crunch time...what do I do????

[hagarty]

ok guys so here it is... I'm currently winning my pool... barely... ahead by 5 points but with no real areas i can gain any more points...

my direct competition can potentially catch me by getting 6 points more than team C and D from here on out... and 4 assists more than team D and E....

I'm already going to get caught in saves total by a team that can't catch me overall...

so here's my great dilemna.... luongos shutout allowed me to move up in GAA sv% and shutouts... leaving me with the debate...

if I bench my goalies I guarantee i don't move back down in those categories... but I will get caught in total saves by my direct competition... a huge 2 point swing... however... any regression in quality stats will also cost me 1-2 points...

montoya against pit tonight is one of 4 remaining starts for me... do I do it????

I need the best quality starts I can get... I have that one today...
tomorrow I have montoya@PHI brodeur@NYR and anderson@BOS
sunday Brodeur vs Bos

I can likely avoid the 2 point swing on saves if I start 2 more games total... provided I get decent totals... should I utilize brodeur only? PIT needs a win to clinch division.. as does PHI the next day... so montoya might be in tough for both games... brodeur needs 2 wins to get to .500 for the year... but NYR is trying to hang on to playoff spot... and bos is a crap shoot either one goal or 6

what do I do????????

[andrewklassen]

If I bench my goalies I guarantee i don't move back down in those categories... but I will get caught in total saves by my direct competition... a huge 2 point swing... however... any regression in quality stats will also cost me 1-2 points...

So let me get this straight. If you bench your G you concede 2 points for sure [based on SV]. You can play your G against some questionable match-ups and ensure you don't lose the SV cat, but then you could possibly lose 1-2 points on some of the other peripherals.

I don't know...give me the sure thing over the 'maybe' any day. I don't want to guarantee I lose 2 points if the risk the other way is also 1-2 points lost. Pick the best match-ups and play your G.

I'd be tempted to play Montoya tonight. PIT will play a tight, defensive hockey game. Yeah, they might win, but it's unlikely the light up the scoreboard so your peripherals should be solid. After that I'd lean towards playing Brodeur against either opponent, but especially against the RAGS. I guess while there's no doubt the RAGS will bring their best game I think the chance that NJ could knock a division rival out of the playoffs will motivate them too and the RAGS aren't a big offensive team...see last night as an example.

Guessing stats and starts is always a little hit and miss, but I would play my G [not concede points up front]...taking Montoya tonight and Brodeur against NYR.

[hagarty]

cant argue with the logic... the problem i had was simply that i could lose those 1-2 points with a bad start...and still potentially lose saves overall... but i can also lose those points if someone else has a good last few games... worst of all is if i have a bad start and others have good ones... i could lose 3.5 points just in goalie categories... while my competition is almost a sure bet to gain 2-3 points in offensive cats... so basically a bad start will cost me the championship... whereas a good start, only helps me maintain a lead in total saves... with no potential to improve...

but i guess i'll just live and die by my goalies... overall they all have decent enough numbers... just gotta hope they perform at the level they have all year....

[andrewklassen]

while my competition is almost a sure bet to gain 2-3 points in offensive cats... so basically a bad start will cost me the championship... whereas a good start, only helps me maintain a lead in total saves... with no potential to improve...

I'm still wrestling with this.

You're trying to maintain a 5 point lead.
You're pretty sure you're going to lose 2-3 points in offensive cats.

Choice A: You don't play your G...concede 2 more points [4-5] and pray you win.
Choice B: You play your G and risk conceding anywhere from 0-3.5 points...on the bottom end of this you lose for sure.

I understand why option A is tempting, b/c you know up front what you're going to lose in G cats, but IMHO this cuts it too close to be a viable option. Choice A is playing not to lose. This is smart if you have the spread that your opposition can't cover, but this sounds too close to call...thus I don't like it.

I still prefer option B. Sure you may lose, but your options aren't horrible and I just don't like conceding 2 G points at the outset if you're already quite certain your going to give up 2-3 points on offense. I just don't see a choice for you, but to win or lose based on your G.

[Shoeless]

Play to win - figure out your best starts and go for it.

[hagarty]

just wish stupid schneider wasn't getting the start tomorrow... then i could roll with luongo and not worry about it....but then again... maybe it'll be a blessing in disguise... maybe lu woulda got lit for 5 goals... after all that... i forgot to hit submit on my roster change and had the window open till now... didn't actually put montoya in net after all... lol....

thanks for the advice anyways guys... lets hope that the pens light NYI up... but all the scorers have to be off teams that can't catch me hahaha

[hagarty]

and like i predicted, brodeurs start today fokked me outta the championship... lost 2.5 points cause of the bad game and still might lose more... I sure hope he starts tomorrow and has a better game... but I wager they sit him... luckily I have no roster moves left so I can't pick up hedberg as insurance... lets all collectively cross our fingers for a shutout tomorrow or a lot of high scoring games today for everyone elses goalies...