Pavelec - East vs West

[holdUP]

Hey Justin,

I'd like to get your thoughts on Pavelec's move to Winnipeg, assuming they'll be put in the Western Conference.

Should I expect an adjustment period similar to Halak's move from MTL to STL?

Thanks!

Tim

[GoalieGuild]

I think you can expect some kind of adjustment period, but I wouldn't relate it to Halak in any way. I know you were just using him as an example, but just to be clear, totally different goalies in different situations.

I'm looking at his lifetime stats against Western Conference teams and it's a mixed bag:

vs Calgary 0-1-0 | 3.08 20-23 .870%
vs Chicago 0-0-0 | 3.71 72-80 .900%
vs CBJ 0-3-0 | 2.37 85-92 .924%
vs Colorado 1-1-0 | 2.49 54-59 .915%
vs Dallas 1-1-0 | 5.82 60-71 .845%
vs Detroit 2-0-0 | 0.50 72-73 .986%
vs LA Kings 1-0-0 | 0.00 38-38 1.000%
vs Minnesota 1-0-0 | 1.00 32-33 .970%
vs Nashville 1-0-0 | 2.40 36-40 .900%
vs Phoenix 0-1-0 | 2.91 60-66 .909%
vs San Jose 0-0-0 | 0.00 12-12 1.000%
vs St. Louis 1-1 0 | 2.61 104-112 .929%
vs Vancouver 0-1-0 | 4.05 34-38 .895%

As you can see, it's all over the map. Unbeaten against Detroit but winlelss against CBJ, eventhough he has good numbers *7GA in 3 games.

I think this is a situation where Pavelec will have to get used to the style differences and the pace and flow of each team in the conference. I know that Pavelec liked Atlanta, and I'd have to think that Winnipeg, especially compared to Chris Mason, is not a comfortable place to just up and move to.

There will be an adjustment period. How long it will last and how big of an impact it will have is going to be part how he mentally prepares and part how he plays in the pre-season. Entering the regular season with some confidence and good outings will be huge for him.

I think this is a tactic in which you can play him down in your league, but get him in a bit of a lower round, maybe 5th or 6th and make him your second goalie and have some good confidence knowing he's an elite goaltender that is still just getting better.

Kinda like Halak, Iguess. He was bad this year but everyone knows he's still elite ... was just off and not comfy playing 60 games and carrying a heavy workload. No big deal! Sucked for his owners in a one year league but nothing that is crushing to his long-term value!