Final Day, Final Decision - Who To Start/Sit?

[Dean Youngblood]

One year Yahoo! Pool and I am down to the final day and have a tough goaltender situation.

The Goaltender Stats are currently:

ME: 4 WINS 1.85 GAA 0.941 SV% 1 SO
HIM: 3WINS 2.89 GAA 0.901 SV% 0 SO

I am currently winning all goalie stats but he's got me in most player stats (A, PIM, PPP, SOG) so I need the G stats.

His Goalies Today: MA Fleury vs.ATL and Khabibulin vs COL

My Goalies Today: Dubnyk vs. COL and Hedberg vs. BOS (i picked them up yesterday just in case)


Should I start my tenders? I am pretty sure he will be starting his as he has nothing to lose and might as well try for a shutout and/or goalie win

I currently lead the week 6-4. Who should I Start? Dubnyk? Hedberg? Both? None

Thanks.

[bondon]

Bleh, had this whole spiel about why I would roll Dubnyk today and then I checked LWL to find Khabibulin is playing.

This is a tough one, I would most likely bench Hedberg today because i'm really not liking the Bruins matchup, but if Fleury does start against ATL then you're likely going to end up tying wins (he's 12-4 against them), or losing if Khabibulin actually plays well for once.

What I would do is probably wait a little closer to 3pm and see if FLeury is in net. If he is then I would likely roll with Hedberg and pray.

Good luck man

[metaldude26]

There's no way in hell I'd risk that. He's not coming back in GAA and Save% unless you really shit the bed. Odds are also against him scooping wins and shutouts. He has Khabi going for sure, as confirmed by LWL but Fleury is still up in the air and since the Pens have nothing to battle for I figure they could start Johnson no problem. If you sit your goalies, at worst you are looking at a tie in wins and shutouts so 4-4 overall. If you play them and something goes wrong you'll lose it all. Just sit em.

[Pengwin7]

It is worth your time to dig real deep on that stats in this one.

Case 1: He gets 2W, 0 SO
If he gets 2W, he flips wins on you and it is 5-5. Unfactored possibility of 2W = 25%.
Who owns the tie-breaker?
If you own the tie-breaker, then I'd definitely recommend sitting your goalies.
If he owns the tie-breaker, you need to go deeper on stat-crunching (see Case 3).

Case 2: He gets 1W & 1SO.
He'll steal two half categories. Again 5-5. Unfactored possibility of 1W + 1SO ~ (50%)(10%) = 5%
(Same steps as Case 1)

Case 3: You don't own tie-breaker. You decide to go with Hedberg (chance at 1W).
Gather all your goalie saves & GAA for the week. To really crap the bed, lets say Hedberg gives up 5 goals on 20 shots. Figure out what your final SV% & GAA is. Then, calculate his two cases above. (Case 1, 60 saves on 62 shots. Case 2, say 60/62 again. 30/32 + 30/30)

If there is a chance he can steal SV% or GAA on a bad Hedberg start, then NO WAY to you start him.

If you have so many goalie minutes that a bad Hedberg start is uncatchable, then yeah, you have nothing to lose and may as well start him.


Math time.

[Dean Youngblood]

He has Brent Johnston as well so he will get the PIT start for sure.

[metaldude26]

The good news for you is that Khabibulin has lost eight starts in a row, including one to Colorado. I still think you'll be fine not playing them.

[Dean Youngblood]

Right now, my gut says sit them. Going with that for now unless something changes before 3 pm. Wish the EDM game was at 1230 today

[metaldude26]

Hahaha, a nice 10:30 local start in Denver. I'm sure they wouldn't mind.

[bondon]

Hedberg is now confirmed on LWL. Jury is still out on Fleury/Johnson

[Dean Youngblood]

looks like Johnson gets the start for PIT. F it, it's only a free league with no one i know. I am rolling with Hedberg. Go Devils.

[metaldude26]

Gilbert in for the Oilers. A virtual lock to cough up a turnover leading to a goal.

[Dean Youngblood]

Welp, looks like my opponent wont be getting that Shutout. Johnson (PIT) and Khabibulin have both let in goals.

Nice.

[Dean Youngblood]

It looks like starting Hedberg was smart. His Khabibulin lost in OT so i should win all 5 goalie cats. He's dominating in player stats (I only lead by 2 in +/-, tied in goals). I need big games from Ott, Ribeiro, PMB, Robidas. He owns Richards and Benn :S

[Pengwin7]

DY - Update? Did you win?

[Dean Youngblood]

DY - Update? Did you win?

Wouldn't you like to know haha

I ended up playing Hedberg and it is a good thing that I did. We ended up in a dead tie.

I took all of the goalie cats (W, GAA, SV%, SO) and +- categorie
He took most of the player stats (G, A, PIM, PPP and SOG)

Dead tie.

We are still trying to determine what the tie-break was for our league. I think it was total points (which he would then win) and he thinks it is winning percentage between opponents (if so, I would win)

This final matchup was the tightest one I have ever been in. I dominated all year long so I am hoping that I ended up winning. He was making daily add/drops to maximize his player starts throughout the final week and I didn't realize until Friday so needless to say he killed me in player stats. Had I realized that we could still make roster moves I would've killed him

Thanks for the help guys. If I won (TBD) then I would have finished 1st in 2 of my 3 leagues.