boring. HOOK ME!!!]

Thanks for the feedback Pengwin. Good point about using bold in spots to emphasize the message.

Will definitely come up with a more engaging intro for the next one.


Cheers.

[Dakkster]

I'm going full editor on this since you asked me to take a look at it I've sprinkled some notes in parentheses in the quoted text. Here are some other thoughts.

- Ditch the double sentence spacing. That's archaic from typewriter days. One space after a full stop.
- You don't need a comma before every "and", only before the ones that start a new independent clause. An independent clause has a proper subject and verb.
- Change stuff like "2nd" and "3rd" to "second" and "third" when it comes to low numbers.
- I would strongly consider becoming consistent with your use of contractions. Right now it's a wide mix of "it's" and "he is". Pick one and stick with it. IMO it looks better without contractions.

It might look like a bunch of corrections, but a lot of them are of the same type, so you've done pretty well. I like the piece, although I don't want Richards to steal the thunder of (my) Stepan

The Six Pack

By MolsonX

The six pack you ask? Sorry to disappoint gentlemen (and ladies), but this is not an article about improving your abdominal muscles. My condolences gentlemen (and ladies), as this is not an article about great beer. (needs commas before every "gentlemen")

Instead, for this month's edition of The Six Pack, we focus on one player who has taken a huge value hit in keeper leagues, and who will slide on draft day in one year leagues. As we all know, players in the top tiers are the obvious choices when it comes to keeper lists and draft rankings. It's the 2nd and 3rd tiers where player values get tricky, and depending on your league's settings, Brad Richards has fallen into one of those tiers, maybe even further.

Everyone knows Richards is coming off of an average season. Everyone knows there has been a coaching change in New York. Some people know that Richards is working on his fitness this summer with the same trainer (Ben Prentiss) as Martin St. Louis. So does anyone know that Richards will bounce back and have a pretty good season?

Why would anyone think it's possible, considering that Richards looked off last year, and struggled through the regular season. (the previous sentence is a question, end it with a question mark. I'd change it to "Considering that Richards looked off last year and struggled through the regular season, why would anyone think it's possible?") He looked uninspired in the playoffs, and worked his way into the press box as a healthy scratch. He's just turned 33-years-old (in thise case you're not using his age as an adjective phrase, so you need to ditch the hyphens) this past Spring, and is reaching the age where players see a decline in their numbers. He is approaching his 1000th NHL game (900 regular season plus 93 playoff games) which suggests he may be on his "last legs". (unnecessary to put that in quotation marks)

There are so many reasons why it could be time to write Richards off and draft him as a player with 60 point (hyphenate into 60-point) upside who is spiraling into a 50 point (hyphenate into 50-point) player. But let's stop the negativity right there. (I'd include this last small sentence in the previous one) Here are six reasons why Richards will have a fantastic 2013-2014 campaign:


1) Coaching:

Tortorella may have banished Richards to the press box last season, but Richards was given every opportunity last year to play the minutes that his contract said he should be playing. Richards averaged 18:49/game during the regular season, which will be similar to what he sees this year. To think that the Richards ("the" Richards?) will get more opportunities under Vigneault would be short sighted (shortsighted). Richards will get the same opportunities under Vigneault, no more and no less.

So what is the upside here? Richards will be leaned on more by a more offensive minded (offensive-minded) coach. In Dallas, Richards came off seasons of 91 points and 77 points before signing with the Rangers. This was followed up in New York with seasons of 66 points and last season's pro-rated 60 points. A great decline, but partially attributed to team systems and defensive minded (defensive-minded) coaching.

Tortorella is a respected coach, but Richards was clearly tired of hearing his voice for the second time in his career. With Vigneault, Richards will get first power play time and offensive zone starts. Most importantly, he gets a fresh start with a new coach.


2) Fitness:

Richards is addressing his fitness. This is a huge sign that he's motivated to prove his critics wrong. Jeff Angus has touched on this in another article featuring personal trainer Ben Prentiss, and the links below offer some more insight on Richards' (I love you for not writing "Richard's"...) focus on fitness this off season.

http://snyrangersblog.com/2012-13-pl...e-this-summer/

http://www.anguscertified.com/tag/ben-prentiss/

Anyone who watched Richards last season could see how slow he looked. This writer watched a number of playoff games, and Richards looked a step behind and out of shape. Personally, I think the lockout made him complacent with his fitness, and he came into the season a step behind and never caught up.


3) Motivation:

The fact that Richards is taking a serious approach to his fitness this off season (off-season) is one plus. But you have to remember that he is a Conn Smythe winner and a Stanley Cup champion. (the previous two sentences should be one) Richards is a fierce competitor and doesn't come across as the type of player that (not incorrect, but I think "who" is better here) will float to the bank with his fat contract. The last time Richards faced a big change (being traded to Dallas) in 2007-2008, he responded with a five point (five-point) night. One would think that a coaching change, being a healthy scratch in the playoffs, and this summer's whispers of a contract buy out (buyout = noun, buy out = compound verb) will only motivate him to find his past form.

We're talking about a 64th overall pick in the third round of the 1998 draft who has played his entire career like a top three pick. He's faced obstacles before and overcome them. It would be foolish to doubt him in 2013-14.


4) The Numbers:

Over the past four seasons, Richards is coming off of campaigns of 91, 77, 66, and a pro-rated 60 point season after the lock out. (lockout = noun, lock out = compound verb) One could look at this as a declining player, or one could perceive this as the bad actually not being that bad. In what was clearly the worst season of his career, Richards still scored at a 60 point (60-point) pace. He was out of shape and in Tortorella's dog house (where he deserved to be), but still scored at a 60 point (60-point) pace.

Over his entire career of 13 seasons, Richards has never had a season where he has scored at less than a 60 point (60-point) pace. So going into this year, you are guaranteed 60 points. (previous two sentences should be one) Not much risk here when you really think about it. (I'd start this sentence with "There is")


5) Historical Health:

One should also take into account Richards heath (health) history over his career. Despite almost 1000 career games, Richards has never come close to being a band-aid. (boy... he's not something that stops bleeding, right? ) Richards has played in over 80 games in nine out of 12 seasons. He has played in over 72 games in 11 out of 12 seasons. The only blip came in 2008-2009 when he played 56 games due to injury. In the lockout shortened (lockout-shortened) season, Richards played 46 out of 48 games for a 78 game (78-game) pace.

Over his entire career Richards has averaged 77.67 games per season. While some may be down on him after this past season, the fact that he is rarely injured makes him a very reliable fantasy option in all leagues.


6) End of Season Reliability:

For those of you who are in H2H playoff leagues, or who need a late season surge, Richards is a very reliable option. Look at his regular season numbers to close out the past three seasons.

2012-13: 19 points in his last 20 games
2011-12: 24 points in his last 20 games
2010-11: 18 points in his last 20 games



Conclusion:

A new coach, a new focus on personal fitness, countless reasons to be motivated, a history of great health, consistent career statistics, and a solid late season (late-season) performer - Brad Richards will get you 70 points next season and probably more.

Follow the advice of The Six Pack. If you're in a dynasty (comma here) don't sell low, but instead wait until next year and sell high. For those of you in one year (one-year) leagues, don't let Richards slide too far in your draft, and onto the rosters of your competitors. You will be sorry.


Cheers.

[ross10019]

Great piece Molson X. There's a good chance Richards rebounds for the reasons you suggest, but I'm not sure how much of his being "slow" last year was attributable to lack of fitness as opposed to him just getting slower with age. To me this could mean that his 75+ days are long gone and he'll be more like a 60-pt guy for the rest of his career.

[bondon]

Was a nice read buddy, good job!

[als_revenge]

I'm not convinced that Brad Richards can wrestle the 1C back from Derek Stepan. And it wouldn't totally shock me if he ends up being an amnesty buy-out next year. But I certainly agree that it's a terrible time to be selling him, I can't imagine his value being any lower than it is right now. While I do not agree with the premise, it was an entertaining article to read. Well done, and rep, sir.

[MXHockey]

I'm going full editor on this since you asked me to take a look at it I've sprinkled some notes in parentheses in the quoted text. Here are some other thoughts.

- Ditch the double sentence spacing. That's archaic from typewriter days. One space after a full stop.
- You don't need a comma before every "and", only before the ones that start a new independent clause. An independent clause has a proper subject and verb.
- Change stuff like "2nd" and "3rd" to "second" and "third" when it comes to low numbers.
- I would strongly consider becoming consistent with your use of contractions. Right now it's a wide mix of "it's" and "he is". Pick one and stick with it. IMO it looks better without contractions.

It might look like a bunch of corrections, but a lot of them are of the same type, so you've done pretty well. I like the piece, although I don't want Richards to steal the thunder of (my) Stepan

Thanks Dakkster. Great tips.

I really appreciate you taking the time to give me some great feedback.

Rep to you when I reload.


Cheers.

[MXHockey]

Great piece Molson X. There's a good chance Richards rebounds for the reasons you suggest, but I'm not sure how much of his being "slow" last year was attributable to lack of fitness as opposed to him just getting slower with age. To me this could mean that his 75+ days are long gone and he'll be more like a 60-pt guy for the rest of his career.

I hear what you're saying ross, and thanks for your comments.

I think his vision and offensive instincts are too good. His body just wasn't keeping up. I could see how players would have been complacent with their fitness last year, especially as the lock-out went longer and it looked as though the entire season was going to be lost.

I think Richards saw a repeat of 04-05 looming, and threw in the towel on working out and stopped preparing for the season.


I see a huge bounce back next year, he has too much to prove and I think he will answer his critics. I just wonder if he will stay committed to his fitness and continue the trend for the following season, or if he will be satisfied with his bounce back season and then fade away. That's why I suggest hold and then sell next off season, or late in the year.


I flipped you some rep for your comments, very appreciated. Cheers.

[newfcollins]

Nice article. Loved the end-of-year stats. It might mean if Richards struggles again at the start of the season, he'd be a great cheap mid-season trade/pickup, depending on the league setup.

The only thing that bothers me is that when looking at his points the last few seasons, you stop at the 91-point season. It's interesting to note that in the last eight seasons, only twice did he get more than 70 points (those being the last two seasons in Dallas). To me, this seems like more of an outlier than the norm. So it might be tough to crack 70 again.

But then again, I love bold predictions. You have to go out on a limb with these sorts of things, and you have lots of stuff to back it up. Great job.

[ross10019]

I hear what you're saying ross, and thanks for your comments.

I think his vision and offensive instincts are too good. His body just wasn't keeping up. I could see how players would have been complacent with their fitness last year, especially as the lock-out went longer and it looked as though the entire season was going to be lost.

I think Richards saw a repeat of 04-05 looming, and threw in the towel on working out and stopped preparing for the season.

I see a huge bounce back next year, he has too much to prove and I think he will answer his critics. I just wonder if he will stay committed to his fitness and continue the trend for the following season, or if he will be satisfied with his bounce back season and then fade away. That's why I suggest hold and then sell next off season, or late in the year.

I flipped you some rep for your comments, very appreciated. Cheers.

Thanks bud.

That's the thing. I think his vision and offensive instincts are still there even though he has confidence issues where he struggles despite that (I saw one particular game last year where he was terrible with his decision-making, failing to shoot in obvious shooting situations, shooting when the obvious play was to dish it off, etc. - he looked like a raw rookie). But he's never been a great skater and he's now noticeably slow out there, one of the worst skaters on the Rangers, in my opinion. That's been his undoing, and I'm not sure fitness level will be enough to address that. And if his confidence issues continue into this season, watch out, it spells more disaster.

[ericdaoust]

What amazes me is that with all of the drama and negativity he was still on pace for 61 points.

[PrairieDog]

Very good article - I also think he has a bounce back year. I didn't realise that despite all the negative press he's gotten that he was still on pace for a 60 pt season.

I also think he'll be on the second line, but likely with PP1 minutes as well (he's been used on the point before if memory serves).