Pricer's Picks - Week 9

[Matt Price]

Hey bud, I posted a question by realized after that I'm not aware if there are any rules - my first time posting a football question in one of these Q&A settings. Then I read that you don't typically answer survival pool type questions, so maybe my question was off-side too. If so, mind telling me what the rules are? tx

No rules. I'll discuss any question relating to football!

[Matt Price]

As my question is a bit more detailed and already have a thread on it, would you mind checking it out and let me know your thoughts please? Specifically, posts 13 and 15 give you the most relevant information from my perspective. Thanks.

http://forums.dobbersports.com/showthread.php?t=139998

WR is by far your biggest need in my opinion. I would try to package Vick and Bowe for an upgrade at WR. I think you are ok at RB for week 11 even without Lynch and CJ. Mendenhall should be healthy and have a role by week 11 and Pierre Thomas is an ok bye week fill in.

If you can trade one of the two, I would rather trade CJ than Lynch for sure. If CJ has a game this week, you should be able to flip him for someone, but you def will have to settle for less than what he is worth. Maybe someone like Alfred Morris, Doug Martin, Reggie Bush or Fred Jackson?

[Matt Price]

Keep on trading or just keep what I've got?

I'm pretty happy with my starting lineup right now, but I still feel like the team could be more complete. Right now I have stocked up on QBs since I dont own any elite ones, and I'm still in search of a good flex.

14 team league, I'm tied for 3rd at 5-3-0. One guy at 7-1-0 with a good team, and another at 6-2-0 with a semi weak team. Eight teams make the playoffs, but the guy at 10th is 4-4-0, so my playoffspot is not secure yet.

We start QB, 2xRB, 2xWR, TE, WR/RB, WR/TE, K, DEF

My squad with normal starters highlighted:
QB: Freeman, Rivers, Weeden
RB: Foster, McCoy, Vereen (flex), Tate, Pead (picked up today, relasing on friday if SJax stays)
WR: AJ Green, Nicks, Bryant, V. Brown
TE: Gronkowski, Tamme (bye week replacement)
K: Walsh DEF: Giants

People have finally realised the value of backup RBs, so there's not much left on the ww. The top names right now are Draughn, Goodson, Tolbert, Peerman. Ingram, Miller, Pierce, B Brown, Royster and Leonard are also available.

Pretty much the same for WRs and TEs with Bess, G Tate, Hizon, Hill, R Moss, JEffery, Sanders, Baldwins and Barden.

So whats my plan? Stay put and wait for week 14? Drop Weeden and pick up some handcuffs? Trade AJ Green or something for a flex worthy player and a decent WR?

I'd grab Goodson and Bryce Brown. DMC has never played a full season and Goodson would be an instant RB2 if he goes down again at some point in the next 6-8 games. Bryce Brown is running hard and is the clear handcuff to McCoy. Same goes for Royster if Alf were to get hurt.

I would most definitely NOT trade AJ Green unless you were blown away by an offer.

[horrorfan]

WR is by far your biggest need in my opinion. I would try to package Vick and Bowe for an upgrade at WR. I think you are ok at RB for week 11 even without Lynch and CJ. Mendenhall should be healthy and have a role by week 11 and Pierre Thomas is an ok bye week fill in.

If you can trade one of the two, I would rather trade CJ than Lynch for sure. If CJ has a game this week, you should be able to flip him for someone, but you def will have to settle for less than what he is worth. Maybe someone like Alfred Morris, Doug Martin, Reggie Bush or Fred Jackson?

Thanks. The uncertainty I have with that first suggestion is that Vick is on thin ice and Bowe has been average this season so I'm not sure I could get an upgrade using them. With that suggestion though, are you suggesting I use Shaub as my starter?

Yeah I have been thinking about it and listed those players, so it could depend on the manager's situation as mentioned on that thread. What I could do is put my best players on the block and see if any offers come in.

[His Dudeness]

Great team you have there. As good as Heath Miller has been, I don't think you need to carry 2 tight ends now that Graham appears to be healthy and is past his bye week. Maybe you can package Miller with another player for an upgrade to your flex spot. I do like Torrey Smith, but if he has a great game this week then you could use that momentum to cash him and Miller in for another running back.

As to your D and Kicker questions, I generally don't project those two positions because it's such a crapshoot week to week. Defensive scoring also varies greatly across league formats. That said, I do think it is valuable to look at the matchups for them in the fantasy playoffs. Speaking of which, I do like the 2 week playoff game format, but I really wish your league started in week 13 instead of 14. Including the NFL week 17 in fantasy football is perhaps my biggest pet peeve.

Looking at the Packers, they get:

week 14: Lions
week 15: @Bears

week 16: Titans
week 17: @Vikings

The Lions and Bears combo could a little rough, but the Titans and Vikings in the Superbowl are both above average matchups.

Giants:

week 14: Saints
week 15: @Falcons

week 16: @Ravens
week 17: Eagles

2 of the best offenses in the leagues in the first round of the playoffs and then two that can put up a lot of points in any given week for the Superbowl. I don't like it.

Cardinals:

week 14: @Seahawks
week 15: Lions

week 16: Bears
week 17: @49ers

That's a tough final stretch in both rounds of the playoffs. I'd roll with the Packers if those are your only 3 choices. More likely though you will be better off playing matchups each week. Do you have to play the same lineup during each two week period or can you play one defense in week 14 and a different one in week 15?

Let's dig a little deeper into optimal playoff matchups for team defenses/special teams.

Starting in week 17(which again if your league uses, I highly suggest convincing the league to make week 16 the superbowl week for next season) and working our way backwards, here are your best playoff matchups for defenses:

week 17:

1. 49ers (vs Cardinals)
2. Broncos (vs Chiefs)
3. Seahawks (vs Rams)
4. Texans (vs Colts)
5. Chargers (vs Raiders)

week 16:

1. Patriots (vs Jags)
2. Packers (vs Titans)
3. Dolphins (vs Bills)
4. Broncos (vs Browns)
5. Texans (vs Vikings)

week 15:

1. Dolphins (vs Jags)
2. Texans (vs Colts)
3. Seahawks (@Bills)
4. Patriots (vs 49ers)
5. Rams (vs Vikings)

week 14:

1. 49ers (vs Dolphins)
2. Seahawks (vs Cardninals)
3. Steelers (vs Chargers)
4. Browns (vs Chiefs)
5. Packers (vs Lions)

I never like keeping 2 defenses, but in this situation I would advocate holding on the the Packers if possible. It all depends what defenses are available during their week 10 bye though. If for some reason the Niners/Seahawks/Dolphins are available that week I would consider dropping the Packers outright for one of them and just rolling with the new D through the end of the season. If you end up keeping 2 for week 10, I'd drop either Young or Broyles (probably Broyles) whichever one looks less likely to have consistent value after week 9.

As for kickers, they are even more difficult. I generally just look for a kicker on a team with a high scoring offense or a dominant defense, preferably in a dome. GZ certainly qualifies. I don't think you can go wrong with either of those guys, but I give the edge to GZ due to kicking in a dome and his penchant for kicking longer (50+ yards = 5 points in most leauges) fgs. Tucker is certainly on the better offense though and may provide more scoring opportunities.

Wow thanks for all the great insight. I do think we can adjust our lineup between weeks during the playoffs. Looks like the Giants D/ST isn't worth picking up. None of the 3 D/ST you've listed are currently available for week 10 but I will re-assess during next week's waivers to pick up a D/ST. There are very few trades in our league (the first one happened today and the deadline is Nov 21) - I'll try to combo Heath Miller for an upgrade at RB but not sure I'll be able to. If not, I'm inclined to hang onto him as a backup plan to Graham (just in case) and also he's sometimes a decent Flex option, no? I didn't get a say in the league settings but will definitely raise the week 17 thing for next year.

[ynotzz]

I'd grab Goodson and Bryce Brown. DMC has never played a full season and Goodson would be an instant RB2 if he goes down again at some point in the next 6-8 games. Bryce Brown is running hard and is the clear handcuff to McCoy. Same goes for Royster if Alf were to get hurt.

I would most definitely NOT trade AJ Green unless you were blown away by an offer.

But who do I drop?

[Brosive]

My current team:
10 Team Yahoo H2H keeper league (keep 6) yearr 2

starters in bold:

QB: RG3, Newton
WR: J. Nelson, Colston, Nicks, Maclin, T. Young
RB: Fred Jax, Dwyer, MJD, Ballard
TE: Daniels, Rudolph
K: Bryant
D: Minny

As you can see I'm hurting big time at the RB position.
Here's my dilemma, I really like RG3 as my keeper QB, but i also know that I need to upgrade my RBs. Newton is not going to get me anything good on the trade market right now. But i think i do have an option to trade RG3 for Adrian Peterson. There will probably be some little pieces added from both teams, but that would be the base of the trade. Is AP worth it, or should i hold onto RG3 and just see what i can get for Newton (probably just a pick upgrade in next yrs draft). Would you be confident in having Newton as a starter in a keeper league?

Here's the AP owners team: (please think of a good trade using RG3 and AP for me as well if you can)
I know he likes Nicks and Jordy Nelson too, he wants to upgrade his WRs
QB: Dalton, Romo
WR: Cruz, Marshall, Moss, Jennings, Hixon
RB: Rice, Peterson, Matthews, Mendenhall
TE: Witten
K: Walsh
D: Houston

Thanks in advance for any advice

[His Dudeness]

Man, your response to my first question was so helpful I thought I'd try my luck again. QB Dalton just got waived in my league and is available for pick up Saturday. I've been rolling with just the one QB (Brees) on the theory that if he goes down, I'm done. But partly it's also due to the fact that the QBs available suck. At positional rank 14, Dalton is way ahead of the next available QB (Weeden positional rank 23rd). He was likely waived b/c he's on a bye week. Should I pick him up as back up for Brees? Or stay with my theory. If I pick him up, I'd probably waive Broyles or maybe Hunter (he's only really valuable if Gore gets injured).

[Matt Price]

But who do I drop?

Tamme after this week (btw, I'd rather have Virgil Green for this week if I'm playing a Denver TE)

Pead is expendable, as is Rivers or Weeden. I'd keep Rivers, but I can see an argument for Weeden.

[Matt Price]

My current team:
10 Team Yahoo H2H keeper league (keep 6) yearr 2

starters in bold:

QB: RG3, Newton
WR: J. Nelson, Colston, Nicks, Maclin, T. Young
RB: Fred Jax, Dwyer, MJD, Ballard
TE: Daniels, Rudolph
K: Bryant
D: Minny

As you can see I'm hurting big time at the RB position.
Here's my dilemma, I really like RG3 as my keeper QB, but i also know that I need to upgrade my RBs. Newton is not going to get me anything good on the trade market right now. But i think i do have an option to trade RG3 for Adrian Peterson. There will probably be some little pieces added from both teams, but that would be the base of the trade. Is AP worth it, or should i hold onto RG3 and just see what i can get for Newton (probably just a pick upgrade in next yrs draft). Would you be confident in having Newton as a starter in a keeper league?

Here's the AP owners team: (please think of a good trade using RG3 and AP for me as well if you can)
I know he likes Nicks and Jordy Nelson too, he wants to upgrade his WRs
QB: Dalton, Romo
WR: Cruz, Marshall, Moss, Jennings, Hixon
RB: Rice, Peterson, Matthews, Mendenhall
TE: Witten
K: Walsh
D: Houston

Thanks in advance for any advice

In a running back starved league, I would definitely be looking to trade for Adrian Peterson. I'm fine with trading RG3, but I'd ask for either Dalton or Romo back in return as well. You can perhaps throw in Young or Rudolph if it helps.

If he likes Nicks, I would consider throwing out an offer involving him. I am selling Nicks wherever I can. I love the talent but hate the situation. He just cannot stay healthy. The fact that they just gave Cruz an extension speaks volumes to me. Maybe you can trade Newton and Nicks for Peterson instead? If not wait a week because Cam should have a great game this week against the Redskins and his fantasy value will be higher.

Honestly though, I have no problem with having Cam as my longterm starter. I still believe the talent is there and that it will come back to him. If I can get Peterson for RG3 I do it all day. Wait until after this week though if you can as the Vikings have a very tough matchup in Seattle this week.

[Matt Price]

Man, your response to my first question was so helpful I thought I'd try my luck again. QB Dalton just got waived in my league and is available for pick up Saturday. I've been rolling with just the one QB (Brees) on the theory that if he goes down, I'm done. But partly it's also due to the fact that the QBs available suck. At positional rank 14, Dalton is way ahead of the next available QB (Weeden positional rank 23rd). He was likely waived b/c he's on a bye week. Should I pick him up as back up for Brees? Or stay with my theory. If I pick him up, I'd probably waive Broyles or maybe Hunter (he's only really valuable if Gore gets injured).

Brees isn't going to get hurt and you are not going to ever start Dalton over him. I keep Hunter 100% of the time. He is already an every week flex option and if Gore gets banged up as he tends to do late in the season, Hunter is an instant RB2 with RB1 upside. I'm much less attached to Broyles if you really see the need to carry a backup behind Brees.

[His Dudeness]

Brees isn't going to get hurt and you are not going to ever start Dalton over him. I keep Hunter 100% of the time. He is already an every week flex option and if Gore gets banged up as he tends to do late in the season, Hunter is an instant RB2 with RB1 upside. I'm much less attached to Broyles if you really see the need to carry a backup behind Brees.

Thanks again - I'll just stick with Brees for now and think about my options for D/ST during Packers' week 10 bye

[ynotzz]

Tamme after this week (btw, I'd rather have Virgil Green for this week if I'm playing a Denver TE)

Pead is expendable, as is Rivers or Weeden. I'd keep Rivers, but I can see an argument for Weeden.

Thanks! Had already dropped Tamme for Dwayne Allen, Pead for Danario Alexander (started him last night) and Weeden for Mike Goodson.

Will probably drop Alexander again on wednesday to pick up another RB. Nicks and the Giants defence are my only players with a BYE coming up later, so that gives me a couple of weeks to see what happens with V. Brown and my handcuffs.

[egstud19]

Cutler or Wilson this well? Also Hayward bey or Blackman this week?

[Matt Price]

Cutler or Wilson this well? Also Hayward bey or Blackman this week?

Cutler and DHB, but not thrilled with starting either despite both having good matchups.