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Thread: goalie playoff strategy - weekly starts play BOS tandem?

  1. #1
    cdubb's Avatar
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    Default goalie playoff strategy - weekly starts play BOS tandem?

    Get a bye into the playoff semifinals (starting April 1st). Both the semis and finals are two weeks long.

    Goalie categories (W=1, GAA=1, SV%=1, SHO=1, GS=0.5) count for 4.5 out of 16.75 weekly points.

    I have Rask (1st overall), Niemi (8th overall), Bobrovsky (4th overall), Khudobin.

    Last 2 weeks:
    Bob 6 GS, 4W, 1.11, 0.966, 2 SHO
    Rask 5 GS, 3W, 1.38, 0.945, 1 SHO
    Khudobin 3 GS, 2 W, 1.68, 0.947
    Niemi 7 GS, 2 W, 3.55, 0.884

    Had been riding Rask/Niemi all season, and got and Khudobin for insurance recently. Now with Niemi struggling (and if continues to struggle) have to decide whether to:

    (a) play Rask + Bob/Niemi
    - Bob's been on fire (especially at home), but more road games left
    - go for Niemi if SJ turns it around

    (b) play Rask + Khudobin
    - Basically would lose GS, might lose Ws, but likely preserve GAA, SV%

    Is the 2nd strategy crazy? thinking I should just play whoever's hot between Bob/Niemi
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    Who are their opponents for the week?
    8 Team Yahoo Weekly H2H (1yr)
    3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 1Util, 2G, 4BN, 3IR
    G, A, +/-, PPG, PPA, SHG, SHA, GWG, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK
    W, L, GA, GAA, SV, SA, SV%, SHO

    C: Tavares, Eric Staal, Getzlaf, Ribeiro
    LW: Lupul (LW,RW), Hartnell, Elias (C,LW), Cammalleri (C,LW), Ott (C,LW)
    RW: Malkin (C,RW), Backes (C,RW), Seguin (C,RW), Callahan
    D: Pietrangelo, Ekman-Larsson, Subban, Bouwmeester, Streit, Burns (D,RW), Wisniewski
    G: Rask, Backstrom, Bobrovsky
    IR: Spezza (C), Oshie (C,RW)

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    Semifinals
    CLB - @NAS, @STL (B2B), MIN, SJ, STL, @MIN (B2B)
    BOS - OTT, NJ, @MTL, CAR, @NJ, NYI (B2B), CAR
    SJ - VAN, MIN, CGY, DAL, @CBJ, @DET, @DAL

    CLB has a couple B2B's, and playing STL and MIN twice.

    BOS has decent schedule I think (7 games)

    SJ just has VAN and DET to worry about?
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    Quote Originally Posted by cdubb View Post
    Semifinals
    CLB - @NAS, @STL (B2B), MIN, SJ, STL, @MIN (B2B)
    BOS - OTT, NJ, @MTL, CAR, @NJ, NYI (B2B), CAR
    SJ - VAN, MIN, CGY, DAL, @CBJ, @DET, @DAL

    CLB has a couple B2B's, and playing STL and MIN twice.

    BOS has decent schedule I think (7 games)

    SJ just has VAN and DET to worry about?
    I'm in a similar situation to you, holding both Boston goalies.
    I'm trending towards strategy "A"... But since you count games played, I think you're best off going with plan "B". I'd play Rask and stream favorable match-ups with Niemi and Bob. You'll probably be in good shape...
    Yahoo! H2H, 1 year, 12 teams, Daily starts
    G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HITS, W, GAA, SV%, SO
    2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2G, 5BN, IR, 3IR+
    Used 41/45 moves
    ---------------------
    C} Matthews, Barkov, Hertl
    LW} B.Tkachuk(C), Guentzel, Nichushkin(RW)
    RW} Miller(C), Rust, Schmaltz(C)
    D} Josi, Fox, Dobson, Carlson
    G} Nedeljkovic, Daccord, Grubauer, Pickard
    IR} Demko
    IR+} Neighbours




    via GIPHY


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    Quote Originally Posted by Two On One View Post
    I'm in a similar situation to you, holding both Boston goalies.
    I'm trending towards strategy "A"... But since you count games played, I think you're best off going with plan "B". I'd play Rask and stream favorable match-ups with Niemi and Bob. You'll probably be in good shape...
    We have Weekly starts, so can't just stream daily starts. CLB is doing well today at least.
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    Quote Originally Posted by cdubb View Post
    We have Weekly starts, so can't just stream daily starts. CLB is doing well today at least.
    No daily starts? Hmmm. I think I'd still roll with plan "B". Since you've already identified who CLB and SJ will be playing each week, you'll get a decent idea if their opponents that week will put up much of a fight, or not.
    Yahoo! H2H, 1 year, 12 teams, Daily starts
    G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HITS, W, GAA, SV%, SO
    2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2G, 5BN, IR, 3IR+
    Used 41/45 moves
    ---------------------
    C} Matthews, Barkov, Hertl
    LW} B.Tkachuk(C), Guentzel, Nichushkin(RW)
    RW} Miller(C), Rust, Schmaltz(C)
    D} Josi, Fox, Dobson, Carlson
    G} Nedeljkovic, Daccord, Grubauer, Pickard
    IR} Demko
    IR+} Neighbours




    via GIPHY


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    Default Niemi, Rask or Bob

    Quote Originally Posted by cdubb View Post
    Semifinals
    CLB - @NAS, @STL (B2B), MIN, SJ, STL, @MIN (B2B)
    BOS - OTT, NJ, @MTL, CAR, @NJ, NYI (B2B), CAR
    SJ - VAN, MIN, CGY, DAL, @CBJ, @DET, @DAL

    CLB has a couple B2B's, and playing STL and MIN twice.

    BOS has decent schedule I think.

    SJ just has VAN and DET to worry about?
    With this past week, picking my 2 weekly starters even more confusing. Ruled out using Khudobin and Rask as a combo.

    Niemi b2b shutouts, likely start him now.

    Rask had one blowout, hasn't wonrecently (lost 4/5 but only let in more than 2 goals once), but has been my main guy all year.

    Bobrovsky got a shutout, then another blowout game, but has been hot the past month.

    Any advice?
    Last edited by cdubb; March 30, 2013 at 8:06 PM.
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    Rask and Niemi - dance with the one who brung you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shoeless View Post
    Rask and Niemi - dance with the one who brung you.
    Second this... in terms of the selections at least... don't necessarily agree with the dancing with who brought you theory

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    Quote Originally Posted by blayze View Post
    Second this... in terms of the selections at least... don't necessarily agree with the dancing with who brought you theory
    Simply a matter of probability don't you think - the probability that numbers should stay relatively consistent throughout.

    I think the idea of going with a handcuff has merit only if one is confident that their skater cats are going to be easily handled - split the tender stats and romp home. But the handcuff could open the door for demise if your skaters go soft for a couple of weeks - you then want the maximum opportunity to pull home all the goalie cats.

    Niemi will be fine.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shoeless View Post
    Simply a matter of probability don't you think - the probability that numbers should stay relatively consistent throughout.

    I think the idea of going with a handcuff has merit only if one is confident that their skater cats are going to be easily handled - split the tender stats and romp home. But the handcuff could open the door for demise if your skaters go soft for a couple of weeks - you then want the maximum opportunity to pull home all the goalie cats.

    Niemi will be fine.
    I agree, the long-term probabilities should hold up the majority of the time. I wasn't advocating the handcuff here.

    Having said that, I wouldn't hesitate to deviate from my year-long starter and roll with a hot hand (or leave the dance with a hotter woman) if the circumstances were right

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    Thanks for the replies guys.

    Yah, initially I was leaning towards Bobrovsky over Niemi (SJ had underperformed for 6 weeks, while Bob was the top goalie past month).

    But then Niemi seems to have recovered, and Boston was struggling a bit.
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