I'm in a huge pickle... REP for good answers

[Pengwin7]

-I'm neck and neck for the championship in my Yahoo Winners' ROTO league with 2nd place (GOON SQUAD) - only 0.5 points in the overall standings separates us.

Jeez... I feel like I'm left hanging by a thread on the most interesting aspect... do you have a chance to catch this guy for 1st?

What is the impact on you IF he catches you? Could you slip to 3rd?

These are important questions.
At this point in the season, teams typically don't move more than 1 sv% point or .02 GAA with even a bad game. So it's not like he'll pass you... maybe just tie.


Point asking - are you in danger of falling below 3rd?
Or is there a way for you to catch him for 1st?

What are you really looking to achieve?

(Bench your goalies is my answer, BTW.)

[blayze]

Jeez... I feel like I'm left hanging by a thread on the most interesting aspect... do you have a chance to catch this guy for 1st?

What is the impact on you IF he catches you? Could you slip to 3rd?

These are important questions.
At this point in the season, teams typically don't move more than 1 sv% point or .02 GAA with even a bad game. So it's not like he'll pass you... maybe just tie.


Point asking - are you in danger of falling below 3rd?
Or is there a way for you to catch him for 1st?

What are you really looking to achieve?

(Bench your goalies is my answer, BTW.)

It's just between him and I for first overall... I'm in first at 94.5 and he's at 94.0... the others have fallen behind by double digits. He can't gain ground in offensive cats because he's maxxed out on games, and I'm not really within striking distance of anyone else with the limited amount of forward games I have left. This will most likely be decided on goalie cats (unless I have a huge meltdown on +/- tonight).

We've been seesawing back and forth on the goalie cats for the last 2 months... he had a sizable lead on me until Timmy Thomas collapsed and Quick caught fire recently.

What I've found is that one single good/bad game can easily swing the GAA/Save % by 0.01-0.02. A shutout or a 4-5 goal game will move the ratios by 0.02 easily -even at this stage in the season with the large sample set.

I'd be interested to hear your rationale for benching both?

[27Blue]

i bet kipper doesn't even start for calgary tonight...

[wendelclark17]

mmmmm interesting dilemma. At first glance I would go with benching Rinne and watching Kipper's start. Regarding how much time before you have to bench or activate guys, realistically once Calgary is done the first period you will have to make your decision as the chances of them starting the second and leaving you much time left before the LAK start to make the bench/start call are slim. So basically you get a one period preview of Kipper. The kings are fighting to hold onto that 3rd spot so I think they will put forth a big effort tonight. If they lose they could end up 7th or 8th which would be disastrous. As for Rinne I think I would lean towards benching him. Nashville will want to win to get home-ice in the first round but with Detroits win last night its now out of their hands, add to that Rinne's illness or whatever and who knows if he even starts tonight and if he does will he be at 100%? (link - http://nashvillenewschannel.com/inde...medium=twitter ). You have the rare luxury of seeing what your opponents only starter is doing early on prior to your decision. If Kipper lets up 3 in the first you bench Quick.

Im interested in this dilemma so im gonna do some digging and see if it changes my mind.

[Pengwin7]

Is it a big $$$ league? Or just free?

If we are talking big $$$, here's what I do.
1. Get out your calculator.
2. Walk through EVERY start that your goalies have made. This will take a LONG time. Add up their minutes, shots faced goals against. (WHY?)

3. Yahoo won't break it down, but your goaltending statistics are truncated to a decimal number.
For example
0.9234999 save percentage = 0.923
0.9235001 save percentage = 0.924 (In other words... at some point, there is that ONE save that pushes you up a number. Obviously, ONE goal against pushes you down faster.)

I'm actually not sure if they are rounded up or rounded down.
I'm probably 1/1000 fantasy hockey people that do this in H2H leagues.
On Saturday night, I crunch goalie stats and check my goalies & his.

Then I can prepare "Cases":
I'll say, OK...
if GoalieX plays for me tomorrow and gives up 1 goal in 60min... I'll win GAA.
if GoalieX plays for me tomorrow and gives up 2 goals in 60min... I'll lose GAA.
(In the case above, I'd sit my goalie because it's more likely, 50%+, that he'll give up 2 or more goals)

I'm in a similar league... ROTO.
I got out to a huge comfortable lead in W & SO.
I had ups & downs and my opponents too.
One day, I had great games and my opponents had bad games.
I am currently at 0.920 SV% and 2.32 GAA
My opponents were at 0.919 SV% and 2.35 GAA.
Since then... I haven't started any goalies. (About 3 weeks ago, with Thomas/Halak/Hiller)
Now, I'm obviously still at 0.920 SV% and 2.32 GAA.
My opponents have fallen to 0.918 SV% and 2.36 GAA.

Lot of work... but it can give you a realistic calculation about whether he's going to catch you or not.

If your GAA is a smidge above a rounding line, then you don't want to risk it.
If your GAA is a smidge below that rounding line, then you may want to risk it.

Do you get all that? (Kind of confusing math stuff)

[blayze]

Is it a big $$$ league? Or just free?

If we are talking big $$$, here's what I do.
1. Get out your calculator.
2. Walk through EVERY start that your goalies have made. This will take a LONG time. Add up their minutes, shots faced goals against. (WHY?)

3. Yahoo won't break it down, but your goaltending statistics are truncated to a decimal number.
For example
0.9234999 save percentage = 0.923
0.9235001 save percentage = 0.924 (In other words... at some point, there is that ONE save that pushes you up a number. Obviously, ONE goal against pushes you down faster.)

I'm actually not sure if they are rounded up or rounded down.
I'm probably 1/1000 fantasy hockey people that do this in H2H leagues.
On Saturday night, I crunch goalie stats and check my goalies & his.

Then I can prepare "Cases":
I'll say, OK...
if GoalieX plays for me tomorrow and gives up 1 goal in 60min... I'll win GAA.
if GoalieX plays for me tomorrow and gives up 2 goals in 60min... I'll lose GAA.
(In the case above, I'd sit my goalie because it's more likely, 50%+, that he'll give up 2 or more goals)

I'm in a similar league... ROTO.
I got out to a huge comfortable lead in W & SO.
I had ups & downs and my opponents too.
One day, I had great games and my opponents had bad games.
I am currently at 0.920 SV% and 2.32 GAA
My opponents were at 0.919 SV% and 2.35 GAA.
Since then... I haven't started any goalies. (About 3 weeks ago, with Thomas/Halak/Hiller)
Now, I'm obviously still at 0.920 SV% and 2.32 GAA.
My opponents have fallen to 0.918 SV% and 2.36 GAA.

Lot of work... but it can give you a realistic calculation about whether he's going to catch you or not.

If your GAA is a smidge above a rounding line, then you don't want to risk it.
If your GAA is a smidge below that rounding line, then you may want to risk it.

Do you get all that? (Kind of confusing math stuff)

LOL Pengwin... you never cease to surprise me.

Thanks for the suggestion, however, big money or not, there's NO WAY I would ever have the mental fortitude to go through that kind of exercise haha.

I completely understand what you're suggesting though. I think general rule of thumb based on my observation at this point in the season is 3-4 goals/game will shift the ratios by 0.01 (assuming standard 25-30 shots).

I think I'll go with what I described above... bench Rinne, preview Kipper for one period, and then make a decision on Quick. Even if Kipper is pitching a shutout by the end of the first period (Sedin is out), the question is do I still start Quick?

Honestly, I'm inclined to sit Quick regardless... like Gotlaid mentioned, I just don't have a good feeling about the Sharks. We'll see, I'm just gonna go with the flow tonight and pray lol

[Pengwin7]

I'd bench them.
Also - what's your league tie-breaker... consider that? (Usually I think it's Goals)
Giving up a 0.5pt may be fine if you have the tie-breaker.

[blayze]

I'd bench them.
Also - what's your league tie-breaker... consider that? (Usually I think it's Goals)
Giving up a 0.5pt may be fine if you have the tie-breaker.

Good question... I have no idea, I've never been in that situation in a Yahoo pool before, but the competitive spirit in me wants a definitive victory

[blayze]

i bet kipper doesn't even start for calgary tonight...

It would be so awesome if this happens

[wendelclark17]

Rinne says he is in tonight

https://twitter.com/#!/Smashville247...27918150815744

[27Blue]

sorry dude, kipper is in tonight
karlsson gets the ducks on saturday

[blayze]

sorry dude, kipper is in tonight
karlsson gets the ducks on saturday

Is that confirmed? That's still actually good news for me.

In some ways, I'd rather have Kipper starting today than Saturday.

Gives me more flexibility on the final day knowing he won't get the start.

[27Blue]

that is the word on calgary sports radio....

[theIceWookie]

Is that confirmed? That's still actually good news for me.

In some ways, I'd rather have Kipper starting today than Saturday.

Gives me more flexibility on the final day knowing he won't get the start.

You are in a pickle. From a complete desire to win point of view, I'd go with Pengwin's idea but I would also lack the desire and mental fortitude to do that, so let's put that aside for now lol.

Play the 5 minute before game roster setting game. If that doesn't make it easier, go with your gut?

That is a tough, tough position. Personally I'd go with the not playing the goalies if nothing's changed. You can't get any worse and you still have two days to make up the stat if he pulls ahead tonight.

That's my view.

[cahamm16]

What pengwin is talking about doing isn't actually that time consuming in yahoo leagues for save%. They added a " team log" link on your team page. It lists every point collected by every player on your team for the year.

Easily add up shots against and saves to get your current save % to as many decimal points as you like without going through old game logs.

Gaa you can't do as easily though, unless you've never benched a goalie and can use their total minutes off any stats site...