Top D available at my draft

[LeTrefle]

Points only
Keep 6
12 teams
--
Year in year out, about 15 Dmen are kept before the draft.
So there's a lot of good D available, but they'll be all gone by 2nd round...
I have picks #5-12-13 in rounds 1 and 2.
Hugues and Kakko will go 1st and 2nd.
My plan is to pick a 3rd solid D (I'm keeping Burns and Rielly) at #5 and maybe another one with pick #12 or #13 as productive Dmen are way harder to get than productive Forwards.
--
Here are the potential candidates to be available in the 1st round of the draft.
I'm looking at young Dmen that can hit 50+ and be considered keeper material by the end of the season.

Chabot - can he hit 50+ with this Ottawa team in front of him?
Jones - can he hit 50+ wihtout Panarin and Duchene? Can he lose his spot to Werenski?
Dumba - is this the year he finally produces to the level we're waiting for?
Trouba - is being the new #1 D on a revamped NYR team is enough to have him on this list?
Gostisbehere - can he put his horrible last season behind him and return to a 50+ (enven 60+) D?
OEL - clearly the oldest of the list, is the addition of Kessel is enough to see him back in the 50+?
--
If you could rank these Dmen I would really aprreciate it!
Thanks!
REP to you!

[rd69]

I personally like the order you put them in. I would pretty much group them in two groups of 3. So group 1 is Chabot, Jones, and Dumba. And group 2 is Trouba, Gostisbehere, and Ekman-Larsson.

I think the gaps between the guys in group 1 are small. Almost based on preference. Chabot is probably the best passer in the group, Dumba is the best scorer, and Jones is a good mixture.

Dumba and Jones are on teams that (I feel) will miss the playoffs but not be terrible, while Chabot is probably on the worst team in the league.

Based on your signature, it doesn't look like +/- matters. I do see you have a team cat that provides points for wins, is that for the team that the player plays on? Meaning if the Senators win, and you own Chabot, you get 2 points?

If so, then you have to look at Jones or Dumba first.

[LeTrefle]

WOW great post!

I personally like the order you put them in. I would pretty much group them in two groups of 3. So group 1 is Chabot, Jones, and Dumba. And group 2 is Trouba, Gostisbehere, and Ekman-Larsson.

I put them in the order I have them on my draft list for now.

I think the gaps between the guys in group 1 are small. Almost based on preference. Chabot is probably the best passer in the group, Dumba is the best scorer, and Jones is a good mixture.

Dumba and Jones are on teams that (I feel) will miss the playoffs but not be terrible, while Chabot is probably on the worst team in the league.

Based on your signature, it doesn't look like +/- matters. I do see you have a team cat that provides points for wins, is that for the team that the player plays on? Meaning if the Senators win, and you own Chabot, you get 2 points?

If so, then you have to look at Jones or Dumba first.

We have a W category for our NHL team. I'm EDM as for now, but I'm planning on changing it at the draft.
So no, Chabot being in Ottawa doesn't hinder his +/- neither the W cat.

[rd69]

WOW great post!

I put them in the order I have them on my draft list for now.

We have a W category for our NHL team. I'm EDM as for now, but I'm planning on changing it at the draft.
So no, Chabot being in Ottawa doesn't hinder his +/- neither the W cat.

Ah good, thanks for the clarification! In that case, I'm taking Chabot first of the bunch. I know it's only a keep 5 so you may not keep him next year, but he's only 22. He's the clear cut best player on the Sens and already has a 55 point season under his belt.

Keep in mind that was in 70 games, so he was on a 64 point pace. I know he's due for some regression without Duchene, and Stone, but I still feel he's the most offensively talented of the bunch. May even wind up being a keeper for you next season.

[Bubba55]

I have them as follows:

Chabot - Cream of the crop

Dumba - Just coming into his own, hopefully the injury has no lasting effects, if not, he will break out
Trouba - He's the guy in NY for the time being
Jones - Werenski factor remains a threat

OEL - I like your assessment and for me, the answer to the Kessel factor is no. He could hit 50, but it will be an uphill battle I think
Ghost - Real wild card here. Provorov and Sanheim are very real threats to his opportunity. If he struggles early, hitting 50 is not a given. If he hits his stride he could push over 55,
but for me, it's a risky assumption.

Hope this helps.

[random-d]

1. I think Chabot is really good, but playing for a stripped down Ottawa team 50 points is going to be a tall order. I think you have to ask yourself; If you don't think OEL will get 50 playing for what looks to be a healthy and improved Arizona team then you certainly shouldn't bank on Chabot getting there.
2. I don't think Werenski is really a threat for Jones. Although you once again have the potential bad team situation creeping in on you. Columbus is kind of a team in flux right now.
3. Dumba was on pace for 56 points last year and he's clearly the guy in Minnesota when he's healthy. New GM and a team that didn't add much over the offseason could have an effect there as well though, hard to tell which way they might go. But I think it's safe to say that whatever happens Dumba will probably come out in a favorable position as he's least likely to be dealt given his age and performance should Minny start rebuilding.
4. OEL could be a great value pick. There's alot of hype around Clayton Keller and most of that is centered around a percieved uptick in pp performance with the addition of Kessel and a healthy lineup. I think it stands to reason that OEL would also benefit greatly from those circumstance. I would argue he's the most likely to hit 50.
5. Trouba looks to be set to get the opportunity he's always been denied playing behind the depth in Winnipeg. Some think he's overrated and he's not a true QB but I don't buy that. He's an incredible player who plays with intensity and determination, I can definitely see him taking off with his new found freedom. The only thing that might hold him back is the team in front of him. I would say 50 is reasonable estimate though unless things go horribly wrong.
6. Ghost scares me the most, not because I don't think he has the talent but the Philly blueline is getting really crowded, he'll definitely get the opportunity to return to form but any slips could result in his minutes getting dished around to the other talented young guys they have.

If you're looking at long term value it looks like this:

Chabot
Dumba
Jones
Trouba
Ghost
OEL

If you also want immediate results it's


Dumba
Jones
OEL
Trouba
Chabot
Ghost

[Axeman33]

Short and long term, points only, for me:

Jones
Chabot
Dumba
Trouba
Gostisbehere
OEL

[LeTrefle]

This seems clear that Ghost and OEL are a tier (or 2) under the other 4.
Honestly, I put them in the list in the OP because Dobber had them high in his keeper rankings.
I think Trouba still hasn’t prove himself like Chabot, Jones or Dumba to be able to carry a team as #1 D.
So I’m down to Chabot, Jones or Dumba.
Still unsure.
All insights are apprecieted!
Thanks!
REP to you!

[random-d]

This seems clear that Ghost and OEL are a tier (or 2) under the other 4.
Honestly, I put them in the list in the OP because Dobber had them high in his keeper rankings.
I think Trouba still hasn’t prove himself like Chabot, Jones or Dumba to be able to carry a team as #1 D.
So I’m down to Chabot, Jones or Dumba.
Still unsure.
All insights are apprecieted!
Thanks!
REP to you!

You're original criteria was hit 50, and be a keeper at years end. Hitting 50 I think is a reasonable bet for all 3 of those guys, but I'm not sure any of them are going to be keepers over the guys you already have unless you're looking towards a long term strategy. Without peripheral cats, I'd rank them as follows;

Chabot
Dumba
Jones

I see Ottawa trending up in the future, Minnesota should be middling, and CBJ trending down. If not for team situations they would all be fairly equal.

[lucafen4]

It is kinda funny seeing Ghost at the bottom of this list. I agree with the 'wild card' comment. Cuz he could end up #1 on this list come end of the season. After last year he's a legit roll of the dice.

[HonkyTonkMan]

I'll go out on a limb

Ghost
Jones
Chabot
OEL
Dumba
Trouba

[mjm44]

Jones
Dumba
Chabt
OEL
Trouba
Ghost

You want 2 of the top 3 IMO the others are hard to say where they end up