Fair Value for Luongo?

[nate_avsfan11]

So after rebuilding last yr and compiling a bunch of prospects and picks, im trying to get a somewhat contender for this year and I need a starting goalie to go along with Crawford and the duo of Lindback/Bishop. I currently hold the 6th, 8th and 10th overall picks in this years draft as well as a few pretty good prospects, such as Saad, Baertschi, Hertl, Etem, Armia, Trouba, B Smith, S Elliot. Im trying to shed prospects/picks for roster players and want to make sure i dont give up too much for Luongo.

My latest offer from another team: 6th pick (Monahan), Armia, M Foligno for Lu...too much? (Leaning towards too much)

He said he would also do 8th pick and one of Saad, Baertschi, Trouba but i dont want to have to lose any of those 3 guys.

Is it worth giving up these young guys for Lu's 2, maybe 3, years of service? I like Vancouvers chances this year and see him getting back to his old self.

[Pengwin7]

I would definitely trade away the 6th overall pick/Armia/M.Foligno for Luongo.

You have a 8/5 category split.
Especially with saves... having three #1 goalie is ideal AND critical.

That prospect package for Luongo is nothing.... do it NOW.
Also... the other package isn't bad too.
I know Trouba is highly touted, but in a 4D league... defenseman value is fairly low.

Unless a defenseman is going to be an ELITE multi-cat stud (i.e. Karlsson/Subban/ Weber/Chara Buff/Letang)... they shouldn't be overvalued.

I'd also make deal #2 with the 8th+Trouba.
But I'd definitely make deal #1 first.


EDIT: I'm noticing that you don't list Armia/M.Foligno in your SIG. Different leagues? Different scoring categories?

[mister_mcgoo]

#1 starting goalie on a strong team vs. some mid-tier prospects who may or may not even play in the NHL? Yes please.

You might want to go back and forth with him a bit to see if you can sweeten the offer but there's not much not to like about it

[nate_avsfan11]

I would definitely trade away the 6th overall pick/Armia/M.Foligno for Luongo.


EDIT: I'm noticing that you don't list Armia/M.Foligno in your SIG. Different leagues? Different scoring categories?

Yes different league. 12/6 split but still 4 D. Offer on the table now is 8th plus Baertschi, and it sounds like i should still take it, no?

8th and Trouba? or better to do 6th, Armia, another "bad" prosepct?

[mounD]

Like Pengwin said, the 6th + Armia + M Foligno is an absolute steal for you, but I would still be all over the offer of 8th + Baertschi. It looks like the kid will probably inherit top-line minutes this season, and with the 8th pick you're looking at a Max Domi-type; however, a goaltender as valuable (and consistent) as Luongo is absolute larceny for a mere couple prospects.

Here is a link to 5v5 Sv% over the past 3 seasons (2010-13 // >3000 minutes): http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rati...tA&sortdir=ASC

As you can see, Luongo ranks 4th overall during that timespan with a 5v5 Sv% of .9302. These are elite numbers, and anyone who says that Luongo is too much if a risk is paying attention to a small sample size, or just talking nonsense. Furthermore, Luongo reassumes the workhorse (65+) starting job on a solid VAN team, and there is serious motivation to play well in order to secure the Team Canada #1 job for Sochi2014. Judging all these factors, Luongo is a top-tier / borderline elite fantasy option, and the fact that you're acquiring him for a couple prospects makes this deal a slam-dunk.

Pull the trigger.