2012/13 DobberHockey Entry Smythe Division League Chat

[Pengwin7]

A general look back at the draft & season for:
From Russia with 'ov

From Russia with 'ov (Pengwin7's Team)

1. (4) Evgeni Malkin (Pit - C,RW)
2. (27) Ilya Bryzgalov (Phi - G)
3. (34) Zach Parise (Min - LW)
4. (57) Semyon Varlamov (Col - G)
5. (64) Marian Gaborik (NYR - RW)
6. (87) Mike Green (Was - D)
7. (94) Mark Streit (NYI - D)
8. (117) Alexander Semin (Car - LW,RW)
9. (124) David Clarkson (NJ - RW)
10. (147) Olli Jokinen (Wpg - C)
11. (154) Vincent Lecavalier (TB - C)
12. (177) Kimmo Timonen (Phi - D)
13. (184) Derek Dorsett (Cls - RW)
14. (207) Andrei Markov (Mon - D)
15. (214) Matt Martin (NYI - LW)
16. (237) Stephane Robidas (Dal - D)
17. (244) Brayden Schenn (Phi - C)
18. (267) Kyle Quincey (Det - D)
19. (274) Mikael Samuelsson (Det - RW)
20. (297) Andrej Meszaros (Phi - D)
21. (304) Colin Greening (Ott - C)
22. (327) Steve Sullivan (Pho - LW)
23. (334) Vinny Prospal (Cls - C,LW)
24. (357) Stu Bickel (NYR - D)
25. (364) Kyle Clifford (LA - LW)

What I liked about my draft:
The #4 position was great. I knew I'd get one of Crosby (1), Stamkos (3), Malkin (4), or Ovechkin (6). I was shocked when Lundqvist went #2 and also a bit shocked to see Giroux taken ahead of Ovechkin. On the return I was hoping to nab my two favourite goalies for this year: Bryz & Miller. I was thrilled to get Bryz but Miller went in the 6 picks before it got back to me. For my 3rd rounder, I settled on Parise (instead of taking the next of the best goalies: Halak, Howard, Price, Kipper). Niemi & Jamie Benn were two players I wanted that went just before my Varlamov pick. I had a debate between Varlamov vs. Pavelec (who went after Varly), we'll see how that works out. My absolute favourite thing about my draft if my position count (by eligibility): 6C/6LW/6RW/8D. This gives me a +2 at each position and I should be able to play weekly schedules very nicely. Overall, I like my team, I'd probably give it a B+.

Steals:
Timonen, Robidas, B.Schenn, and Meszaros are guys I'm very happy I got. PHI needs to fill PP slots, Timonen should be a lock for PP-time and possibly even Meszaros. Brayden Schenn is a big hitter who could really emerge into a bigger role, especially with his brother in town. With Souray's departure, it's possible that Robidas steps back into the DAL PP picture, which could be fantastic.

Missed out on:
I forgot about Martin Havlat & Derek Roy. Two value players that were WAY down the Yahoo! board. I really should have nabbed these guys. Havlat went two picks before Dorsett. And D.Roy was on the board when I took Dorsett. Possibly a big mistake.

Expectations:
As long as Bryz & Varly get 75% or more of their team's starts (& don't get injured), I really think I should finish top 5. Pretty happy overall.

WHERE I LOST:
I have long said that fantasy hockey pools are won at the TOP of your draft.
That proved no different here.
Malkin, Bryz, and Varly were my 1st, 2nd, and 4th round draft picks.
Their disappointing performance cost me the pool.

My team finished 3rd overall (98pts) and 9pts back of the winner (107pts).
I was really happy with all of my decisions and strategy.
I can only chalk my loss up to bad luck and a few (unforeseen) bad seasons.

*Chump #1: Evgeni Malkin is probably the main reason I lost this pool.
Q: Should I have drafted him at #4?
A: Yes.
By "average stats", Malkin finished ranked as the #3 player (behind only Crosby and Ovechkin). The problem, though, was that Malkin missed 17 games... and he did so in the worst possible way. The DE leagues are "weekly locks" at midnight Thursday night. So - for 5 of 14 weeks in the shortened season, I got partial or NO stats from Malkin.

-Week 8: On Saturday March 9th, Malkin went down at the end of the game against TOR. PIT had three more games that week... and I was locked in to 0 stats for three games.

-Week 9: I was forced to bench Malkin while injured, my replacement player probably put up about 1/3rd of Malkin's stats.

-Week 10: I was forced to bench Malkin this week... though he came back and put up 1G, +2, 4 SOG in his end of week game.

-Week 12: Although Malkin suggested he'd be back... he misses the entire week's worth of games.

- Week 13: With Malkin still rostered, he misses 2/4 games during the week.

All said with Malkin, injuries & suggested returns cost me 8 games that he didn't play while rostered. 0 stats. And the replacement players that I filled in for him while I knew he was out probably only replaced 2 of his 6 games where he wasn't rostered. That's 12 games without Malkin. Probably 7G, 7A, 4 PPP, 30 SOG. In the standings, that would've been +3pts (G), +2pts (A), +1pt (PPP), +2pts (SOG). That's 8pts... and if I had jumped the leader in one of those categories - a tie for first. So - a healthy Malkin would have won me the pool. Ah... injuries.

*Chump #2: Ilya Bryzgalov & Chump #3: Semyon Varlamov didn't help either. Both played in Russia and both were actually reasonable through the first 5-6 weeks of the season. In early March, these two had me sitting with 10pts in Wins and 6pts in GAA. March was a brutal month for both - their teams kept losing, their stats were miserable, and I slid to 5pts in Wins and 1pt (LAST) in GAA. In April I made a couple decent late pick-ups in Joey McDonald and Steve Mason to salvage a 7pt total in Wins. But the LAST in GAA really hurt bad. I drafted Bryzgalov with the 27th overall pick in the Smythe. Considering Bryz went 12th (Patrick), 20th (Norris), 23rd (Adams)... I thought I got good value. In the 4th round, I nabbed Varly with the 57th overall pick. Immediately after the draft, I debated whether Ondrej Pavelec (58th overall pick) might have been the better pick. Well, Pavelec (2.80 GAA, .905 SV%) wouldn't have helped the peripherals... but Pavelec's 21 wins vs. Varly's 11 wins would have made a difference of finishing 9th (7pts) vs. finishing 2nd (14pts). And those points would have also given me a shot at the championship.

I don't think anybody saw those disappointments in Bryz/Varly coming.
One of my most respected fantasy challengers, horrorfan, drafted Bryz & Varly in the RHRS and finished 10th/15.
This is a guy (horrorfan) that finishes top 3 in just about every league he plays. THAT is how badly Bryz & Varly were this year.

A trifecta of numbers on these two bums:
2011-2012 actual stats: Ilya Bryzgalov - 2.48 GAA, .909 SV%
2012-2013 projections*: Ilya Bryzgalov - 2.74 GAA, .909 SV%
2012-2013 actual stats: Ilya Bryzgalov - 2.79 GAA, .900 SV%

2011-2012 actual stats: Semyon Varlamov - 2.59 GAA, .913 SV%
2012-2013 projections*: Semyon Varlamov - 2.43 GAA, .919 SV%
2012-2013 actual stats: Semyon Varlamov - 3.02 GAA, .903 SV%

*Projections are from ESPN fantasy hockey.

POSITIVES to take away from my draft:
1) My management/strategy/planning skills were among the best in the league. My skaters finished with 873 GP... +32 more than the 2nd best team (841, 834, 833, 831...). My goalies, as bad as they were, still finished with 79 starts, tied for first in the league. Getting in as many games as possible, in a no GP max league, is critical. I led the league in "moves" with 39. Usually, I was maximizing GP/week.

2) I focus on dependable categories - those that I call "high quantity categories". I'm a firm believer that somebody MUST take advantage of drafting dependable stats. High-count stats are dependable. Counting down from the highest count stats: SV: 2026 (best: 15/15pts), SOG: 1889pts (3rd best: 13/15pts. Leader had 1900), HIT: 1166 (2nd best: 14/15pts. Leader has 1191), PIM: 648 (best: 15/15pts).

3) My mid-late round drafting was very good. B+. I doubted taking Matt Martin & Derek Dorsett as high as I did... but they pushed me out to such great totals in HITS/PIM, that I was able to go full-bore SOG towards the end of the season. I passed the league champ (Savages) in SOG and almost chased down the top two (and... had Malkin not been injured, would have finished 1st). Kimmo Timonen ended up as a top 10 defenseman and Semin & Clarkson were both top 50 fantasy players.

4) Catching hot players. Steve Sullivan and Tomas Kopecky were both very blah players for the season, but the HAT TRICK that each one registered was while on my active roster. I grabbed them while their ice-time was peaking and dumped them as soon as I saw even the slightest downtick. I also rode Lauri Korpikoski, Vinny Prospal, Brayden Schenn, Matt Irwin, and TJ Galiardi while they were hot. This micromanagement of players is probably the reason I finished as high as I did.

REGRETS:
Not many to be honest.
i) I wish I had drafted Pavelec over Varlamov.
ii) I really should've dumped Olli Jokinen sooner.
iii) Late in the season, I dropped a few good players too "obviously" - Stephane Robidas and Mark Letestu. The eventual champ (Savages) snagged both and rode them down the stretch.

OVERALL SELF-GRADE:
A-.
It was mostly bad luck (Malkin injury, poor Bryz/Varly season, Green injury) that cost me a shot here.
A top 3 finish, dictated by injuries & bad luck, is still worthy of a grade in the upper echelon.
Looking forward to doing again in some future year.


NEXT UP:
A round-by-round analysis of the draft.

[Pengwin7]

When I was in high school... I really hated "history" class.
Blah, blah, blah... "understanding history helps us understand the future" they said.

Well... if they had just taught that concept using fantasy hockey - I'd be a believer.

Revisiting a draft (the past) and the impact it on the final standings (which was, then, the future) is a great way to gain skill at drafting in future seasons.

Without further adieu, a round-by-round look at the Smythe:

ROUND 1:
1. Sidney Crosby
2. Henrik Lundqvist
3. Steven Stamkos
4. Evgeni Malkin
5. Claude Giroux
6. Alex Ovechkin
7. Pekka Rinne
8. Jonathan Quick
9. Patrick Sharp
10. Corey Perry
11. Tuukka Rask
12. Mike Smith
13. James Neal
14. Nicklas Backstrom
15. John Tavares

BEST PICK: Alexander Ovechkin (Savages). The 6th overall pick, Ovechkin finished as the #1 fantasy player - and Savages won the pool. That's how key a first round pick is.

RUNNER-UP: John Tavares (Blades of Steel). B.O.S. was one of five teams to hold a lead at some point during the season. Tavares finished as the #20 overall player in fantasy hockey... the best of any player selected from pick #7 to #15.

WORST PICK(s): Patrick Sharp (9th) & Mike Smith (12th). I didn't really understand either of these picks when John Tavares was available. Sharp was drafted 19th (Patrick), 44th (Norris), and 58th (Adams). Mike Smith was drafted between 20-25 in those three leagues.

UNLUCKY: Crosby (PopCultureReference) & Evgeni Malkin (From Russia with 'ov). Malkin finished as the #3 fantasy player by "average stats"... but injuries made his "full stats" rank to be only the 53rd best fantasy player. Crosby got hit in the face and went down for the remainder of the season.

NOTES: The top 8 players selected were the same in all four Entry leagues: Lundqvist (ADP: 2.5), Malkin (2.8), Stamkos (3.3), Crosby (4.0), Ovechkin (4.5), Giroux (6.0), Quick (6.5), Rinne (6.5). The toughest spot to draft in leagues this year was probably #9... and #10. I think Tavares, Neal, and Rask should have been those picks. Anybody that grabbed those players probably did OK... though Neal was impacted by the Malkin injuries.

[Pengwin7]

ROUND 2:
16. Tyler Seguin
17. Cam Ward
18. David Backes
19. Erik Karlsson
20. Dustin Byfuglien
21. Scott Hartnell
22. Gabriel Landeskog
23. Zdeno Chara
24. Daniel Sedin
25. Marc-Andre Fleury
26. Ilya Kovalchuk
27. Ilya Bryzgalov
28. Cory Schneider
29. Kris Letang
30. Ryan Miller

BEST PICK: Marc-Andre Fleury (Savages). Two rounds in a row, best pick by the Savages. Fleury was excellent. Despite the pre-season scare that Vokoun may steal starts, Fleury was still excellent per game with low GAA and good wins/start.

RUNNER-UP: Cory Schneider (Fantomas). To be honest, there really wasn't another great pick in this round. But Schneider did win the VAN goaltending job and put up great GAA (2.11).

WORST PICK: Gabriel Landeskog. A terrific real NHL player, but way too early to take a player that clearly overperformed in his rookie season.

UNLUCKY: Erik Karlsson (Bearflaggers). No injury crushed early season hopes like Karlsson. Especially hard to lose a guy like Karlsson because an offensive-defenseman's stats just can not be replace in any way using the FA list.

NOTES: There was a very surprising run on D in the Smythe. It kicked off a run of defensemen that left some very good forwards on the board into round 4,5,6.

[Pengwin7]

ROUND 3:
31. Roberto Luongo
32. Kari Lehtonen
33. Milan Lucic
34. Zach Parise
35. Jaroslav Halak
36. Shea Weber
37. Henrik Sedin
38. Eric Staal
39. Alex Pietrangelo
40. Jimmy Howard
41. Rick Nash
42. Dustin Brown
43. Dion Phaneuf
44. Drew Doughty
45. Carey Price

BEST PICK: Eric Staal (Rougie). E.Staal finished as the 11th best player in fantasy hockey. He corrected his dismal +/- on a fantastic line with Alex Semin & Jiri Tlusty.

RUNNER-UP: Rick Nash (Axeholes). Nash finished as the 15th BPFH. Again, a NYR-influenced +/- with great SOG & goalscoring helped him well.

WORST PICK: Alex Pietrangelo. For a player that doesn't PIM or HIT, this wasn't a great pick. AP is a great real-world NHL player, but it doesn't translate to fantasy value.

UNLUCKY: Jaroslav Halak (Goatlenders). A tough start and ill-timed injuries and he lost the job to other serviceable players. Losing a goalie is a SAVES/WINS killer... and when there's only 3 goalie cats, it's very tough to fix.

NOTES: Another 4D went in this round. Savages probably caught the last top tier dependable D (Weber). Weber had a slow-start, but a great 2nd half.

[Pengwin7]

ROUND 4:
46. Phil Kessel
47. Joe Pavelski
48. PK Subban
49. Miikka Kiprusoff
50. Jonas Hiller
51. Anze Kopitar
52. Antti Niemi
53. Craig Anderson
54. Anders Lindback
55. Jamie Benn
56. Niklas Backstrom
57. Semyon Varlamov
58. Ondrej Pavelec
59. Taylor Hall
60. Jonathan Toews

BEST PICK: PK Subban (Scurvy). Subban finished as Yahoo!s 4th highest fantasy hockey player. And that is a rank that doesn't even include HITS - which PK provides as well. The next highest D this year was Keith Yandle at 60th! Of all the early drafted D in this league, Subban was the only justifiable reach.

RUNNER-UP: Antti Niemi (Prognosis Negative). Niemi finished as the 4th best fantasy goalie, per Yahoo!. I firmly believe, though, in a league that counts only WINS, GAA, and SV that Niemi was more valuable than Bob, Rask, and Howard - since Niemi topped those players in Wins and SV.

WORST PICK: Semyon Varlamov. The Avs were just brutal this year. Landeskog couldnt' rally a team that was missing O'Reilly and has, arguably, the worst defense in the NHL. A goalie's stats are highly impacted by his defense. This was a bad pick.

UNLUCKY: Craig Anderson (Rougie). By "average stats" (per game), Anderson was the 2nd best goalie - right there with Schneider. Had he not got injured, Anderson could have been the best fantasy goalie.

NOTES: There was really a TON of value in Round 4. Jon Toews (8th), Kessel (10th), and Hall (13th) all finished in the top 15 of fantasy hockey players.

[Pengwin7]

ROUND 5:
61. Bobby Ryan
62. Ryan Getzlaf
63. Jordan Eberle
64. Marian Gaborik
65. Jason Spezza
66. Corey Crawford
67. Martin St.Louis
68. Ryan Callahan
69. Marian Hossa
70. Braden Holtby
71. Dan Boyle
72. Pavel Datsyuk
73. Devan Dubnyk
74. Henrik Zetterberg
75. Max Pacioretty

BEST PICK: Ryan Getzlaf (Nickel City). The most disappointed I was during the draft was when Nickel City snagged Getzlaf two picks before me (I took Gaborik). Getzlaf finished 15th overall fantasy player... without his 89 HITS even factored in.

RUNNER-UP: Corey Crawford (Savages). Savages took Jamie Benn in round 4, letting N.Backstrom, Varlamov, and Pavelec pass by - then taking Crawford in Round 5. Though many doubted Crawford's ability, his value paired with Fleury made for the top goaltending tandem in both W & GAA for Savages. At the time, though, this was considered a very risky pick with Crawford going as late as 87th in the Patrick and 116th in the Norris.

WORST PICK: Bobby Ryan. Getzlaf, St.Louis, Datsyuk, and Zetterberg all on the board. Ryan hadn't gotten top PP time the previous year and with Selanne back and Souray added to the PP, no reason to think things would be any different.

UNLUCKY: Jason Spezza (Goatlenders). That's two unlucky picks in his first 5 rounds. Every year somebody gets the bad hand... this year, it was the Goatlenders.

NOTES: Round 5 was also chock-full of value. Zetterberg (6th), St.Louis (14th), and Datsyuk (16th) were all top 20 fantasy hockey players. All guys that had been up there in the past. Note that Yahoo!s "rank" doesn't include HITS though... which all are very low on - hence the Getzlaf pick.


More round-by-round analysis, later today. (gotta do some work)

[Savages]

Final Standings in the Smythe:

(1) 107.0pts: Savages
(2) 104.0pts: Rougie
(3) 98.0pts: From Russia with 'ov
(4) 97.0pts: Blades of Steel
(5) 91.0pts: Nickel City
(6) 87.5pts: AxeHoles
(7) 87.0pts: SuluShattenkirks Face
(8) 83.5pts: Prognosis Negative
(9) 78.0pts: Bearflaggers
(10) 76.5pts: Scurvy
(11) 69.5pts: PopCultureReference
(12) 66.0pts: Hawkdog7mm
(13) 65.5pts: Goatlenders
(14) 60.0pts: Fantomas
(15) 29.5pts: That Bird Team


Congrats to Savages!
He had the top overall fantasy player (Ovechkin, 6th overall), top goaltenders (Fleury/Crawford/Vokoun, 1st in Wins, 1st in GAA), one of the top sleeper pick (Voracek, 126th overall - Yahoo Final Rank: 31st), and possibly the best Free Agent grab (Tlusty - Yahoo Final Rank: 48th).

Also gotta hand it to Rougie.
I thought the championship was decided a week or two ago and Rougie pulled to within 1.5pts after Saturday's games.

+/- may have been the decider.
Savages finished with 3pts... barely. -28 vs. -29 (2nd last).
Rougie finished with 5.5pts... barely. *+5, +4 vs +4

It was an exciting finish.


As strategy goes, I poured more effort into this league than any other this year.
Not really disappointed to finish 3rd... had some bad luck (Malkin & Green injuries) and two goalies (Bryz & Varly) that nobody (incl. horrorfan & bondon) thought would be as bad as they were.

Almost all of the managers in this league were very active right to the end.
A fine, fine group of gentlemen.

Best of luck to Savages (Nick) as he joins the big boys in the Pro Divisions next year!


Tomorrow, I'll probably write up a summary of the league.
Complete with: Round-by-Round Draft Analysis, the Year in Transactions, and determine where teams won & lost the season.

Thanks guys! It was fun. I am looking forward to the pros!!! Any of you guys could have won it! The top 5 were close!

[Savages]

Looking back what was I thinking taking Crawford? But I wanted 2 starters cause I knew it would be tough to trade for a goalie!

[horrorfan]

Great rundown so far, Pengwin.

[Pengwin7]

ROUND 6:
76. Alexander Edler
77. Steve Ott
78. Brian Elliott
79. Kevin Shattenkirk
80. Evander Kane
81. Logan Couture
82. Wayne Simmonds
83. Patrick Kane
84. Brad Marchand
85. Jarome Iginla
86. Patrick Marleau
87. Mike Green
88. Brad Richards
89. Brian Campbell
90. Mark Giordano

BEST PICK: Patrick Kane (Rougie) finished as the 7th best player in fantasy hockey. It's simply one of those picks where we should all be thinking "How do we let Patrick Kane drop to the 83rd drafted player!". Great pick.

RUNNER-UP: Kane you believe it! Evander Kane (AxeHoles) finished as the 34th best player by Yahoo! rank... but that rank does not include HITS, where E.Kane brought it with 147 hits. My guess is that Evander would be a top 15 player with hits included - a postulate I'll look into later today.

WORST PICK: Kevin Shattenkirk. Like AP, Shatty finished outside of the top 25 defenseman at Yahoo rank #179.

UNLUCKY: Mike Green (From Russia with 'ov). For all the HATE on Green's fantasy value, he actually finished as the 4th best fantasy defenseman by "average stats" behind only Subban, Karlsson, and Letang. By "average stats", he actually finished ahead of Buff & Weber. Injuries though.

NOTES: It was another round of solid value players.

[Pengwin7]

ROUND 7:
91. Jordan Staal
92. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
93. Jeff Skinner
94. Mark Streit
95. Joe Thornton
96. Mikko Koivu
97. Ryane Clowe
98. Mike Richards
99. Matt Duchene
100. Thomas Vanek
101. Shane Doan
102. Sergei Bobrovsky
103. Erik Cole
104. Joffrey Lupul
105. Martin Brodeur

BEST PICK: Let's be honest... NOBODY saw Sergei Bobrovsky (Bearflaggers) finishing as the top overall goalie in Yahoo! ranking! And I debate listing this as "best pick"... because I think there was just a lot of "good luck" with this one. That said - by value - it was indeed the best pick. The downside here though, was that Bob had logged about 3-4 incredible weeks before he actually was promoted to the 'flaggers line-up. Even more incredibly, Bob at #102 in the Smythe was BY FAR the highest in any division. Bob was drafted 152nd in the Adams, 255 in the Patrick and 262 in the Norris!!! Ho-ly cow.

RUNNER-UP: Thomas Vanek (SuluShattenkirksFace). Vanek was the 13th best fantasy player by "average stats". He was on fire to start the season - which was incredible because while Vanek was hot, Sulu's team was not. And once Vanek cooled off, Sulu's team started rising. Enigma, yes.

WORST PICK: Erik Cole was just awful this year. I made Cole my "lock" to be drastically worse than last year's stats. He was worse.

UNLUCKY: Martin Brodeur (Blades of Steel). Between Marty's own injury and then coming back to play with a line-up sans Kovalchuk... it was just bad timing. He was the best steal of the draft through the first month of the season when B.O.S. was dominating the goalie categories.

NOTES: The goalie well seemed dry going into this round - but surprisingly these late snags paid off for these teams.

[Pengwin7]

ROUND 8:
106. Jeff Carter
107. Brent Burns
108. Blake Wheeler
109. Alexandre Burrows
110. Johan Franzen
111. Loui Eriksson
112. Keith Yandle
113. Dany Heatley
114. Nail Yakupov
115. Ryan Suter
116. Niklas Kronwall
117. Alexander Semin
118. Oliver Ekman-Larsson
119. Chris Kunitz
120. Duncan Keith

BEST PICK: Chris Kunitz (Nickel City). Oh to be a Pittsburgh Winger. Kunitz - who I've written as a great pick about in the Market Buzz publication - was the 3rd best fantasy player per Yahoo! He also HITS, which makes his production this year... probably the PICK-OF-THE-YEAR.

RUNNER-UP: Alexander Semin (From Russia with 'ov). I remember actually debating between Semin & Kunitz and deciding I needed to go with scoring because I always draft too much grit. Semin finished as the 18th best fantasy skater.

WORST PICK: Nail Yakupov. Rookies are big risks. And a guy like Yakupov was destined to have his bumps. That said, I did trade for him late in the season in exchange for Brayden Schenn. He rewarded me with a hat trick in EDM's season finale.

UNLUCKY: none. I know Heatley went down... but don't we all expect that. Most of the players performed around their drafted position.

NOTES: This seemed to be the round where things started slowing down - and the round where people start picking a little more positionally.

[Pengwin7]

ROUND 9:
121. Brent Seabrook
122. Jason Pominville
123. Matt Moulson
124. David Clarkson
125. TJ Oshie
126. Jakub Voracek
127. Kevin Bieksa
128. Jack Johnson
129. Patrice Bergeron
130. Danny Briere
131. James Wisniewski
132. Michael Del Zotto
133. Dennis Wideman
134. Stephen Weiss
135. Nathan Horton

BEST PICK: Jakub Voracek (Savages). I saw Voracek dropped in a few leagues this year after a disappointing start where B.Schenn was Giroux's linemate. After those few weeks, Voracek found his way onto Giroux's line finishing with 46pts and as the 31st rated player. Credit to Savages for sticking with him.

RUNNER-UP: David Clarkson (From Russia with 'ov). Clarkson was red-hot to start the season. He was a top 10 fantasy player through the first month or two of the season. He cooled down but still finished 49th overall.

WORST PICK: Danny Briere. Just a bad, bad year for a declining player.

UNLUCKY: Stephen Weiss (That Bird Team). Missed the whole season.

NOTES: The 9th round seemed to be the last round where a player with great upside could be found. I would think that if you just put together the first 9 rounds of players for each team, you'd be very close to the final standings using just those statistics.

[Pengwin7]

ROUND 10:
136. Dmitry Kulikov
137. Evgeni Nabokov
138. James van Riemsdyk
139. Teemu Selanne
140. Patrick Elias
141. P.A. Parenteau
142. Andrew Ladd
143. Ryan Kesler
144. Dan Girardi
145. Ryan Malone
146. Ray Whitney
147. Olli Jokinen
148. Teddy Purcell
149. Drew Stafford
150. Josh Harding

BEST PICK: Andrew Ladd (Prognosis Negative). Ladd was steady all year, finishing as the 44th best player in fantasy hockey. A very solid pick.

RUNNER-UP: Patrick Elias (AxeHoles). Most people suggested Elias couldn't repeat his previous year, but he was eversteady finishing as the #56 BP in FH.

WORST PICK: Olli Jokinen. I thought Jokinen was going to thrive & revive as Winnipeg's #1 or #2C. I'm not sure how he stunk ( ) so badly while playing mostly on a line with Evander Kane... but he did. He finished ranked #558 among fantasy hockey players.

UNLUCKY: Ryan Kesler (Rougie) was a major tease all season finishing with 13pts in 17games. Nagging injuries did him in. I remember most of us commenting during the initial draft (late-September?) and we all suggested that Kesler could be a guy to win-or-lose this pool. It's too bad Rougie finshed 2nd... with a healthy Kesler - it may have been different.

NOTES: By the end of round 1, most teams had their essential two goalies.
With SV being a category, having two workhorse goalies is critical.
A round-by-round summary:
Round 1 (5): Lundqvist, Rinne, Quick, Rask, Smith
Round 2 (5): Ward, MA Fleury, Bryzgalov, Schneider, Miller
Round 3 (5): Luongo, Lehtonen, Halak, Howard, Price
Round 4 (8): Kipper, Hiller, Niemi, Anderson, Lindback, Backstrom, Varlamov, Pavelec
Round 5 (3): Crawford, Holtby, Dubnyk
Round 6 (1): Elliott
Round 7 (2): Bobrovsky, Brodeur
Round 8 (0):
Round 9 (0):
Round 10 (2): Nabokov, Harding

With 15 teams in the league, 30 NHL #1 goalies should have gone off the board quickly. 26 were gone by end of round 5... with all but FOUR teams having their tandem.

Teams that did NOT have their tandem by round 5 had the following "fall to them".

*Blades of Steel: Drafted Price (Round 3) and Brodeur (Round 7). B.o.S. was the one team that I thought got away with selecting a 2nd goalie late - by being able to get Brodeur. Unfortunately, even old-man-Brodeur succumbed to injuries. A front-runner in goalie stats all season... B.o.S. eventually slid in Wins & GAA and finished 4th overall.

*Prognosis Negative: Drafted Niemi (Round 4) & Bernier (Round 15). PN had to trade for a 2nd goalie (Hiller) and never seemed to be able to make up the ground he lost in SV early in the year. He finished 8th overall in the league.

*Scurvy: Drafted Dubnyk (Round 5) & Elliott (Round 6). Elliott had a rough start ceding starts to Jake Allen eventually. Scurvy finished 10th overall in the league.

*That Bird Team: Drafted Ward (Round 2), Nabokov (Round 10), and Reimer (Round 18). TBT was the one team in the league that disappeared... probably frustrated after the Ward injury. The injured Ward sat in an active goalie spot all season. TBT's last log-in was January 24th. Disappoint for the rest of the league. No surprise, TBT finished WAY last.

In summary, with 15 teams needing 30 goalies... a team just can not wait TOO LONG on goalies. This year, a few late picks actually worked out well (Crawford, Bob, Nabby)... but in a 82-game season, it's less likely that a late-goalie pick will pan out as well as they did this year.

[Pengwin7]

Interesting comparison of "projections" vs. "final standings".

At the start of the year, a fellow esteemed fantasy hockey guru, temek, sent me a final standings for the Smythe.
It had me finishing 1st at 117pts.
Pretty sweet, though I fought through Malkin/Green injuries and Bryz/Varly disappointing seasons to finish 3rd at 98pts.

The most random category in fantasy hockey is +/-.
It couldn't have gone worse for me, finishing dead last in the -60s.

The other hard-to-depend-on category in fantasy hockey is the average-based GAA.
And THAT couldn't have gone worse for me, finishing dead last in the 2.80s.

Two bad teams surrounding my goalies also killed my W total.

But other than those three cats... temek's projected category standings for me were incredibly good. Check this out:

GOALS:
Projected finish: 6th (10 roto points)
Actual finish: T-7th (8 roto points)
Difference: 2 ROTO Points (Healthy Malkin/Green = higher finish.)

ASSISTS:
Projected finish: 7th (9 roto points)
Actual finish: 5th (11 roto points)
Difference: 2 ROTO Points (I went a little more scoring-heavy when Dorsett went down & had comfy PIM lead.)

+/-:
Projected Finish: 11th (5 roto points)
Actual finish: 15th (1 roto point)
Difference: 4 ROTO Points (I just chalk this up as bad-luck... some years)

PIM:
Projected Finish: 1st (15 roto points)
Actual finish: 1st (15 roto points)
Difference: 0. Perfect.

PPP:
Projected Finish: 2nd (14 roto points)
Actual finish: T-2nd (13 roto points)
Difference: 1 ROTO Point. (Healthy Malkin/Green = 1st or 2nd in PPP)

SOG:
Projected Finish: 5th (11 roto points)
Actual finish: 3rd (13 roto points)
Difference: 2 ROTO Points. (I actually targetted SOG in mid-season with comfy PIM lead/Dorsett injury.)

HITS:
Projected Finish: 1st (15 roto points)
Actual finish: 2nd (14 roto points)
Difference: 1 ROTO Point. (Dorsett went down mid-year, or I'd have had this.)

WINS:
Projected Finish: 3rd (12 roto points)
Actual finish: 9th (7 roto points)
Difference: 5 ROTO Points. (Varly getting 11 wins in a 48 game season... blah)

GAA:
Projected Finish: 5th (11 roto points)
Actual Finish: 15th (1 roto point)
Difference: 10 ROTO Points. (Varly/Bryz just blew... so did their respective team defenses)

SV:
Projected Finish: 2nd (14 roto points)
Actual Finish: 1st (15 roto points)
Difference: 1 ROTO Point. (I finished 1st by just one save.)


In summary:
Aside from foreseeing the stinky Bryz/Varly years and the never-can-forecast injuries to Malkin/Green, the predictions were very, very good.
This is nice because it supports my theory that investing in "high quantity statistics" (PIM, SOG, HIT, SV) is a dependable way to build a contender.
Projected: 117pts.
Actual: 98pts.
The 19pt difference is essentially bad +/- (4 positions worse than projected), bad W (5 positions worse than projected) and terrible GAA (10 positions worse than projected).