Best available option?

[Pengwin7]

I read a thread the other day in regard to save% & GAA. The guy inserted his goalie the first week. Got a GAA of 1.00 (something like that) and a save percentage of .950. He pulled his goalies, traded them, and never inserted a goalie again.

I've heard of this happening too.
An experienced commish will often put a full-season goalie GP minimum in effect to negate this sort of scheme. Even in H2H weeks, goalies typically need 3 GP per week. Same in roto, just a bigger number for full season. 50 games for goalies in a 1-start league... something like that.

[rticinelli]

Got it, sort of.

I read a thread the other day in regard to save% & GAA. The guy inserted his goalie the first week. Got a GAA of 1.00 (something like that) and a save percentage of .950. He pulled his goalies, traded them, and never inserted a goalie again. This conceded Wins, but consistently gave him the other stats. He also had the benefit of using the value of his goaltending (trade value) at another position for the entire season.

Okay, a vaguely understand. I also find the concept offensive. I'm not blaming the guy for doing it, particularly if they were playing for $$$. It's against the spirit of the game in general though.

Thanks
JHM

JHM
So, given that it's not a weekly or head to head format and is strictly a cumulative scoring system, does that change your feelings or do you still favor Pavelec over the rest?

[JHM]

Cumulative scoring. Therefore, I would suggest, that in particular cumulative stats would benefit immensely with the addition of Pavelec. SO & Wins in particular. Contemplate this carefully for those stats that rise & fall (save percentage, GAA, +-... etc).

You've had a bit of input here, hopefully to assist in the decision.

Don't forget the point about injury either!

(I'm thinking I take on Pavelec if I'm in your shoes)

Pretend Pavelec drops you three spots in the save percentage column and five spots in the GAA column. He'll bring that back to you doubly in the WINS column and in the SO columns. 30 wins should bring you up a LONG way. Maybe 10 spots? Five shutouts should push you right near the very top of the pile. 10 would be in the middle of the hunt.

One of the part time goalies wouldn't have nearly as large an impact.

It is important that you do believe in Pavelec, some.

[TheRook]

the problem with theo, pavalec or varlamov (maybe even backstrom) is the teams they play for will effect there stats. In a roto league i would stay away from them as they will most likely damage what advantage Lundqvist gives you.

I would go with a solid backup on a good team. Someone like Schnieder or Neuvirth should do the trick and build on what Lundqvist provides. They should each get about 20-25 games and that should be enough to solidify those stats. Especially since there arent any quality second starters available.

I might be inclined to go a forward like jagr because of the roto categories he will provide (g, a, ppp, sog) and then look to get Schneider or Neuvirth with the next pick.

[rticinelli]

Cumulative scoring. Therefore, I would suggest, that in particular cumulative stats would benefit immensely with the addition of Pavelec. SO & Wins in particular. Contemplate this carefully for those stats that rise & fall (save percentage, GAA, +-... etc).

You've had a bit of input here, hopefully to assist in the decision.

Don't forget the point about injury either!

(I'm thinking I take on Pavelec if I'm in your shoes)

Pretend Pavelec drops you three spots in the save percentage column and five spots in the GAA column. He'll bring that back to you doubly in the WINS column and in the SO columns. 30 wins should bring you up a LONG way. Maybe 10 spots? Five shutouts should push you right near the very top of the pile. 10 would be in the middle of the hunt.

One of the part time goalies wouldn't have nearly as large an impact.

It is important that you do believe in Pavelec, some.

Thanks for all the input from everyone on this. Since I plan on contending this year, I really can't afford to tank in any single category. With that in mind, taking on a starter as a #2 over a monster backup makes much more sense. I could always target one of the top backups as a #3 option to help stabilize whatever potential damage to GAA/Sv% my #2 goalie does.

Thanks again... as of now I am leaning towards Pavelec. I really "want" Varlamov, but his health + Justin Goldman's constant warnings against him all summer have me second guessing that choice. I really don't want to take Backstrom... don't know exactly why, I just don't like Minnesota for my fantasy team at all. My only knock against Pavelec is his team and the travel. Each choice presents a number of compromises and, right now, Pavelec seems to be the best compromise for what I need.

[TheRook]

Thanks for all the input from everyone on this. Since I plan on contending this year, I really can't afford to tank in any single category. With that in mind, taking on a starter as a #2 over a monster backup makes much more sense. I could always target one of the top backups as a #3 option to help stabilize whatever potential damage to GAA/Sv% my #2 goalie does.

Thanks again... as of now I am leaning towards Pavelec. I really "want" Varlamov, but his health + Justin Goldman's constant warnings against him all summer have me second guessing that choice. I really don't want to take Backstrom... don't know exactly why, I just don't like Minnesota for my fantasy team at all. My only knock against Pavelec is his team and the travel. Each choice presents a number of compromises and, right now, Pavelec seems to be the best compromise for what I need.

I would be wary of Pavalec this year. I think he will end up being a stud but i think the travel and a new city with a completely different climate than Atlanta will be very challenging for him and the team. If you believe Angus, he has the Jets pegged to finish last this year and i cant argue against him. i think you would be drafting pavalec more for his potential than what he might produce this year.

If you want to go with a starter, and as much as you dont want Backstrom, i think he is the safest pick. They dont have much of a defense but they have improved their offense with Heatley and Seto.

If this was next year, i might support your decision but i think this year it might provide more challenging than you want.

[rticinelli]

I would be wary of Pavalec this year. I think he will end up being a stud but i think the travel and a new city with a completely different climate than Atlanta will be very challenging for him and the team. If you believe Angus, he has the Jets pegged to finish last this year and i cant argue against him. i think you would be drafting pavalec more for his potential than what he might produce this year.

If you want to go with a starter, and as much as you dont want Backstrom, i think he is the safest pick. They dont have much of a defense but they have improved their offense with Heatley and Seto.

If this was next year, i might support your decision but i think this year it might provide more challenging than you want.

Believe me, I'm wary of all the available options! Of the remaining starters, I think Colorado is the only team with a chance to be halfway decent. But Varlamov is far from a sure thing. Pavelec has the talent, but no track record and a horrible team in front of him. Backstrom is definitely the safest option...

I feel great about guys like Schneider, Bernier and Neuvirth, but they won't get me the wins and shutouts I need to remain competitive in those categories.

In short, I'm still very undecided on this pick.

[Pengwin7]

In short, I'm still very undecided on this pick.

Well, maybe we can help.
Do you still have access to last year's standings?
(or does anybody have access to a Roto league final standings)

I would suggest that you locate a final standings.
You'll be able to work up some "case studies" where you combine:
*Lundqvist + Pavelec
*Lundqvist + Varlamov
*Lundqvist + Schneider
*Lundqvist + Neuvirth

Find out what your totals would be for W/SO/GAA/SV%.
Then find out how many points those would have given you in a previous year's standings.

The year-to-year totals in a league for Wins, SO, etc... will be pretty consistent. So you can get a pretty good idea what combination is best by comparing a goalie combo to actual end-of-year standings!

Try that.

[rticinelli]

Well, maybe we can help.
Do you still have access to last year's standings?
(or does anybody have access to a Roto league final standings)

I would suggest that you locate a final standings.
You'll be able to work up some "case studies" where you combine:
*Lundqvist + Pavelec
*Lundqvist + Varlamov
*Lundqvist + Schneider
*Lundqvist + Neuvirth

Find out what your totals would be for W/SO/GAA/SV%.
Then find out how many points those would have given you in a previous year's standings.

The year-to-year totals in a league for Wins, SO, etc... will be pretty consistent. So you can get a pretty good idea what combination is best by comparing a goalie combo to actual end-of-year standings!

Try that.

You're exactly right... had this in mind, but was too lazy (or too busy at the moment, rather) to do the leg work. I'll have to do this tonight when I get home... that will likely make my decision for me.

Thanks again.

[rticinelli]

Just doing a quick glance at the numbers from last season, it looks like I stand to gain much more from adding Pavelec-like stats than I would from Schneider-like numbers. In other words, the drop off in GAA and Sv% is far less from Pavelec's numbers (we're talking 1-3 points in the standings per category) than the dropoff in W and SO from Schneider's (in the range of 4-8 points per category).

Again, that's just by looking at the league standings and using Lundy's + Pavelec/Schneider numbers from last year. I'll have to do a little more in depth and exact calculations later, but looks like I'm leaning towards a starter as my #2.

[dmvincent]

I'm trying to pick out the best available goalie for my next pick as a #2 goalie. Below is a list of remaining options I find interesting. Yahoo roto league with W, GAA, Sv% and shutouts. I'm trying to weigh the benefits/drawbacks between going after a top backup like Schneider vs. a starter like Backstrom. Again, this will be my #2 goalie (Lundqvist is my #1)... limited keeper league (league scoring/settings and my protection list are in my sig)... I am going for the championship this season. We can only keep 1 goalie every year and Lundqvist is my guy, so this goalie's sole purpose to me will be to help me win the championship this year. I'm not as concerned about "future value" or "potential trade value" as much as I am the raw stats he will earn for my team this season. Thoughts?

Niklas Backstrom
Jose Theodore
Semyon Varlamov
Ondrej Pavelec
Devan Dubnyk
Jonathan Bernier
Cory Schneider
Evgeni Nabokov
Michal Neuvirth

Or, would it be better to hold off on a #2 goalie with the slim pickens' that are left and go after one of the available forwards (i.e. Jagr, Pominville, Stafford, etc)?

p.s. Hi Craig.

I think Backstrom is a good bet to bounce back, otherwise Pavelec and Dubnyk are the best options.

[rticinelli]

This is a dumbed-down way of looking at respective value between a goalie like Pavelec and the highest-rated available forward (according to Dobber), Brassard. Brass is worth ~85 points according to Dobber, while Pavelec is worth ~120 points. I know there are several other factors to take into consideration (positional and statistical needs, for example), but this early in the draft I gotta go with the best value pick. Pavelec's ~120 value puts him firmly in Alexander Semin territory for a skater comparison. Even if I think a guy like Jagr, Pomminville or Stafford will out-perform Dobber's prediction, I do not think any of those guys will be in Semin-territory.

So, I've made one decision... this pick will be a goalie!

[JHM]

and thus... when you change your mind you can ask for a Semin!

[rticinelli]

Backstrom was taken the pick before me. I'm up now, running the numbers.

This is what I'm thinking after doing a quick glance of the numbers:

-I'm hoping to get 35, 2.30, .920, 6 from Lundqvist
-Would like 25, 2.70, .915, 3 from my #2, so need a starter
-Would like 10, 2.30, .918, 1 from my #3, so eyeing an elite backup

This would give me a baseline of 70, 2.45, .918, 10, with the potential for more in the wins and shutout categories. I think it's reasonable to expect those numbers from Lundqvist, Pavelec/Varlamov, and Schneider/Neuvirth/Bernier. So, just deciding between Pavelec and Varlamov, leaning towards Pavelec.

[rticinelli]

~comment removed. Monday morning... I am an idiot and was not paying attention to details.~

The great part of this edit/comment is it was actually Tuesday morning.