Panthers Tandem ?

[Herman Hessian]

Been laying out some trades in my league (see signature) trying to land an upgrade on my first round pick (currently 12th). Was set on keeping Backstrom between the pipes until the following was suggested:

Backstrom and my 1st/#12 for Jose Theodore and his 1st/#4

I currently also have Clemmensen, and so could pretty much corner all of the Panther's starts behind their strengthened blue line corps if taking Jose.

There is also one team leaving the league, so their entire roster become free agents - and that includes Jimmy Howard, who was the reason I was looking at trading up in the first place.

The other potential downside is that I'd have to give up a currently proposed keeper to hold on to Clemmensen and keep the Fla pair in play - this would likely be MDZ, who I know is almost universally deemed to have crashed in value this year

So, a shot at getting Howard, having the option to start a Panther every game and waving goodbye to the potential upside in Manhatten, or stay with the solid, unspectacular Nik B and hope that MDZ fulfills his potential ?

Surely the first option is the way to go - it won't take much to convince me -wha'd'you reckon ?

thanks for any input - much appreciated in advance !

[Dennis4022]

Yes the Panthers improved their team a lot but that still doesn´t make Theodore or Clemmensen any better. 6 out of 20 are goalies stats, i wouldn´t want these two to be my only hope.

Keep Backstrom and try as hard as you can to get Howard, that will give you a much better chance to have a successfull season!

[bondon]

Oh god no, any trade that has Backstrom going one way and Theodeore coming back without a substantial improvement elsewhere is terrible.

You would be downgrading to get a "chance" at getting Howard...Howard is not a saving grace especially in a league that counts peripheral stats, until he can prove that he can maintain a degree of consistency.

Stick with Backstrom.

[Herman Hessian]

thanks for taking the time to reply, guys - i guess the reaction "oh god no" is pretty unambiguous - thanks for saving me from myself

reps to both - grateful for your thoughts

[bondon]

Wait I should have probably asked these questions first:

How many goalies do you start a night
How many goalies do you expect dropping back into the FA pool for redraft including Howard and who are they?

Pretty sure i'm going to stand by what I said given that its an 18 team league which means 18 goalies are guaranteed off the market basically to start, but I would like to know just in case there's a chance you could get a good goalie.
If you start two goalies per night then having another goalie + Theodore wouldn't be a bad thing because as it stands you're only guaranteed starts from Backstrom. Theodore may not be good but if you need the starts then you need the starts.

[Herman Hessian]

max two goalie starts per night - no limit to total amount over the course of the season

you can probably guarantee the top twenty to twenty five goalies being off the board at draft time barring teams folding and their rosters being freed up - that will see Howard, Ellis and Raycroft in the mix this Autumn joining such luminaries as Leclaire, LaBarbara, Auld, Budaj and the like - the league is very heavily weighted towards goalie points - seventeen of them racked up over 200pts during the course of last season, with only five skaters topping that mark, hence the tendency to hang on to goalies !

if i use last season's PPG production and project for 2011/12, one scenario where i make the trade sees theodore and clemmensen platooning the starts in Florida for me and generating 250 pts while howard makes 65 starts and scores 220

in the other shake up, lets say I stand pat and keep Nik B who stays healthier than last season, and makes 65 starts - good for 210 points, while clemm's 20 games for Fla glean 50

that's three goalies for 470 points in total, against two for 260 - the difference being one of those five elite +200 skaters, who it will be virtually impossible to draft !

on that basis, i guess it's a much closer call than it might have at first appeared ???

obviously, I'm basing this on 2010/11 points production, but I don't see a reason why any of the four goalies in question should produce at a lesser rate this time around - pretty much status quo in minnie and detroit, and no improvement for the other two guys would seem to be a conservative estimate, if anything...

[bondon]

That's interesting man, yeah it is a little more tighter than I originally thought I apologize. I don't think I have a full grasp on how your scoring works but I have a general idea, and I still don't think I would do it.

My main concern right here is that
A) You might be putting a little more stock in Florida than I would. Last year they were middle of the pack in GAA, and that was with an amazing tender in net (Vokoun).
Theodore and Clemmenson REALLY don't have my confidence right now. I definitely think that they're an improved team all around compared to last season but I don't know how many wins that will translate into.

By saying that three goalies will give you 470 points, I think that number is too high. That would mean you value Theodore giving you 210 which would make him equal to Backstrom which I'm not buying.

B) If goalies are as important as you say there are, I really don't see ANY shot whatsoever of you getting Howard at #4, when beyond that people will be picking from the likes of Ellis, Raycroft, LaBarbera, Auld (eww), Budaj (ewww), Leclaire (ewwww).

Out of that group LaBarbera and Ellis are the ones I would be looking at, but I really don't think I would downgrade Backstrom to Theodore in order to get one of those two guys.

I think what I would do is leave things as is and hope that someone like LaBarbera or Ellis falls down to #12. Those two could see a lot of starts next season depending on Smith's performance/health and Hiller's health

Really tough because like I said I don't fully understand the dynamics of the league and this involves a lot of projection with values associated I am not familiar with. Take what you think is helpful (if anything lol) from my post and formulate your own decision. Sorry if that doesn't help at all, interested to see if anyone else has something better for you.

[mister_mcgoo]

Listen to b0ndon he's giving you the straight dope

[Princeton]

Oh god no, any trade that has Backstrom going one way and Theodeore coming back without a substantial improvement elsewhere is terrible.

You would be downgrading to get a "chance" at getting Howard...Howard is not a saving grace especially in a league that counts peripheral stats, until he can prove that he can maintain a degree of consistency.

Stick with Backstrom.

BonDon's right.

And........

Tallon is TRYING to lose. Wake up. Alert. Warning. The only goalie you would want in FLA is Markstrom and even then he isn't fantasy worthy until after next year's draft.

That year most of the draft picks will play.

Markstrom
Huberdeau
YAKUPOV (1st overall)
Gudbranson full time
Howden
Bjugstad
Grimaldi
etc......

Theodore is crap. And Tallon knows it.

[Shoeless]

I think you have this all backwards - trade Clemmenson to him for a pick or pick upgrade.

[letnry]

I think you have this all backwards - trade Clemmenson to him for a pick or pick upgrade.

Leave it to the man to give some solid sound advice there!