Over Valued Players

[3rtpaper]

Last week I posted Best Value Players and people seemed to like the thread because it introduced some actual discussion on players and their relative values instead of "player x vs player y" which has been dominating the threads. So this week I decided to post who I view are the most over valued players.

I will go ahead and start this off by saying these players aren't "bad players" or ones that I don't want on my hockey team. The players I mention here are ones that will be drafted well before I would consider taking them.

Forwards:
Rick Nash: The most talked about player this offseason in these forums has to be Rich Nash. I've seen people regularly projecting 80 and even 90 points. That makes Nash's perceived value a 2nd round pick in a 12 team league. People credit Nash's fantasy boost to leaving CBJ and joining a much better team in the NYR and being able to play with B. Richards. Let’s look at the facts though, Nash has put up 67, 66, and 59 points the last 3 years. Nash is already 28 which I feel like if he was a consistent near point per game player he would have already proven that. The Rangers are a defensive oriented team which will limit Nash's offensive potential. Nash looks best when he has the puck, so does Brad Richards which isn't the best recipe for line success (think Nash + Carter). Nash was also the guy on the power play in CBJ he is now just one of the guys on the NYR (to be fair it should be a good power play). From a roto league stand point Nash is average at best for +/- -a lot of that can be attributed to the Jackets but B. Richards isn't a great +/- guy either.. I don't see how combining the two will suddenly make then +10 players. Overall there are just too many signs saying Nash won't improve much from a fantasy perspective now that he is a Ranger. His value isn't worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick for me.
Remember it only takes 1 GM to view Nash as having that value.

Ilya Kovalchuk - Last year Kovalchuk was fantastic, he was one of the highest point getters in the league and did a ton of damage on the power play. What has changed from last season to this season is significant. Last year I drafted Kovalchuk in the mid 3rd round and I laughed about it all season however this year his stock has been elevated to late first early/mid 2nd round I feel. Kovalchuk is coming off of back issues which are said to be alright but these kinds of injuries tend to flare up consistently (Holmstrom for example). Also Kovelchuk is the only consistent scoring threat for the Devils now that Parise is gone. He will see nothing but top defensive pairings. The Devils coaching staff is going to have to consistently get Kovalchuk offensive zone time (which I am sure is their plan) but I find it hard to imagine Kovalchuk doesn't slip a bit from last year. Keeping with the no Parise theme... there are also a lot of question marks about the Devils power play which is even more concerning to me when it comes to Kovalchuk (who had 29 of his points come on the power play. Once again I would love to have Kovalchuk on my team but his price tag is going to be a bit high for me this year.

Defense:
Defense is very difficult for me to look at over valued as a whole. If your league counts block shots the value of defensemen changes significantly, if your league counts hits yet another shift in value which everyone is well aware of I am sure. So I am going to look at this from a points only perspective.

Dion Phaneuf: Phaneuf re-established himself last year as a 40 point defenseman (the make or break level for points only defensemen). He managed to do this by being one of the best defensemen in terms of power play points (Weber, Pietrangelo, Edler.. all right with him). Yet his even strength points were significantly lower than Weber, Pietrangelo and Edler. Toronto's brought in JVR but upfront they are pretty much the same team they were last year. Any regression from Kessel or Lupul (highly likely) and Phaneuf's #'s will dip.

Kimmo Timonen: I probably sound like a broken record but Timonen did most of his damage on the powerplay last year (much like Phaneuf). The creativity and experience that the Flyers lost due to Jagr on leaving will be a larger impact than most expect for the power play. Additionally the Flyers D is decimated (the longer the lockout is the less valid this point is) which means Timonen is going to be playing the toughest minutes which will hurt his scoring even more. Being 37 playing tough minutes where he will be hit consistently is another part of the equation why I don't like Timonen for points only this year.

Goaltenders:Such a mess this year with goalies... almost any goalie could be the 4th off the board or the 15th off the board so I will just look at who i don't like this year.

Roberto Luongo: There is just so much going against Luongo this year. First off, he is likely to get traded to a team that won't win as much as the Canucks. Luongo will have to adjust to a new defensive system and communication which is difficult to do (many will point to Bryz in Philly as proof of this). The #1 concern I have for Luongo though has to be the lockout. The lockout will only exaggerate any potential communication/system problems between Luongo and his team/defense. Even more frightening is when was the last time you heard "Luongo had a great start of the season". Luongo is notoriously sub-par (or even horrible like last season) to start the year. If the season is shortened then Luongo doesn't have time to push his stats back to what we are used to seeing.

Craig Anderson: Anderson was great last year... at times. He made many poolies extremely happy with the amount of wins he delivered before getting hurt but Ottawa had everything going right for them last year. Karlsson putting up crazy points for a defenseman, Spezza not getting hurt and playing like he did several years ago, Michalek having a career year. It is going to be very difficult for Ottawa to repeat what it did last year which will take wins away from Anderson. Also Anderson is being pushed for time by Bishop who looked very strong in limited action last year. Less Ottawa wins and less playing time could really hurt Anderson this year.

Bonus - Lockout weary

Jonathan Toews - Toews was definitely a guy I wanted to get this year, he is consistently one of the better centers in the game and is usually slips in my leagues. Toews is also a slow starter which if the lockout continues will really hurt Toews actual value.

[Pengwin7]

LIKE:
I like the Kovalchuk pick & Anderson too.

I think Parise's departure will hurt Kovy's output.
And I don't think Ottawa can repeat their win outputs.

SLIGHT DISAGREE:
The Phaneuf/Timonen picks are OK, but I actually think they'll both hover around their previous years totals. I don't see Toronto as any worse offensively and Phaneuf is still D1 on the PP. Philly lost Carle, so if anything Timonen's PP time may increase. That's good for him, I think.

Luongo is a huge wildcard, and I don't think anybody knows how that will shake out. Guy is just too good to not put up numbers. And perhaps the lowered expectations on him allow him to reshine a bit.

DISAGREE
Rick Nash, though... I think this will be a good year. I would peg him for 75-80pts.
1. He's never played with a passing top-line center. Add +10 ESP there.
2. He's never played on a highly skiller PP. Add +10 PPP there.

Most top powerplays are going to generate about 30 PPP for the elite forwards.
Nash's last 5 seasons of PP numbers: 19, 14, 22, 19, 22.

Also, Nash shot JUST 9.8% last year.
If he gets his typical 300 SOG next year and shoots his typical 13%, that's 39G.

Brad Richards is probably a top 20 passing-vision guy in the league.
Rick Nash has never played with anybody even remotely close to this level of talent.
Sniper value (see Hull, Brett) is directly tied to the playmakers they get.

For Nash, this could be HUGE.
I don't think he'll have any problem getting 35-40A on that NYR team.
74-79pts is very probable for Nash (82games).
He'll be near PPG. (0.90 to 0.95 PPG)

[bondon]

My thoughts:

Rick Nash - I agree. I think he's being overrated after being shipped to the Rangers. I think cautious optimism is a good idea with him...draft him expecting him to hit around 70 points and hope for more. Don't forget that he's going over to a new team for the first time in his career and he'll be adjusting to a new system/coaching style/city....we rarely see guys leave the gates hot in that scenario.

Ilya Kovalchuk - Disagree. Mentioned this in many other threads, but I wouldn't put too much stock in Parise leaving. While that will obviously hurt the team as a whole because of his strong two-way play, he was never really well utilized on the powerplay to begin with as the puck cycled mainly between Kovalchuk and Elias. Parise was mainly there to bang in rebounds at the side of the net which is a replaceable task. Also when considering Kovalchuk's down year with Parise injured, consider the coaching change, the new contract hype, all of that plays a role...not to mention the fact that after MacLean was fired Kovalchuk scored at a mid-70 point clip for the remainder of the season.

Dion Phaneuf - Agreed. I wouldn't care to own this guy in points only leagues because I find him horribly overrated in them based on his past as well as hype, but in multi-cat leagues he's a nice asset to have. That being said in my pools there is always one or two Leaf fans who will draft him high just because...so I'll never get my hands on him without overpaying.

Kimmo Timonen - Disagree. I don't think anyone will give Timonen much credit for anything because of his declining age which is why I actually believe Timonen to be a good late round steal for teams waiting to draft a decent point-scoring defenseman in the middle-later rounds.

Roberto Luongo - Not really sure I agree here either. If anything I'd say he's underrated. Many don't want to touch him with a 10-foot pole and the fact that he'll likely be in a time share for the near future I'd say has most gunshy on acquiring him.

Craig Anderson - Agree. Not really all that much faith in him to repeat this year...he was having a pretty bad season before he went on that run.

Jonathan Toews - In points only leagues I agree...in multi-cat leagues I think he's pretty valuable.

[3rtpaper]

I knew the Rick Nash would get arguements both ways so I won't really go much further into the discussions there.

Luongo might be underrated but as I said the goalies after Rinne/Lundy/Quick is a mess so it is more of who I like and don't like out of goalies. If he is avaliable later than he should be I will absolutely take him, I am just not targeting him due to so many different red flags.

As for Timonen I'm not sure how well points only leagues view his value (my leagues aren't points only but it was the best way I could look at defensemen). I just don't see him around 45 points again. I am sure he will get additional power play time but I don't see him getting a lot of offensive zone draws at even strength considering he is pretty much the only one left standing on that teams blue line.
Projection: 37 points - which is a 14% drop off from this year.. defensemen for points only is difficult because a 6 point swing in Timonen's case is 14% which is significant.

Keep the chatter going, I want other peoples picks too.. some actual discussion in this forum right now would be fantastic.

[Big Ev]

I don't think Anderson is overvalued, only because nobody ever talks about him from what I've read. Anyways, I see him putting up 35 wins or so. Reason he doesn't regress in wins? Better team defence. Doesn't matter if the offense isn't repeated exactly IMO.

[fungchen3]

The problem is - each poster here has their own perspective on a player's value and it usually stems from their particular scoring formats. For example, I am extremely high on players like Rick Nash and Thomas Vanek because they are rock solid in many of the Goal-bonused leagues I play in. I feel we all base a player's value on how they have (or haven't) performed in our particular leagues.

[3rtpaper]

The problem is - each poster here has their own perspective on a player's value and it usually stems from their particular scoring formats. For example, I am extremely high on players like Rick Nash and Thomas Vanek because they are rock solid in many of the Goal-bonused leagues I play in. I feel we all base a player's value on how they have (or haven't) performed in our particular leagues.

Very true, this is why I am trying to make the majority of my arguement based on points (there is some +/- going on) a guy like Backes or Lucic obviously has a lot more value in roto than in points league and no one is really expecting them to put up 80 points. My view for this is looking at expectations that each player has.

Many people expect Kovy to repeat last year, I do not for the reasons listed.
Some people also expect Nash reach 80+. I am just interested to see where other people's expections are of these players as well as others and who they see as undervalued vs overvalued in terms of point production.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Hugely over-valued in terms of point production for next year:

Claude Giroux: 93 points, of which 38 (!!) were on the power play. Assuming his ESP stay about the same, a return to a more typical 25-30 PPP brings him in at 80-85. That's considerably under the expectation most have for him.

Erik Karlsson: the chances of him repeating his production are low. Sure, he's the straw that stirs the drink in Ottawa, but the odds are still that he doesn't repeat. If you're drafting expecting 70+, then 60+ is a huge disappointment.

[Pengwin7]

Hugely over-valued in terms of point production for next year:

Claude Giroux: 93 points, of which 38 (!!) were on the power play. Assuming his ESP stay about the same, a return to a more typical 25-30 PPP brings him in at 80-85. That's considerably under the expectation most have for him.

Totally agree.
Sometimes, I swear, I think you are me... and that effs me up big time.

[bonehead]

nash i feel will do better now that he aint the only one teams have to focus on, like one of the above said new team and system will affect him at first but by the end he will be putting up at a ppg

kovy he will do fine carrying the load by himself does no one remember his years being the man on an even poorer atlanta team and dont say he had help cause look at who he played with there and wherre they are now he makes the players around him better

phaneuf well he is an over rated bum lol

timonen will do his thing and get more points than he should cause phillys a mess on the back end so id say good late pick so draft him then and trade him to some desperate fool

anderson i just tried to get him in myy keeper league and wow the asking price was nash or parise so yeah u could say over valued a little considering age and the sens arent a lock to make the playoffs

luo though is an interesting one he does put up very respectable numbers in the regular season so depending where he lands he could be under valued abit.


should be on the list

giroux
karlsson
bryz
and any rookie! they havent even done anything yet seriously would you trade stamkos for yak

[rufio.85]

Rick Nash - I agree. I think he's being overrated after being shipped to the Rangers. I think cautious optimism is a good idea with him...draft him expecting him to hit around 70 points and hope for more.

I agree with this. If you forget his last miserable year, the 2 seasons before he was putting points at a 70-72 points clip playing with guys like Huselius and Brassard. I think it's safe to say he can reach these levels again with Richards and Gaborik. Anything else is gravy, at least that's the way I approach it this year being a Nash owner.

[3rtpaper]

Last week I posted Best Value Players and people seemed to like the thread because it introduced some actual discussion on players and their relative values instead of "player x vs player y" which has been dominating the threads. So this week I decided to post who I view are the most over valued players.

I will go ahead and start this off by saying these players aren't "bad players" or ones that I don't want on my hockey team. The players I mention here are ones that will be drafted well before I would consider taking them.

Forwards:
Rick Nash: The most talked about player this offseason in these forums has to be Rich Nash. I've seen people regularly projecting 80 and even 90 points. That makes Nash's perceived value a 2nd round pick in a 12 team league. People credit Nash's fantasy boost to leaving CBJ and joining a much better team in the NYR and being able to play with B. Richards. Let’s look at the facts though, Nash has put up 67, 66, and 59 points the last 3 years. Nash is already 28 which I feel like if he was a consistent near point per game player he would have already proven that. The Rangers are a defensive oriented team which will limit Nash's offensive potential. Nash looks best when he has the puck, so does Brad Richards which isn't the best recipe for line success (think Nash + Carter). Nash was also the guy on the power play in CBJ he is now just one of the guys on the NYR (to be fair it should be a good power play). From a roto league stand point Nash is average at best for +/- -a lot of that can be attributed to the Jackets but B. Richards isn't a great +/- guy either.. I don't see how combining the two will suddenly make then +10 players. Overall there are just too many signs saying Nash won't improve much from a fantasy perspective now that he is a Ranger. His value isn't worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick for me.
Remember it only takes 1 GM to view Nash as having that value.

Ilya Kovalchuk - Last year Kovalchuk was fantastic, he was one of the highest point getters in the league and did a ton of damage on the power play. What has changed from last season to this season is significant. Last year I drafted Kovalchuk in the mid 3rd round and I laughed about it all season however this year his stock has been elevated to late first early/mid 2nd round I feel. Kovalchuk is coming off of back issues which are said to be alright but these kinds of injuries tend to flare up consistently (Holmstrom for example). Also Kovelchuk is the only consistent scoring threat for the Devils now that Parise is gone. He will see nothing but top defensive pairings. The Devils coaching staff is going to have to consistently get Kovalchuk offensive zone time (which I am sure is their plan) but I find it hard to imagine Kovalchuk doesn't slip a bit from last year. Keeping with the no Parise theme... there are also a lot of question marks about the Devils power play which is even more concerning to me when it comes to Kovalchuk (who had 29 of his points come on the power play. Once again I would love to have Kovalchuk on my team but his price tag is going to be a bit high for me this year.

Defense:
Defense is very difficult for me to look at over valued as a whole. If your league counts block shots the value of defensemen changes significantly, if your league counts hits yet another shift in value which everyone is well aware of I am sure. So I am going to look at this from a points only perspective.

Dion Phaneuf: Phaneuf re-established himself last year as a 40 point defenseman (the make or break level for points only defensemen). He managed to do this by being one of the best defensemen in terms of power play points (Weber, Pietrangelo, Edler.. all right with him). Yet his even strength points were significantly lower than Weber, Pietrangelo and Edler. Toronto's brought in JVR but upfront they are pretty much the same team they were last year. Any regression from Kessel or Lupul (highly likely) and Phaneuf's #'s will dip.

Kimmo Timonen: I probably sound like a broken record but Timonen did most of his damage on the powerplay last year (much like Phaneuf). The creativity and experience that the Flyers lost due to Jagr on leaving will be a larger impact than most expect for the power play. Additionally the Flyers D is decimated (the longer the lockout is the less valid this point is) which means Timonen is going to be playing the toughest minutes which will hurt his scoring even more. Being 37 playing tough minutes where he will be hit consistently is another part of the equation why I don't like Timonen for points only this year.

Goaltenders:Such a mess this year with goalies... almost any goalie could be the 4th off the board or the 15th off the board so I will just look at who i don't like this year.

Roberto Luongo: There is just so much going against Luongo this year. First off, he is likely to get traded to a team that won't win as much as the Canucks. Luongo will have to adjust to a new defensive system and communication which is difficult to do (many will point to Bryz in Philly as proof of this). The #1 concern I have for Luongo though has to be the lockout. The lockout will only exaggerate any potential communication/system problems between Luongo and his team/defense. Even more frightening is when was the last time you heard "Luongo had a great start of the season". Luongo is notoriously sub-par (or even horrible like last season) to start the year. If the season is shortened then Luongo doesn't have time to push his stats back to what we are used to seeing.

Craig Anderson: Anderson was great last year... at times. He made many poolies extremely happy with the amount of wins he delivered before getting hurt but Ottawa had everything going right for them last year. Karlsson putting up crazy points for a defenseman, Spezza not getting hurt and playing like he did several years ago, Michalek having a career year. It is going to be very difficult for Ottawa to repeat what it did last year which will take wins away from Anderson. Also Anderson is being pushed for time by Bishop who looked very strong in limited action last year. Less Ottawa wins and less playing time could really hurt Anderson this year.

Bonus - Lockout weary

Jonathan Toews - Toews was definitely a guy I wanted to get this year, he is consistently one of the better centers in the game and is usually slips in my leagues. Toews is also a slow starter which if the lockout continues will really hurt Toews actual value.

Nash: I want to give myself a nuetral on this but I will give myself a MISS - Nash had a great year and far exceeded my points expectations which was why I put him on the over valued list. That being said from what I could, Nash was drafted as a point per game player which he turned out being this year. So while I don't feel like it was a complete miss, he was appropriately valued this year.

Kovalchuk: HIT - Between the injuries and the decreased point production Kovalchuk struggled this year when compared to draft expectations. New Jersey really needs one of thier young centermen to step up into the #1 Center role or they need to aquire one before Kovalchuk will get to the point per game pace again.

Phaneuf: Miss - I really expected Gardiner to step up this year and be the offensive guy and Phaneuf to play some of the tougher minutes. Also I Kessel/Lupul (when healthy) played very well again this year which kept Phaneuf's offense up.

Timonen: Miss - I was expecting a PPP drop from Timonen this year and it didn't happen.. at all. Philly had absolutely no other options on the point. Kimmo playing the tough minutes did add up though and as I figured would be the case he got hurt. Luckily for those who drafted him though it was late in the season before he broke down.

Luongo: Hit - everything I said about Luongo didn't happen.. 1st I said he would probably get traded - obviously he didn't which ruined half my rambling. Next I said he starts slow - he didn't - in fact he probably had the best start of the season in his career. What saved this from being a miss was the fact that he didn't get traded - he was a back up witha .907 SV %. Sometimes its better to be right lucky than good..

Anderson: Neutral - The only reason this wasn't a miss was due to injury. Anderson was awesome this year when he played. All this being said Ottawa just plays strong defense. When you have 3 goalies on the roster who put up very very good numbers when they played, the system is to thank (at least in part)

Lockout Bonus: Toews - MISS - I feel like it was more of a tale of caution than an actual projection but my theory was wrong so I will take the MISS.. Toews doesn't start the season slow.. he just doesn't play well in the early months.. luckily for him and those who drafted him no one played in those months.

[Pengwin7]

LIKE:
I like the Kovalchuk pick & Anderson too.

SLIGHT DISAGREE:
The Phaneuf/Timonen picks are OK, but I actually think they'll both hover around their previous years totals.

DISAGREE
Rick Nash, though... I think this will be a good year. I would peg him for 75-80pts.
He'll be near PPG. (0.90 to 0.95 PPG)

I did pretty well with my own suggestions.
HIT: Kovalchuk, Phaneuf, Timonen, Nash [Good call me on Nash. 42pts in 44games = 0.95 points per game]
MISS: Anderson

Luongo: Hit - everything I said about Luongo didn't happen.. 1st I said he would probably get traded - obviously he didn't which ruined half my rambling. Next I said he starts slow - he didn't - in fact he probably had the best start of the season in his career. What saved this from being a miss was the fact that he didn't get traded - he was a back up witha .907 SV %. Sometimes its better to be right lucky than good..

Kudos to you for reviving a thread where you missed more than you hit. I like modesty. If somebody writes up a thread like this, they should check back in to see how they did.
I think you should probably give yourself a MISS on Anderson though, I did.

Thumbs up! [sent you some REP]

[theIceWookie]

Nash: I want to give myself a nuetral on this but I will give myself a MISS - Nash had a great year and far exceeded my points expectations which was why I put him on the over valued list. That being said from what I could, Nash was drafted as a point per game player which he turned out being this year. So while I don't feel like it was a complete miss, he was appropriately valued this year.

Kovalchuk: HIT - Between the injuries and the decreased point production Kovalchuk struggled this year when compared to draft expectations. New Jersey really needs one of thier young centermen to step up into the #1 Center role or they need to aquire one before Kovalchuk will get to the point per game pace again.

Phaneuf: Miss - I really expected Gardiner to step up this year and be the offensive guy and Phaneuf to play some of the tougher minutes. Also I Kessel/Lupul (when healthy) played very well again this year which kept Phaneuf's offense up.

Timonen: Miss - I was expecting a PPP drop from Timonen this year and it didn't happen.. at all. Philly had absolutely no other options on the point. Kimmo playing the tough minutes did add up though and as I figured would be the case he got hurt. Luckily for those who drafted him though it was late in the season before he broke down.

Luongo: Hit - everything I said about Luongo didn't happen.. 1st I said he would probably get traded - obviously he didn't which ruined half my rambling. Next I said he starts slow - he didn't - in fact he probably had the best start of the season in his career. What saved this from being a miss was the fact that he didn't get traded - he was a back up witha .907 SV %. Sometimes its better to be right lucky than good..

Anderson: Neutral - The only reason this wasn't a miss was due to injury. Anderson was awesome this year when he played. All this being said Ottawa just plays strong defense. When you have 3 goalies on the roster who put up very very good numbers when they played, the system is to thank (at least in part)

Lockout Bonus: Toews - MISS - I feel like it was more of a tale of caution than an actual projection but my theory was wrong so I will take the MISS.. Toews doesn't start the season slow.. he just doesn't play well in the early months.. luckily for him and those who drafted him no one played in those months.

phaneuf is always going to put up point totals like this. he's already playing those hard minutes right now and its actually preventing him from putting up more points. once (or if) the leafs get a top lime dman play with him, id expect his totals to actually seems bump up. Gardiner wont take any time away from him because he doesn't okay the same game. Gardiner sets him up on the pp in theory.

nice thread though, I enjoyed it

[Shoeless]

I really enjoyed these threads and the reviews - I too give you a miss on Anderson. Yup he missed 20 games but his numbers were other worldly when he played.

Time to start looking at keepers and doing some off season trade shopping - any pearls of wisdom?