System for Evaluating Prospects

[Zedpher]

I have developed a system that helps identify players who will play in the NHL and be productive (point-wise) players, and those who will fall short of expectations.

I wanted to see if players who went on to be good to great NHLers shared traits in their early statistical history that would mark them as being on a path for success. It seems that players, just before and after their 18th birthdays, can show what level of success they will or won’t achieve in the NHL based on what they have accomplished statistically in their pre-professional careers.

The most important factor in helping a prospect achieve his full potential and NHL success is bringing him along in a positive and winning environment, both at the NHL and AHL level. There are several cases where a player seems to be a marginal or mediocre NHLer, only to blossom into a valuable player (Patrick Sharp). This is also true in the reverse. If a player is drafted and immediately placed on a weak team, that does not have leaders and mentors in the dressing room and on the ice, and that player is expected by the front office, media and fans to be the offensive savior of the team, then this can permenantly damage a player (Michael Frolik is an example).

Detroit has an excellent model for player development. They have built a positive and winning atmosphere in the NHL, with many high-quality mentors for the younger player to look up to and learn from. In the AHL they have a quality coaching staff and teach prospects the finer points of the game. They also never rush a prospect, preferring them to gain confidence and build up their skills and mindset for the NHL game.

This system looks at statisical milestones that great players hit during their early careers. Missed milestones are a warning sign. Milestones vary in terms of importance. Some, like getting a point a game in major junior in their draft year, are very important. Others, like their pre-major junor career point totals, or how well the do in the World Cup international tournament, aren’t as important, but still have value.

Players who miss milestones are at risk of the following once they get to the NHL: inconsistent year to year point production, not reaching their potential, and not having long NHL careers (being a bust). Just because a player misses a minor milestone, doesn’t mean that they will be a bust, but it does show that the player will probably need a better environment once they get to the NHL (mentors, good players to play with, etc.). Generational talents llike Gretzky, Lemieux, Crosby hit all of their milestones (and then some!) And only these types of players don’t need any special nuturing environment to succeed.

The System

The following is the analytical system for scouting players. Milestones are defined in each section. Players should hit as many milestones as possible. If not, they are at risk of inconsistency or having short NHL careers. This system focuses on three main areas: regular season, playoffs, and international tournaments (WHC and WJC). Successful NHL players consistently perform well in all three areas.

Note: This system mainly focuses on offensive forwards.

A. Pre-junior career

i) A player should get around a point a game or better in their pre-junior career (AAA, provincial junior hockey leagues, US National Team Development Program, etc.). The player also needs to show steady improvement from year to year, and should have a strong playoff, around a point a game or better. Also, When a player goes from one level, say Junior B to Junior A, and then goes back to Junior B after a brief stay in Junior A, the player should start getting many more points in the lower level. After being challenged in a higher level, the player will then find the lower level ‘easy.’

B. Junior Career

i) In his first year of major junior hockey, a player should get around 20+ goals and be around a point a game. They should also perform well in the playoffs and be around a point a game. A poor playoff perfomance is a warning sign. Ideally, a player should accomplish this as a 16-17 year old. The younger a player hits these milestones in major junior, the better the player. If a player’s first year in major junior is as a 17-18 year old, then his stats should be closer to 30 goals and a point a game. This should all be accomplished in around 65 games or less.

Having a bad first year in junior (around or under 20 goals and significantly below a point a game) is a warning sign of future problems, especially if the player’s first year is as a 17 year old ... Even if they ‘kill’ it the next year. Great players don’t struggle for a full season at any point. Goals are a key indicator. A player, even if he is a playmaker, needs to show that he can score goals. Low goal totals are a bad sign.

ii) In their draft year, the player should get 30 goals or better and at or above a point a game.The player needs to show a solid point and goal total progression from the previous year. Star NHL scorers should get about 100 points or more in their draft year. Stagnation in points and goals is a warning sign. As usual, players need to score goals and points in the playoffs. At least to be in line with their scoring rate of the regular season. A poor playoff performance is a warning sign, especially if the player had a great regular season.

iii) As a full 18 year old, and the year after they are drafted, the player needs to show major improvement in point and goal totals. They should also score over 100 points. Failure to show improvement and put up big numbers after they are drafted is a big warning sign. Again, the player should have a great playoff run. Ideally the player should have a dominant post-season. Failure to have a great playoffs is a warning sign, especially at this stage when the player should be dominant.

iv) If a player plays a fourth year in major junior, they should have a monster season. Eclipsing their previous season’s totals, they should be far too good for the league at this point. A stagnation or regression in point toals in the fourth year is a warning sign.

Notes: A player who gets 100+ points in each of his first three years in major junior is a golden sign of success. A player who can do this has talent to burn. Claude Giroux is an example of a a ‘Golden’ player like this.

While they still need to show point progression each year, and do great in the playoffs, they can still miss a milestone and be successful NHLers (due to their high talent level). Missing a milestone for this type of player usually means inconsistency from year to year. Vincent Lecavalier, Daniel Briere and Brad Richards are examples of ‘Golden’ players who missed a milestone but still went on to be stars, but with consistency issues.

C. International Tournaments

i) True NHL point producers get around a point a game or better in every international tournament (WHC and WJC) they are in. Star NHLers get around double-digit point in each of their tournaments. Analysis has indicated that a player’s point totals should be a good mix of goals and assists, not all goals and not all assists (which has shown can be a bit of a bad sign).

A player who only scores goals or gets only assists could be a warning sign of future trouble. Also, a player who is having a great season in major junior, or is a big goal scorer, then goes to a tournament and gets almost no points is a big warning sign. This warning sign can be lessened if the player is young and is barely being played, on a terrible team, or is a ‘Golden’ player (100+ points in each major junior season). Still, having a bad (ie. 6 GP 1 G 1 A, 2 PTS) tournament is a warning sign of some future problem.

True star NHLers (Peter Forsberg and Jordan Eberle are two examples) dominate tournament scoring year after year.

Consistent NHL offensive defencemen always get more than zero or one points in international tournaments.

Notes: If a player does not have international tournament experience, or playoff experience, then you are taking a risk in drafting that player. You need a well-rounded evaluation of many different seasons, playoffs and tournaments to get an accurate read on how a player will develop.

** Special Note on Russian Forwards:
- From my research, I would avoid at all costs, drafting Russian forwards. In the 11 NHL drafts (from 2000 to 2010), Only one Russian forward was drafted to become a star player who has been consistent in play and attitude: Evgeni Malkin. These are the other Russian forwards who have attained success, to some degree (and there aren’t many): Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, Semin, and Radulov ... They ended being inconsistent, poor playoff performers and/or attitude problems (Asking for huge contracts or a KHL flight risk). The Russian forwards that I named are the only ones who have had NHL careers of any note! With such a poor success rate, I would avoid all Russian forwards. Russian defencemen and goaltenders are different, though.

** Special Note on 17 year old and 18 year old European players playing in the Canadian Hockey League:
- From my research, European (including Russians), who come over to play in the CHL as 17 and 18 year olds usually put up a point a game or better numbers right away. This, I found, is misleading. My hypothesis is that these players have often played in leagues where they face older players, including men, so they get a scoring boost by playing younger, inexperienced juniors. It is more important to see what these players do in WJC tournaments to get a better gauage of their overall talent level. They usually need to post incredible numbers in the CHL (like Alex Radulov did in the QMJHL) to prove that they are elite talents, and not 50-70 point players, at best.

I have used this system to successfully rebuild my Keeper League team, going from last place to 4th place in one year. I am hoping to finish 2nd or 1st next year.

[GMGates]

Amazing stuff Zedpher, big thanks for sharing - I will tweet this shortly.

[Dobber]

This was interesting, although I have to call you on the Russian reasoning - Ovechkin and Kovalchuk have never once left my Top 25 keeper league players to own. Consistent enough for me. Malkin's injury issues make him as much a risk as any attitude problem.

[mister_mcgoo]

I dunno man, this can all be distilled down into a single statement:

"players who put up big numbers consitently in junior have a better chance of doing well in the NHL than those who don't".

take a look at the numbers for guys like: Rob Schremp, Corey Locke, Simon Gamache, Marc-Andre Thinel, Brandon Kozun, etc...and there are dozens more that I'm forgetting now, these are guys who came pretty damn near your golden standard but never amounted to anything in the pros...there's gotta be a reason why these guys don't follow suit with the 'system' right?

[dyzfunctioned]

Here I was expecting an analysis on skating mechanics.

[Dakkster]

Here I was expecting an analysis on skating mechanics.

I miss MT319.

[vandalay]

I dunno man, this can all be distilled down into a single statement:

"players who put up big numbers consitently in junior have a better chance of doing well in the NHL than those who don't".

take a look at the numbers for guys like: Rob Schremp, Corey Locke, Simon Gamache, Marc-Andre Thinel, Brandon Kozun, etc...and there are dozens more that I'm forgetting now, these are guys who came pretty damn near your golden standard but never amounted to anything in the pros...there's gotta be a reason why these guys don't follow suit with the 'system' right?

The guys that you listed did not put up big numbers before being drafted. This is one of the points being made.

Schremp put up only decent numbers as a draft eligible player, it was his post-draft seasons and in particular his second season post-draft that were big. Corey Locke was passed over in his first draft eligible season, only to put up big numbers the following season and got drafted as a 19 year old. Same story with Gamache. Thinel did put up big numbers in his draft eligible year but he wasn't picked until the 5th round so scouts obviously had their reservations about him, for good reason. Kozun? See Locke and Gamache, he was passed over in 2008 and drafted as a 19 year old in 2009.

[ericdaoust]

Here I was expecting an analysis on skating mechanics.

The real system for evaluating prospects involves a stopwatch and 40 yards of ice.

[ericdaoust]

In all seriousness, I really like the article. It's not about trying to nail down every prospect and be correct all the time, but rather a set of rules that help reduce some of the risk when it comes to making player or prospect decisions.

So... would a prospect like Zack Phillips be considered a red flag?

[Zedpher]

This was interesting, although I have to call you on the Russian reasoning - Ovechkin and Kovalchuk have never once left my Top 25 keeper league players to own. Consistent enough for me. Malkin's injury issues make him as much a risk as any attitude problem.

Hey Dobber, if you traded for Ovechkin two years ago, you would have to be really disappointed at his production since then. Plus, Kovalchuk has had a mediocre season or two along the way. At some point in time, my feelings on Russian forwards will change, but for now, the trend is not favorable. Ignoring Russian forwards would have made me miss some real duds like Filatov, Zherdev, Frolov and so on.

[Zedpher]

In all seriousness, I really like the article. It's not about trying to nail down every prospect and be correct all the time, but rather a set of rules that help reduce some of the risk when it comes to making player or prospect decisions.

So... would a prospect like Zack Phillips be considered a red flag?

I don't like his first year as a 17 year old: a paltry 16 goals and 40 odd points. His second season as an 18 year old was great but then he regressed this year on both goals and points. He also had a poor playoff in his first year. I see him as a marginal NHLer.

[Zedpher]

I must say thanks to everyone who read my article and commented. Even of you don't agree, I really appreciate the discussion!

[Brady19]

I don't like his first year as a 17 year old: a paltry 16 goals and 40 odd points. His second season as an 18 year old was great but then he regressed this year on both goals and points. He also had a poor playoff in his first year. I see him as a marginal NHLer.

While I really like Zack Phillips and have thought he was one of the best players on the ice virtually every time I've had a chance to see him play... I like the bold statement. That's the type of thing to look back on in 3-4 years (like that Frolov thread in one of the other sections) and see where it leads.