Quick Ovie trade

[domal]

I'd be trading my Kessel and Tlusty for Ovechkin.
Pts only, NHL cap, keeper league.

Team in Sig.

Is picking up Ovie worth getting rid of depth? I already have Crosby, Malkin and Stamkos.

[Brosive]

In a limited keeper, you always upgrade your keepers like this whenever you can.. so YES, absolutely do this trade.

out of curiousity, how many keepers do you keep at the end of the season?

having crosby, malkin, stamkos, and ovechkin in a 30 team league is unheard of

[domal]

In a limited keeper, you always upgrade your keepers like this whenever you can.. so YES, absolutely do this trade.

out of curiousity, how many keepers do you keep at the end of the season?

having crosby, malkin, stamkos, and ovechkin in a 30 team league is unheard of

Our keepers are 7F, 3D, 2G.
I know getting Ovechkin is sweet, but it does make my cap management pretty tough!

[kevinsrangers]

yes, do it.

[STONE.]

Whoa. With a cap, I'd be much more hesitant. I love Ovy and think he's better than we've seen the last two years, but I'm not sure he's worth the money. Cap leagues are all about money management, and that's a hefty price.

With points-only (no hits, PIMs, etc.) he's even riskier. If he's back to 120 points, then yes. At 80-85, no.

I'd have to really look into your team and cap situation, but I'm thinking this is probably not a great move. He's just too expensive.

Kessel at a 4 million discount (and shorter term to be gambling on) at nearly the same production? I'd take Kessel methinks.

[domal]

Whoa. With a cap, I'd be much more hesitant. I love Ovy and think he's better than we've seen the last two years, but I'm not sure he's worth the money. Cap leagues are all about money management, and that's a hefty price.

With points-only (no hits, PIMs, etc.) he's even riskier. If he's back to 120 points, then yes. At 80-85, no.

I'd have to really look into your team and cap situation, but I'm thinking this is probably not a great move. He's just too expensive.

Yeah, it is a money management problem.
I have Crosby and Malkin at 8.7M
Stamkos @ 7.5
Kessel @ 5.4
Hemsky @ 5.5
Markov @ 5.7
Letang @3.5
Bryz @5.6
Miller @ 6.2

These are my heavy contracts. Adding Ovechkin wouldn't really help, but I could try move out Hemsky/Markov/Bryz/Miller to make the cap work better for me.

[STONE.]

In a points only pool, when you're getting around PPG from Kessel for 5.4, why pay 9.5 for Ovy's PPG.

If you're convinced he'll be 100+ again, then you can jump on it. I think the gamble's too much. Plus, if he doesn't get back to those days, he's virtually untrade-able. His contract is forever long, so it's not a "problem" that will go away anytime soon.

With Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, and Kessel already in tow, I'd be looking for bargains to fill out the roster.

Actually, with the Cap dropping next year, I'm guessing you'll be screwed regardless. Are you gonna be able to retain those 4? It's only gonna get tougher.

[domal]

In a points only pool, when you're getting around PPG from Kessel for 5.4, why pay 9.5 for Ovy's PPG.

If you're convinced he'll be 100+ again, then you can jump on it. I think the gamble's too much. Plus, if he doesn't get back to those days, he's virtually untrade-able. His contract is forever long, so it's not a "problem" that will go away anytime soon.

With Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, and Kessel already in tow, I'd be looking for bargains to fill out the roster.

Actually, with the Cap dropping next year, I'm guessing you'll be screwed regardless. Are you gonna be able to retain those 4? It's only gonna get tougher.

I won't be "screwed" next year, I'll just have to be thrifty with my remaining cap. I do have a few guys that are high cap hits that I should be thinking of moving like Hemsky, Markov, Miller/ Bryz. All 4 of those guys are carrying pretty hefty price tags for their production.

[Pengwin7]

Take the trade.
Don't worry about the cap.

You can do a search on "high low theory" and find everything I have to say about stocking high-end talent in cap leagues.

EVERY year, players emerge that are making just $1.5m or so. (see Dupuis, Pascal)
If you make a team with 5 SUPERSTARS and 8 scrubs, it will still outperform a team with 13 average players.

Why?
Because you can always find a "hot scrub" (some kid, Beau Bennett or Patrick Weircioch) who is performing because of team need at some position. These guys are always around, all year.

Stock the ELITE talent (even at the price tag) and then scoop the "VALUE" that is young players finding a role.

Take Ovechkin.

[STONE.]

Take the trade.
Don't worry about the cap.

You can do a search on "high low theory" and find everything I have to say about stocking high-end talent in cap leagues.

EVERY year, players emerge that are making just $1.5m or so. (see Dupuis, Pascal)
If you make a team with 5 SUPERSTARS and 8 scrubs, it will still outperform a team with 13 average players.

Why?
Because you can always find a "hot scrub" (some kid, Beau Bennett or Patrick Weircioch) who is performing because of team need at some position. These guys are always around, all year.

Stock the ELITE talent (even at the price tag) and then scoop the "VALUE" that is young players finding a role.

Take Ovechkin.

Even giving up a cheaper Kessel to do it?
I'm a believer in Ovy, but looking over the past two years in a points-only, it's not like you're gaining the world.

Like I said initially, if you think Ovy is 100+, it's worth further contemplation. I'm not sure you're getting enough here for the money. Four million is a lot to cough up for 10 points or so per season.

[Pengwin7]

Even giving up a cheaper Kessel to do it?
I'm a believer in Ovy, but looking over the past two years in a points-only, it's not like you're gaining the world.

Like I said initially, if you think Ovy is 100+, it's worth further contemplation. I'm not sure you're getting enough here for the money. Four million is a lot to cough up for 10 points or so per season.

+10pts itself is significant.
I've soured on Ovechkin too, but I'd still peg him for 75-80pts.
I'd peg Kessel for 65-70pts.
Well... it's more of a comparison of two forwards for $10m vs. $10m.

$9.5m (cap hit): Ovechkin, 80pts
$0.5m (cap hit): PlayerX, 40pts

vs.

$5.4m (cap hit): Kessel, 70pts
$4.6m (cap hit): Player Y, 60pts

There is always some forward available in most leagues that is available on the waiver wire that can play at a 40pt pace (This year: S.Gionta, Z.Smith, T.Wingels, E.Fehr - all have had their moments of a point-every-other-game).
So, the Ovechkin side, IMO, is good for 120pts.

With Kessel's $5.4m cap hit, the $4.6m in space could probably find a 60pt player... and yes, that would give him 130pts. (better than Ovechkin).
But that's for just ONE more year.
Kessel has one more full year left on his contract.
And after that, Kessel is probably going to get a contract around $7m/year to $7.5m/year.

$7.25m (cap hit): Kessel, 70pts
$2.75m (cap hit): Player Y, 50pts

$3m players are getting to be pretty common. Clarke MacArthur, Devin Setoguchi, Mikael Samuelsson.... 50pt guys.


Ovechkin's long-term contract may play well in this scenario.
You get a bonafide producer and you know that you can simply pair him with an emerging player... and stream these guys in as they are hot.

[domal]

So, Update:
Ended up with a deal of:

Ovechkin
Latendresse
Weise,D (roster drop)

for
Kessel
Tlusty
Hemsky

I think I did decently in the trade.