Roloson Projection?

[DarthVain]

What do you think is possible for GP, Wins, SO?

Do you think Smith will eat into his games?

How long until he retires?

[ross10019]

What do you think is possible for GP, Wins, SO?

Do you think Smith will eat into his games?

How long until he retires?

Smith's in Phoenix now, Roloson's backup is Mathieu Garon.

I see a 2 to 1 split, so say Roloson starts about 55 games and Garon the rest.

Roloson's numbers should be decent, figure 30-35 wins with 2.50/0.915. He had 4 shutouts in just 34 games last year so the potential is there for him to have 7 or 8 over a full season, but I would guess around 5.

He is in fantastic shape for his age (mentally and physically) but he is only signed for 1 more year with the Lightning. I can easily see him sign for another year in Tampa or elsewhere after this year. Expecting more than 2 more years is a bit much, as he'll be 44 at the start of the 13/14 season, but he is physically capable of continuing - still, you'd expect he'd retire by that time.

Tampa's goalie of the future is Tokarski but he's far from a sure thing and I'm sure Yzerman is going to be watching his AHL development closely to determine what he needs to do in 2012/13. I could see him going with Roloson for another year given the obvious fit, or if Tokarski's development stalls he could start shopping for a proven and younger vet.

[bondon]

Generally agree with Ross's numbers. Might bump his GAA down a bit to 2.60 and I would say he'd be closer to 30 wins than 35 but honestly at this point i'm just splitting hairs lol.

[TavesSoul]

Ross hit the nail on the head, although I actual expect 60-65 starts, although I could certainly see a 55-35 split as that's around the GPs that Garon usually gets. The rest is splitting hairs (2.55 GAA, 7 SOs) from my personal projections. Great analysis from Ross.

[GoHabsGo]

I have Roloson getting:

50 games
30 wins
4 shutouts

Garon will not take the starter spot from Roloson.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Roloson should start about 75% of games. Garon is the kind of back-up that teams like to have and GMs should not fear, as he really is not a viable candidate to unseat Roloson from the starting job. Given that Roloson is only signed this year, however, it is possible that if he is doing just okay that Tampa could explore upgrading at the trade deadline. But Roloson played so well in the playoffs last season that a deadline move likely is not a serious threat.

All in all, Roloson should give you GAA and SV% numbers similar to what Cam Ward and Tomas Vokoun have put up in recent seasons, although probably with a bit lower SV%. His shutout numbers won't be great, but wins should be in or near the top 10 for the league given how often he'll play and the talent of the Tampa team.