Steve Ott and the Richards-less Dallas Stars

[TwoPuckCanuck]

This is my first (well actually second - see at the end for a link ) attempt at doing a player write up. My first was subpar, I'll admit, so I'll try again. Give me criticism, feedback, thoughts or just a big DISAGREE. Anything helps and there is rep to be had! So here we go.

As a Leafs fan, all that I've been thinking about lately is Brad Richards. Can you blame me? He's been the talk of the town throughout the playoffs and now coming in towards the opening of the FA market. Everyone on the forum is predicting where he'll go and who will benefit on his new team (Gaborik? Kessel?). Others saying Eriksson and Benn's numbers will or won't be affected. Ribeiro becoming a potential team point leader. There has been no lack of talk.

Needless to say, the move of Brad Richards will have a ripple affect, changing the dynamic and structure of a few NHL teams. While others are looking at his future team and potential linemates or his former team and past linemates, I'm looking a bit deeper. Down the depth chart I go and there he is; Steve Ott.

Ah yes, Steve Ott. An agitator. A nuisance. A pest. An offensive talent?

We're all aware of Ott's role on the Dallas Stars, but his time has been split between first line duty, fourth line duty and everything in between. This season, he played 25.6% of his games on the 3rd line, 21.8% of his games on the 2nd line and 15.4% on the 1st line. So where does the natural center fit in? He's been playing on the left wing for some time, but still reverts back to his center position depending on the linemates. It seems to be a consensus that Ribeiro will get the first line center job, so is Ott the ideal player for second line duty? Let's take a look.

Steve Ott was selected 25th Overall, in the first round of the 2000 NHL Entry Draft, by the Dallas Stars. A former World Junior medalist, he spent another three seasons between the OHL and the AHL. He started his NHL career in the 2002-2003 and has only been sent to the minors for a small three game conditioning stint after an injury. It was only after this conditioning stint that Ott started to chip in offensively. Over the last 4 seasons, Ott has contributed some well rounded numbers;

---------- GP -- G -- A -- Pts -- PIM
2007-08 - 73 - 11 - 11 - 22 - 147
2008-09 - 64 - 19 - 27 - 46 - 135
2009-10 - 73 - 22 - 14 - 36 - 153
2010-11 - 82 - 12 - 20 - 32 - 183
TOTAL - 292 - 64 - 72 - 136 - 618

Amassing 136 pts in 292 GP along with 618 PIMs, Ott is what I would call an elite enforcer with an offensive touch. A 0.47 pts/gp pace leaves much to be desired, but in any league that counts PIMs, the guy is a great addition. Over those 4 seasons, Ott's managed to add 34 PPP, 33 of which have come in the last 3 seasons. Now the question remains, will he be promoted in his offensive role?

When looking at Dallas' top six forwards for next season, we see that it goes along the lines of Eriksson, Ribeiro, Benn and Morrow. Depending on whether Jamie Langenbrunner resigns or not, he would be on that list, but that leaves Ott or Wandell to break top six. In my opinion, Wandell isn't the player they would want on their top 6, but Ott's offensive touch and proven role when playing there is something of interest. Looking at their prospects to come, there is some talent, but no abundance of NHL ready players to be taking a top 6 position. What are we left with? Steve Ott.

There is always the scenario, which is likely to be explored, that the Stars sign some free agents to fill these voids. At this moment though, it is well known that they have management issues, so I wouldn't look for it to be on the opening day of free agency. As that pool dries up, they may look inward and see that Ott could be of value playing an offensive role.

Will Steve Ott set a career high in points and break the 50-point plateau? Surely he will be given the opportunity to do so and we can only hope that he performs. So keep your eyes on Ott and if your league counts PIMs (as mine does), then I suggest picking him up. Taking last year's totals and the pool in my sig categories, Ott earned 97.75 fantasy pts, tied with Rick Nash and Alexander Semin. Our pool does value PIMs rather high, but all things considered, it's still shocking.

This write up is merely an observation of what the future could hold in Dallas. In my eyes, its a refreshing change from the Richards/Benn/Ribeiro/Eriksson talk.

Thanks Dobber Nation.



link to first attempt - http://www.dobberhockey.com/index.ph...d.php&t=104502

[bondon]

Great post TPC, I've always considered Ott to be like a poor-man's multi-cat stud. He doesn't have the high profile of guys like Downie, Hartnell, Lucic, Clowe, etc. but he still gives pretty consistent output in many categories and chips in with pretty consistent point production

It will be interesting to see what he is able to do this season and to see what opportunities are provided to him from the get-go.

[Savages]

great write up. If your pool like mine also counts hits he had 252 making worth even more. He also added 4 shp making him the perfect 4th center to go with my E.Staal Backstrom and Tavares. lol

Its nice to have write up on other players other then just the stars

Good job

[Laendarian]

Interesting take, although I think that he will slot in as the #3 C with spot duty on the 1st or 2nd line as a LW. As you mentioned I think that Ribiero is pretty close to a sure thing for the #1C gig, and at worst he'll slot in at C2, and I just can't see Ott impressing enough to bypass Benn, who I think is going to get a hard look at that #2C.

[TwoPuckCanuck]

Interesting take, although I think that he will slot in as the #3 C with spot duty on the 1st or 2nd line as a LW. As you mentioned I think that Ribiero is pretty close to a sure thing for the #1C gig, and at worst he'll slot in at C2, and I just can't see Ott impressing enough to bypass Benn, who I think is going to get a hard look at that #2C.

Good point. I would tend to side with you, but Benn was playing the wing for a good portion of the season, similar to how Ott has now been pushed into a winger role with Wandell at 3rd line C. I pegged Benn to be a first line winger and some split duty as second line winger (depending on production). But like you, can see him as 2nd line C, if he's on the 2nd line. We'll see what happens, this is after all is a "What Could Happen" type scenario. Unfortunately, the NHL doesn't want my say on anything.... yet.. haha

[tgraveline]

Ott has always been a great pick up in my league and I think this is a good write-up. He could crack the top six and that would only make him more valuable.

[Rad64]

Great post TPC, I've always considered Ott to be like a poor-man's multi-cat stud. He doesn't have the high profile of guys like Downie, Hartnell, Lucic, Clowe, etc. but he still gives pretty consistent output in many categories and chips in with pretty consistent point production

It will be interesting to see what he is able to do this season and to see what opportunities are provided to him from the get-go.

One reason Ott loses some consideration is that he plays center. Hi stock would rise quite a bit if he had winger status.

Ott has has a few very good runs in the past when the injury bug has hit the Stars forcing him into a top 6 role.

[Excelsior]

Nice writeup & perspective TPC.

[tgraveline]

One reason Ott loses some consideration is that he plays center. Hi stock would rise quite a bit if he had winger status.

His center stock makes him very valuable in leagues that count PIMs and FOWs. So in some leagues he's more valuable because he's a center.

[Pengwin7]

Great write-up.
I had actually took a close, hard look at Ott this year and made a trade for him in my dynasty salary cap league:

I got: Steve Ott (~$3.5m), Brendan Morrow (~$4m), PA Parenteau (~$1.25m)
I traded: JVR (<$1m) & Z.Boychuk (<$1m)

Not only is Ott a beast in PIM, but he finished with an incredible 644 face-off wins.
644 FOW is good for 27th in the NHL. And he won them at a rate of 56.6%!
Q: Do you know how many players with more FOW had a better rate:
A: Five. Just five. (Toews, Kesler, Malhotra, Stoll, and Gaustad)

So, if your league counts FOW, Ott is a must-own... probably top 30 forward.

50.6% B.Richard's FO win percentage.
46.6% Ribeiro's FO win percentage.
43.1% Benn's FO win percentage.

Coaches want their good faceoff guys out there often.
Especially in an offensive zone PP... you need that puck ASAP.

Ott's proficiency on the dot may even lead to him playing in front of the net on the PP.
1. To be a nuisance (a la Holmstrom)
2. Because he can win that important first faceoff.

A great guy to BUY on.
I think he'll grab that #2 C position, possibly with Benn LW, Eriksson RW.

[Steffen]

Great writeup. I love these pieces on 2nd-line/3rd-line tweeners.

In Ott's case, I don't know if I'd count on him keeping up the PIMs, as it seems to me that as offensive responsibility goes up, PIMs go down. Still, as an Ott-owner and -keeper, I expect him to remain a permanent must-start in my deep league.

[dmvincent]

Definitely agree, but I think Ribeiro is going to do very well as the number one pivot limiting his "upside" or possible 60-65 point production. I do think if he played an offensive role on the top line he'd easily have 60-65 points between Eriksson and Benn.

[TheRook]

great writeup. I think Ott is a great multi-cat guy who a lot of people overlook. With Richards leaving it could be just what Ott needs. If he secures a top 6 role i think he could hit around 60 pts, if he bounces back and forth i think he will be between 45-50 pts but will contribute in FOW,PIMS and Hits.

[wminogue1980]

good write up, I was throwing the idea of taking Ott in our draft this season. This write up and some of the comments make me feel a little more confident in maybe taking him since our league also counts FOW.

[TwoPuckCanuck]

Great write-up.
I had actually took a close, hard look at Ott this year and made a trade for him in my dynasty salary cap league:

I got: Steve Ott (~$3.5m), Brendan Morrow (~$4m), PA Parenteau (~$1.25m)
I traded: JVR (<$1m) & Z.Boychuk (<$1m)

Not only is Ott a beast in PIM, but he finished with an incredible 644 face-off wins.
644 FOW is good for 27th in the NHL. And he won them at a rate of 56.6%!
Q: Do you know how many players with more FOW had a better rate:
A: Five. Just five. (Toews, Kesler, Malhotra, Stoll, and Gaustad)

So, if your league counts FOW, Ott is a must-own... probably top 30 forward.

50.6% B.Richard's FO win percentage.
46.6% Ribeiro's FO win percentage.
43.1% Benn's FO win percentage.

Coaches want their good faceoff guys out there often.
Especially in an offensive zone PP... you need that puck ASAP.

Ott's proficiency on the dot may even lead to him playing in front of the net on the PP.
1. To be a nuisance (a la Holmstrom)
2. Because he can win that important first faceoff.

A great guy to BUY on.
I think he'll grab that #2 C position, possibly with Benn LW, Eriksson RW.

Great additional stats Penguin. My league doesn't consider FOW, so it definitely did slip my mind.

Thanks for all the feedback guys, glad you liked it. Rep is on its way!