Definition of a tier one goalie?

[Magicstew]

Good question would be, what is a tier one goalie?

Play 60 games a year, minimum?
Win 35 games, minimum?
Save % - 900+, minimum?
5 SO's, minimum?

They should be able to put up these stats for the next 3-5 years?
I know there is a thread on who are the tier 1 goalies
Any other thoughts out there?

[4T2]

I would say you are pretty close with your description.

SV% should be at least over .915 though. Shut-outs should probably be around 6.

Also, you should only look at the next 3 years tops. It is impossible to judge anything beyond that.

Of course, these qualifications change depending on league settings and scoring cats but you've got a fairly good base set out.

[Rangers44]

Imo consistency is the biggest factor. Every year there are 10+ goalies with relatively equal high end stat lines, one or two of which previous to the season are not considered starters (Ie Borbrosky, Crawford 2010, Howard, Rask 2009, and so on). But an elite goalie is the one who remains at the top of those lists year in and year out.

Moreover, a tier one goalie is one which buts up consistent stats on a week to week basis, not just during the season which is important in H2H leagues. The last thing you want is a 7-0 blowout against your goalie during the last week of your leagues playoffs.

Lastly, the stats that must be met IMO include:
65+ starts
35+ Wins
2.50 GAA or less
.910+ SA%
and 5+ shutouts

In the span of a goalies career, he cannot consistently hit 5 of 5 of these vaules however the goalies who have done so many times and maintain values in or near these levels include:

Luongo
Lundqvist
Miller
Brodeur (aging and thus leaving the list)
Rinne (after last year has entered the list)
Price (see Rinne + pedigree (only goalie with only 2 elite seasons on list))

Goalies who are good but cannot consistently factor in all cats include:

MAF ( other than last year SA% has always been lower)
Kipper (see MAF but amazing workhorse)
Quick ( Starts will be in question and not enough elite seasons yet)
Ward (should be on but GAA lower and injured season keeping him off)
Brysgalov ( Only 2 elite seasons under-belt thus far but most ready to make the jump)

[Jason_Banks]

There is a little massageing of these Credentials too... a top Teir Goalie can play on a bad team, lowering his win/SO totals, upping his GAA and lowering his SV%... But the goalie will still maintain solid #s while playing those 60-65 games on a bad team and give that team a chance every night...

Tomas Vokoun in Nashville and Florida was top tier dispite only seeing only 11 playoff games in 8 years... (I believe he is leaving top Tier status now, but will post solid #s in Washington because of the team in front of him)

Olaf Kolzig was a top tier goalie on a low-mid level team for 7 years, but very few gave him that credit.

Nicklas Backstrom is quietly a Top Tier Goalie from a bad team, but durability is starting to take that status from him...

Kari Lehtonen is also there, when healthy and he has never played on a legit team.

Rick Dipietro a few years ago was well on the way to that status, we all know that fell off the rails... Now he's a draft in the final round if you like rolling the dice...

In closeing: 60+ games and consistantly giving your team the chance to win every night and stealing some games to me = Top Teir goalie... GAAs, SV%s they work themselves out, Win and SO totals don't matter that much... All the stats do is rank where you want to draft these guys, but if you have one be it Lundqvist or Backstrom, you know you have a solid reliable goalie... and if you own 2 of them you only need to carry 2 goalies all season and wory bout offence.

[Jason_Banks]

Also I must disagree on Bryzgalov, He is top Tier... he's had 4 good starting years since he was Backup for a Stanley Cup...

Your Top Tier List/rankings looks somewhere close to:

Lundqvist
Loungo
Miller
Backstrom
Bryzgalov
Price
Lehtonen
Vokoun
Fleury
Rinne
Ward
Brodeur

This list has more to do with consistancy and what you know your gonna get from these goalies than thier Numbers. Basically Lundqvist is less likely to have a bad game than Loungo and follow the list down...

Rangers mentioned Brodure is leaving that list, and if you ever watch Brodeur last 2 years consistancy is all over the place, but he still has those Magical games several time a season...

Kipper doesnt hit the list for me because one game he is all dominate, the next night he is afraid of beachballs and looks like a tottaly different goalie. He has the skills, the Talent, but you never know what your gonna get night to night... Fleury/Ward suffer from that, but not to the level that I can exclude them, as through a bad night they will battle, Kipper just mails it in and your looking as a big crooked #5-7

[Shoeless]

I'm not sure that defining a guy as Tier 1 based on absolute numbers is workable - if 5 is the cutoff for shutouts then Luongo doesn't make the grade based on last year. I wonder whether a rating system based on W, GAA, SV% and Shutouts might not be a better way to go?

[SeaDawg]

You can't only look at numbers to determine who the best goalies in the league are. However, for the purposes of fantasy hockey, we don't care if a goalie is good. All we care about are the numbers he puts up, so we have to make a distinction between being a good goalie and being a good "fantasy" goalie.

For example, Vokoun has been one of the best goalies in the league for years now, but he has rarely had numbers (especially the Wins) to be considering a tier 1 fantasy goalie, until now that he has found a plum job in Washington.

That said, beyond this season, what can we expect from Vokoun? If he doesn't re-sign with Washington, is he still a tier 1 goalie? What about Thomas in 2 years? Or Rask? Rask, I believe, is likely one of the most talented goalies in the NHL, but I wouldn't consider him a tier 1 goalie.

You also have to project numbers a bit. Halak, for example, didn't put up great numbers last year in St. Louis, but most people think St. Louis is on the verge of becoming a very good team. In turn, Halak's numbers will improve to the point where I will consider him a tier 1 goalie.

The important factor is that a goalie's numbers are tied to the team he plays for. Nashville will always have a goalie in their system with good numbers across the board. Florida's goalies might have good save%, but poor Win totals. Fleury will likely have great Win totals, but his peripherals won't be as good as maybe Pavelec's (even if Pavelec plays for a far weaker team).

[horrorfan]

I think defining a tier one goalie depends on each manager's league categories. For example, I don't like shutouts so I wouldn't include it. As well, everyone values goalies differently so randomly picking a cutoff might not work for everyone. You could say .915SV%+, I could say .920+.

However, if you make your own projections for the top goalies, perhaps, and this is just off the top of my head, those who are good with stats can work out a way using significant differences etc to identify which goalies are better than others, and that way could more easily define tiers. Perhaps only two or three goalies a season will come out as being top tier. Perhaps four or five, or even eight.

Not sure if it would work, but at least it would be based on the numbers compared to each other, rather than arbitrarily chosen ones.

[Pengwin7]

Tier I Goalies:
My personal definition: "A goalie on a playoff-caliber team that has absolutely no risk of losing his #1 goalie spot during the regular season. Goalie will also be top 20 in SV%.".

My Tier I Goalies for 2011-2012 are SIX:
Lundqvist, Rinne, Luongo, Miller, Price, and Bryzgalov

Note #1:
I don't have Montreal pegged to make the playoffs... but I think they'll finish 9th or 10th at worst and teams that have a good shot at the playoffs are "playoff-caliber" still in my mind. Nashville also sort of fits here. Not a lock for the playoffs, but they'll be in contention for sure.

Note #2:
I noticed today that Dobber's guide has Montreal pegged for 41 wins & Carey Price pegged for 42 wins. Very interesting.

[bondon]

Forgive me, I did not read everyone's post through thoroughly but I did skim through them very quickly.

This is something that I've been thinking about for awhile...and the more I thought about it the more I leaned towards the conclusion that you really can't separate goalies into objective "Tiers".

Like horrorfan mentioned, it comes down to league settings. I mean if I am in a 12 team h2H league with a 2 goalie start minimum do I really need a guy who will play 70 games+ a year? No not necessarily, I need a guy that will play a decent amount (maybe 58-63 GS per year), but will pour out an efficient W/L ratio, GAA, SV% and decent SO's, etc.

I mean you could always evaluate the goaltenders' skills and formulate a ranking based on that, but again it will be subjective there too. One might like one thing about a goaltender better than another thing.

In a league that counts peripherals, I don't consider guys like Neimi or even Fleury for that matter to be Tier 1, but then if you flip it around to a W/SO league, then they both become elite goaltenders.

The important thing is just to know each goaltenders' strengths and weaknesses and basically come to your own conclusions on draft day I feel.

[Shoeless]

Pengwin - by that definition I would think Quick for sure and quite likely Fleury, Crawford, and Niemi arguably qualify. Hiller and Ward have to be right on the bubble as well.

Bondon - well said - too often I think fantasy hockeyists try and create rules for ranking that at best are imperfect anyway you distill them.

There are simply too many anomolies year over year to be sure - Thomas, Steve Mason, Price, Rask are guys that particularly come to mind.

[Pengwin7]

Pengwin - by that definition I would think Quick for sure and quite likely Fleury, Crawford, and Niemi arguably qualify. Hiller and Ward have to be right on the bubble as well.

re: Ward
Good mercy he's close. The SV% is always there and Carolina is typically playoff-caliber.
The reason I don't include him is that Carolina was LAST in the league last year in giving up shots on goal. Something like 32 per game they gave up. It is a terrible, terrible defense. I expect almost every team in the EASTERN conference to be improved this year. Has Carolina kept pace with other team's improvements? It doesn't seem like it to me.

re: Fleury.
I own him. But he has been sub top 20 in SV% before. I think he lacks some full-season mental motivation since he has a Cup. PIT is going to make the playoffs and he seems to let in too many questionable goals. In a W/SO league, I like him as almost ELITE. In most H2H leagues with SV%, he's not there.

re: Crawford.
I own him too. Too many of us think of CHI as a lock for the playoffs because we remember the CUP team. But CHI has pretty awful depth and their defensive core is not entirely strong. Many goalies in recent years have struggled in the first full year as a true, annointed, bonafide #1 goalie (Steve Mason, Jimmy Howard, Jaro Halak... Tuukka Rask to start last season). I'm rooting for Crawford but it is WAY too early to call him Tier I.

re: Quick.
He's probably closest to this group... but everybody is familar Bernier's skill. If Quick struggles for a 5-game stretch and Bernier shines and then LA gets an offer of a couple veterans at the trade deadline for Quick - is there a chance they do it for a CUP run? There is enough doubt for me to not call him Tier I. He probably will be #1 all year... but I'm not betting my bank account.

re: Niemi.
He's growing on me too... but in Chicago he emerged as the starter (without pressure). Last year in San Jose, the expectations were also low - nobody expected him to replace Nabokov. Expectations will be there THIS year with the new contract & Nabokov no longer a memory. This will be his first real year going into the season as the bonafide, default, expected #1 goalie for his team (see Crawford explanation)

Summary:
Ward... NO because I doubt Carolina as playoff-caliber.
Fleury... NO because of SV%
Crawford/Niemi/Quick... NO because of slight doubt in their #1 foothold

[SeaDawg]

There are simply too many anomolies year over year to be sure - Thomas, Steve Mason, Price, Rask are guys that particularly come to mind.

just think for a minute of the roller-coaster those named goalies have gone through, in terms of their perceived value

at one point Thomas was a hero, then Rask, now back to Thomas

Mason after his rookie season was being considered one of the top goalies in the NHL and Mason owners could have gotten a small ransom for him

Price's battle with Halak is well known, and at one point Price was waiver fodder in one of my leagues. Now he is the elite of the elite

[grindin griers]

I think you can still do tiers on a personal level. If you find people with the same league setup then it helps. It also helps to see what people do in different leagues because then you just have to adjust accordingly to your own league, which isn't too much trouble IMO.

Haven't started making my tiers yet (waiting for the Yahoo rankings to come out since my leagues are usually just one year H2H) but I would consider doing them as follows:

Look at the different stats of all the goaltenders playing over the past few years. Take into account all the situations they played in during those years and come up with a reasonable projection for the coming year based on their current situation.

Once you have projections its mostly all stats from here. Go down the line and look at the difference between each goalie relative to each stat and find where the biggest drop offs occur relative to the drop off in stats from the top to the bottom (bottom would be the last goalie you see being picked based on number of goalie positions and teams in league). Then seperate your tiers at these points and have a small ranking system within each tier.

It looks like a lot of work and probably will be but it will be entertaining at the same time.

Other factors I will take into account are the yahoo rankings because I don't play in a very competitive league and someone always get fooled by these. I also look at previous drafts and who likes to draft goalies when (One of the GMs in my league always drafts 3 goalies in a row from rounds 6-8 (oh and people normally draft goalies late in my league))

Anyway can't wait for Yahoo rankings to come out!

[Shoeless]

Pengwin - you make a rule then make exceptions based on your subjectivity - come on.

Schneider threatens Luongo so why is Quick different? Nashville is more of a playoff contender than Carolina - history doesn't support that. Fleury has been in the top 20 in save percentage the same number of times as Miller has over the past 4 seasons. And finally you are dreaming if you think Niemi is threatened - Stanley Cup out of no where and the next season 35 wins and .920 sv% - Shittymaki was .896 last season!!