Elliott = Harding?

[finnys_fanatsy]

i currently own as part of one of my teams (start two, daily lineups - W, SV, SV%) :

Luongo*
Elliot (on the bubble)*
Backstrom*
Theodore
Lehner (as a prospect)*
* - keeper

Been in talks with another GM about aquiring Harding, but he has no intrest in Theodore, but he does like Elliott. While it would be nice to have Harding as a handcuff option for Backs, does it make sense?

If i make the trade, i have no third option if MIN doesnt play that night, but if Backs gets hurt or splits time...i'm good.

If i dont make the trade, and Backs gets hurt or splits time with Harding ive really only got half (more or less) the starts, but i still have Elliott to play...if he plays

we havent drafted yet, so there could be other g-men of similar calibre and tier as Theo out there on draft day, so this trade needs to make sense as the goalie crop wont be spectacular.

I basically rode the 4 goalies for a good part of last year and held up fairly well (thanks to Elliott), and Backs does stand to see better numbers this year

...i'm talking myself in circles here, somebody stop me! What should i do?

[bondon]

In terms of value, Elliott probably provides better quality starts and as such might have more value, but given your team and your lack of a solid #1 to begin with (Luongo's situation is muddled, Backstrom and Harding share time), this trade makes sense for your team.

I would pull the trigger, but if I were you I'd get to working on acquiring some starting goaltending help

[3rtpaper]

Very tough decision considering you're trading a very capable back up for another very capable back up. I would have to pull the trigger though. Elliot is still battling Halak (pretty good battle but seeing how both are young going forward Elliot could very well lose out), Harding is battling Backstrom but father time will eventually take Backstrom and you will have Harding take over (until Hackett starts pushing for time). Its a 1B goalie for a 1B goalie, all things considered I would make this move but I would look to see if you can make some other moves first.

[finnys_fanatsy]

thanks guys, g-men are wickedly valuable in this league (10GM) and they only count for 3 of the 10 scoring catagories. But there are no salaries to force trades, so unless you are willing to unload a star for an elite (or even tier 1b)g-man, trades involving goalies are pretty much kept to backups and split-timers like Elloitt and Harding.

i know my goalie situation isnt great (better than some), but its what i have at the moment .

i'll still take more thoughts on the subject...and diggin for another #1 g-man.

[Pengwin7]

Take Harding.


Discussion:
Elliott is in a position to put up better numbers... but can you use them?
1) You have to log-in every day to check and see if Elliott is starting.
2) Even if he is starting, his games may overlap with Luongo or Backstrom and you may not even use Elliott.
3) With SV being one of 3 categories, you have to get as many starts as possible... and there's more out there, IMO, with Backstrom/Harding than with Backstrom/Elliott.


Essentially, it comes to this:
If Backstrom is not playing... then you can 100% start your 3rd goalie (Harding).
It's a goalie-conflict thing.
Harding as your #3 goalie... you'll play him whenever he starts (because N.Backs is not).
Elliott as your #3 goalie... you'll play him IF he is starting AND one of Luongo/N.Backs is not.

I'd make this trade and take Harding for Elliott because it helps your team.

[finnys_fanatsy]

Take Harding.


Discussion:
Elliott is in a position to put up better numbers... but can you use them?
1) You have to log-in every day to check and see if Elliott is starting.
2) Even if he is starting, his games may overlap with Luongo or Backstrom and you may not even use Elliott.
3) With SV being one of 3 categories, you have to get as many starts as possible... and there's more out there, IMO, with Backstrom/Harding than with Backstrom/Elliott.


Essentially, it comes to this:
If Backstrom is not playing... then you can 100% start your 3rd goalie (Harding).
It's a goalie-conflict thing.
Harding as your #3 goalie... you'll play him whenever he starts (because N.Backs is not).
Elliott as your #3 goalie... you'll play him IF he is starting AND one of Luongo/N.Backs is not.

I'd make this trade and take Harding for Elliott because it helps your team.

i think thats wher i was headed in my mind, but it takes somebody else to put it all together. Excellent post...thanks Penqwin. thanks b0ndon and 3rtpaper as well.

if i could rep i would, but it seems i have lost my rep power since the conversion to the new setup.

[Pengwin7]

No problem on the rep... not needed.

Interestingly - rjfisher was nice enough to provide the 2012-2013 Same Night Tool.
So, here's a walkthrough of your situation.

1) Let's assume Luongo ends up in Florida.
2) You've got N.Backstrom with Minnesota.

3) Running the "Same Night Tool" indicates that St.Louis (Elliott) would have 37 conflicts (same night) and 45 off-nights (different night) vs. FLA+MIN combo.

The MATH:
1) Let's say Luongo starts 65/82 games.
2) Let's say N.Backstrom starts 60/82 games.

That leaves approximately 15-20 nights where there actually isn't a conflict... if St.Louis plays.
So, in total there are 45+20+ (say) opportunities to start a STL goalie.
Let's peg Elliott to play in 30 games, that's a 36% start rate.

ELLIOTT: 36% x 65 = 23/30 actual starts where you could put him into your roster.
HARDING: So, he might get 22 actual starts (if N.Backstrom) gets the other 60.

So, it's close to even.
But the bonus for you is that IF Backstrom goes down (possible) or Harding improves (possible) than you have that safety net.

OK... that's all.
A link to rjfisher's Same Night Tool. (Highly recommend playing with this for anybody deciding on their +1 goalie for next season.)

[finnys_fanatsy]

No problem on the rep... not needed.

Interestingly - rjfisher was nice enough to provide the 2012-2013 Same Night Tool.
So, here's a walkthrough of your situation.

1) Let's assume Luongo ends up in Florida.
2) You've got N.Backstrom with Minnesota.

3) Running the "Same Night Tool" indicates that St.Louis (Elliott) would have 37 conflicts (same night) and 45 off-nights (different night) vs. FLA+MIN combo.

The MATH:
1) Let's say Luongo starts 65/82 games.
2) Let's say N.Backstrom starts 60/82 games.

That leaves approximately 15-20 nights where there actually isn't a conflict... if St.Louis plays.
So, in total there are 45+20+ (say) opportunities to start a STL goalie.
Let's peg Elliott to play in 30 games, that's a 36% start rate.

ELLIOTT: 36% x 65 = 23/30 actual starts where you could put him into your roster.
HARDING: So, he might get 22 actual starts (if N.Backstrom) gets the other 60.

So, it's close to even.
But the bonus for you is that IF Backstrom goes down (possible) or Harding improves (possible) than you have that safety net.

OK... that's all.
A link to rjfisher's Same Night Tool. (Highly recommend playing with this for anybody deciding on their +1 goalie for next season.)

i saw that tool, but hadnt had a chnace to look at yet. but ya its close..thanks again

[icevenom]

No problem on the rep... not needed.

Interestingly - rjfisher was nice enough to provide the 2012-2013 Same Night Tool.
So, here's a walkthrough of your situation.

1) Let's assume Luongo ends up in Florida.
2) You've got N.Backstrom with Minnesota.

3) Running the "Same Night Tool" indicates that St.Louis (Elliott) would have 37 conflicts (same night) and 45 off-nights (different night) vs. FLA+MIN combo.

The MATH:
1) Let's say Luongo starts 65/82 games.
2) Let's say N.Backstrom starts 60/82 games.

That leaves approximately 15-20 nights where there actually isn't a conflict... if St.Louis plays.
So, in total there are 45+20+ (say) opportunities to start a STL goalie.
Let's peg Elliott to play in 30 games, that's a 36% start rate.

ELLIOTT: 36% x 65 = 23/30 actual starts where you could put him into your roster.
HARDING: So, he might get 22 actual starts (if N.Backstrom) gets the other 60.

So, it's close to even.
But the bonus for you is that IF Backstrom goes down (possible) or Harding improves (possible) than you have that safety net.

OK... that's all.
A link to rjfisher's Same Night Tool. (Highly recommend playing with this for anybody deciding on their +1 goalie for next season.)

The safety net from harding makes sense. If you believe it to be fairly even... minimize risk.

Halak will always be given all the opportunity in the world. Contract/etc...

Backstrom is on a contract year, isn't he?? something to keep in mind. He may excel... OR harding may try to beat him out to secure #1 for next year.

Upside to Elliot is the ability to sell him to the Halak owner if he steals a lot of starts.

[finnys_fanatsy]

ended up trading Elliot/Bergeron for Varly/Berglund to a differnt GM. he has Halak... i tried to get Halak to no avail.

so now i have Luongo, Backs, Varly and Lehner as my keepers, and Theo gets demoted to FA land

how did i do?

still doesnt feel like i accomplished anything