Keller, Boeser, Barkov - I'll Rep

[LeafsFan1967]

I just picked up Keller in a trade in my keeper, so I've now got all 3 of the guys mentioned above on my squad.

Keller will be my 4 yr going into next year, Barkov 3 and Boeser 2, and my group will be rounded out by Wheeler (2) and Zadina (rookie).

What are your thoughts on Keller, Boeser and Barkov going forward? I think Barkov is safest for this season, then probably Keller, followed by Boeser, but I think going into next year, Boeser will probably bounce back, Keller will take another step forward, and Barkov could be an 80-85 pt guy.

I know it's early in the season, but obviously I've read that people think Boeser will take a step back this season. He has shown life the past 2 games, 2 pts, and scored his 1st goal, so maybe that gets him going.

I've gone pretty young with my keepers (aside from Wheelers) but given they're not 18/19 year olds, I think my team will be competitive for a long time since these guys are only going to get better.

Wheeler is undervalued in fantasy still, so not looking to move him, unless maybe I get a guy a few years younger that is similar quality wise.

[HonkyTonkMan]

I just picked up Keller in a trade in my keeper, so I've now got all 3 of the guys mentioned above on my squad.

Keller will be my 4 yr going into next year, Barkov 3 and Boeser 2, and my group will be rounded out by Wheeler (2) and Zadina (rookie).

What are your thoughts on Keller, Boeser and Barkov going forward? I think Barkov is safest for this season, then probably Keller, followed by Boeser, but I think going into next year, Boeser will probably bounce back, Keller will take another step forward, and Barkov could be an 80-85 pt guy.

I know it's early in the season, but obviously I've read that people think Boeser will take a step back this season. He has shown life the past 2 games, 2 pts, and scored his 1st goal, so maybe that gets him going.

Boesser should get the most goals, but most likely the least points. For this year and probably next:

Barkov
Keller
Boesser

[LeafsFan1967]

Boesser should get the most goals, but most likely the least points. For this year and probably next:

Barkov
Keller
Boesser

In their best seasons, what would you peg their numbers at?

Barkov: 35 g, 50 a
Keller: 30 g, 60 a
Boeser: 40 g 30 a

And since you see Boeser as least pt upside but highest goals, how would these rankings look beyond next year?

[HonkyTonkMan]

In their best seasons, what would you peg their numbers at?

Barkov: 35 g, 50 a
Keller: 30 g, 60 a
Boeser: 40 g 30 a

And since you see Boeser as least pt upside but highest goals, how would these rankings look beyond next year?

Your numbers look accurate to me. The problem is, Keller has the most offensive potential but seriously lacks in teammates whereas Boeser and Barkov won't have that problem.

[LeafsFan1967]

Your numbers look accurate to me. The problem is, Keller has the most offensive potential but seriously lacks in teammates whereas Boeser and Barkov won't have that problem.

I don't disagree regarding Keller, but he put up 65 pts as a 19 year old with weak surrounding talent.

I think Galy will at least help, and they've got some other talented forwards, but yeah not anyone as good as what Florida or Vancouver have at the moment.

I moved away from assist heavy guys before (ie: Kuzy), but he's obviously still a stud, and now I've got 2 of the 3 guys I listed will be more assists than goals, but you know they'll put up lots of points so they can still be upper echelon fantasy assets, even in my format.

Boeser may get less pts, but with goals bump it pushes him up some.

Point per game upside or better (Keller/Barkov), and 40 goal upside guys don't grow on trees! I'm pretty fortunate to have all 3.

[HonkyTonkMan]

I don't disagree regarding Keller, but he put up 65 pts as a 19 year old with weak surrounding talent.

I think Galy will at least help, and they've got some other talented forwards, but yeah not anyone as good as what Florida or Vancouver have at the moment.

I moved away from assist heavy guys before (ie: Kuzy), but he's obviously still a stud, and now I've got 2 of the 3 guys I listed will be more assists than goals, but you know they'll put up lots of points so they can still be upper echelon fantasy assets, even in my format.

Boeser may get less pts, but with goals bump it pushes him up some.

Regarding Kuzy, he seems to be scoring goals going back to last year. I'm in a good heavy league and traded Kuzy, then got him back and thank God I did. He could score 40 it seems and I never would have thought that 2 years ago. Thought he was just a Backstrom clone. Kuzy is a top fantasy stud right now.

[LeafsFan1967]

Regarding Kuzy, he seems to be scoring goals going back to last year. I'm in a good heavy league and traded Kuzy, then got him back and thank God I did. He could score 40 it seems and I never would have thought that 2 years ago. Thought he was just a Backstrom clone. Kuzy is a top fantasy stud right now.

I moved him in a deal with Monahan where I got Benn, Guentzel and a pick upgrade (last year). Guentzel didn't really work out, but I did finish in the money last year, and now I've got Keller, so I'll take a 20 year old Keller over Kuzy or Benn, even though those guys aren't old. I mean if I was pushing for the title, like I felt I could win this year, different story but I got off to a slow start, and I'm just trying to be realistic and wanted to get Keller before he explodes, because we've probably seen peak Benn, and Kuzy while a bit younger, he's had 80+ pts, but I get rest of this season + 4 more with Keller, I wouldn't have had that with Benn, and Kuzy I think was a 3 yr when I moved him, but I still like Keller most long-term. I also got a draft pick in the deal (5th) and was missing 1 pick (a 3rd), so not a bad thing. Plus I got Pavelski in the deal and gave up Mantha, so for rest of season i'd rather Pav, although neither guy would have fit for me keeper wise as I've already outlined who my expected keepers are.

[Moses]

Don’t you think it is early to be planning your team around 4 keeper picks for next year?

[LeafsFan1967]

Don’t you think it is early to be planning your team around 4 keeper picks for next year?

Not really, I'm just being realistic. Lots of improved teams in my pool this year, and strong teams from last year that are strong again. I finished 4th, and still think I can be competitive this year. I just got Keller man, don't rain on my parade :P

[MZac]

When I look at some of the names you gave up to get younger it makes me think you're putting too much value into youth. Sure Keller could one day be a 90 point player in the NHL but he's not likely outpointing Benn or Kuznetsov this year or next. And he's on a worse team than both of them so it very well may go 3 years or more. In a Keep 4 with 1 rookie carry over you need to be thinking win every season. With only 4 keepers you want the best possible players now.

Another problem with over valuing and keeping too much youth is that you essentially need Keller and Boeser to pop in the same season to have a solid chance at winning, along with Barkov not getting injured. That's a big ask as it's more likely that one of Keller and/or Boeser struggle this year and/or next as young players on bad teams. Limited keepers is all about keeping top end talent. Not 'talent to be'.

As good as Keller might become, I'm not taking him over Kuzy or Benn this season or next. Probably not even the 3rd year. And you shouldn't be all too concerned about anything beyond that as there's a good chance your league won't exist. If I'm being honest I think you have an uphill battle in your league for the next 2 or 3 seasons unless you can draft extremely well and get some serious value picks going.

[LeafsFan1967]

When I look at some of the names you gave up to get younger it makes me think you're putting too much value into youth. Sure Keller could one day be a 90 point player in the NHL but he's not likely outpointing Benn or Kuznetsov this year or next. And he's on a worse team than both of them so it very well may go 3 years or more. In a Keep 4 with 1 rookie carry over you need to be thinking win every season. With only 4 keepers you want the best possible players now.

Another problem with over valuing and keeping too much youth is that you essentially need Keller and Boeser to pop in the same season to have a solid chance at winning, along with Barkov not getting injured. That's a big ask as it's more likely that one of Keller and/or Boeser struggle this year and/or next as young players on bad teams. Limited keepers is all about keeping top end talent. Not 'talent to be'.

As good as Keller might become, I'm not taking him over Kuzy or Benn this season or next. Probably not even the 3rd year. And you shouldn't be all too concerned about anything beyond that as there's a good chance your league won't exist. If I'm being honest I think you have an uphill battle in your league for the next 2 or 3 seasons unless you can draft extremely well and get some serious value picks going.

I appreciate your opinion, but I have finished in the money the past 2 years, and I can still be competitive this year, and I get all your points about this being a limited keeper and such, and how a few things have to go right for me to be competitive, but I'm happy to take risks. Yes, Barky could get hurt, as could anyone, and Keller and Boeser may not go off at the same time, or maybe they will? I've been pretty good at evaluating talent, and yeah you trade some guys you wish you had still, but at the same time I've still got guys I like.

I think I've built a pretty good keeper group, maybe I take a bit of a hit for rest of season, but I still have Kopitar, Pavelski, Carter, Lee, Bobrovsky, Wheeler, not like I'm going to be a bottom feeder lol. I would just prefer rest of season + 4 more with Keller vs this year and next at most with Benn, even if Benn is better for now.

And the draft is watered down anyways, you obviously need picks, but a lot of it is luck. And this league has been going on for a decade, so not sure I get the league won't exist comment, lol. I'm also just being realistic based on the quantity of good teams this year. And youth is highly valued as a whole in my league, and Keller had 65 pts as a 19 year old, and Boeser is a natural scorer, and Barkov is coming into his own. Sure, Boeser and Barkov will probably have their peaks and valleys given their so young still, but I still love their upside and their value will only go up in the future.

Maybe we can re-assess this after the season, I'll keep you posted how it goes, I could surprise

And I think Arizona is ahead of Vancouver in terms of being competitive, but obviously both teams have a ways to go, but I'm sure they will both be better next year and beyond, I mean I think Arizona was expected to be pretty solid even this year. Not saying they'll be like a Dallas or a powerhouse for a few years yet, but Boeser and Keller are both go to guys on their respective teams, and they'll continue to be put in positions to put up numbers, even if the teams are still developing.

[MZac]

Just a follow up - I didn't mean to come off rude in my first post.

With the league not lasting more than 3 years comment; I meant it as a generality as alot of leagues don't go beyond that. Yours has been around longer and probably will be around beyond another three seasons.

The point of the comment, that I failed to make, was don't look beyond that or you could end up constantly chasing the hot new young player and doing mini rebuilds along the way. Good GMs will stay competitive with this strategy and can make up some ground but usually won't win. In a limited keeper try to win every year, who cares about championships 5 years from now. That's for you to worry about in 5 years if your league is indeed still around.

What I was mostly trying to say is that kuz and Benn have a floor of about 75 points give or take. You know what you're getting. Boeser and Keller both have the potential to hit that mark but who knows when they'll do it on two teams that will likely finish as draft lottery contenders. For every young 18-20 year old player that ends up ultimately going ppg there are a bunch that take 3-5 years to get there (too long in a limited keeper imo), there are a bunch that settle in between 50-70 points, and there are a bunch of yakupovs as well. I'm making a generality about chasing young players over proven guys with high floors on good teams with great linemates.

Placing in the money is great but winning should always be the goal imo. I think your team will be competitive this season as you have some good depth, winning will likely be really tough.

Edit: If youth is overvalued in your league then I'd try to take advantage of it rather than be part of it. If you find yourself out of the money this season before the deadline I'd look to move boeser for picks and have no problem keeping Kopitar for example.

[LeafsFan1967]

Just a follow up - I didn't mean to come off rude in my first post.

With the league not lasting more than 3 years comment; I meant it as a generality as alot of leagues don't go beyond that. Yours has been around longer and probably will be around beyond another three seasons.

The point of the comment, that I failed to make, was don't look beyond that or you could end up constantly chasing the hot new young player and doing mini rebuilds along the way. Good GMs will stay competitive with this strategy and can make up some ground but usually won't win. In a limited keeper try to win every year, who cares about championships 5 years from now. That's for you to worry about in 5 years if your league is indeed still around.

What I was mostly trying to say is that kuz and Benn have a floor of about 75 points give or take. You know what you're getting. Boeser and Keller both have the potential to hit that mark but who knows when they'll do it on two teams that will likely finish as draft lottery contenders. For every young 18-20 year old player that ends up ultimately going ppg there are a bunch that take 3-5 years to get there (too long in a limited keeper imo), there are a bunch that settle in between 50-70 points, and there are a bunch of yakupovs as well. I'm making a generality about chasing young players over proven guys with high floors on good teams with great linemates.

Placing in the money is great but winning should always be the goal imo. I think your team will be competitive this season as you have some good depth, winning will likely be really tough.

Edit: If youth is overvalued in your league then I'd try to take advantage of it rather than be part of it. If you find yourself out of the money this season before the deadline I'd look to move boeser for picks and have no problem keeping Kopitar for example.

No worries man, I didn?t think you were trying to be rude anyways. And kop is just my 2, the contracts I currently have signed are locked in, kop doesn?t expire, then I can sign him again, basically I?ll have Keller, Barkov, Wheeler, Boeser and Zadina, at least as of now. I?d rather move Boeser for an established stud, I realize I traded Benn in the Keller deal; but it came down to I?ll have more time with Keller vs Benn, and 90+ pt upside isn?t all that common. I?m in no rush to move Boeser, but I?ll keep all options open!

[rangerdanger]

I think people are selling Boeser point ceiling a bit short. I definitely think 40 goals are doable and he should near or surpass that total many years. But I th8nk he will also have more assists with all that talent around him. He’s a much better playmaker than I think he’s been given credit for. Feeding the likes of Pettersson, Horvat, Goldobin or whomever else, I don’t see why he couldn’t also get 50 assists or more.

[LeafsFan1967]

I also want to add that I got Pavelski and a 5th in the deal as well, and gave up Mantha with Benn.

Benn is the best player in the deal at this point, but I don't see Benn/Mantha outscoring Keller/Pavelski either, I mean Benn will get the most points, but I think I made out okay. Yes, Benn will likely get more points than Keller for the forseeable future, but having him for 4 years after this vs Benn for 1 at most is huge. It'd be different if I was near the top of the standings, and I liked my chances better of being in the money in general. Only 4 teams make the money, I was there the past 2 years but this season is even more competitive than last.