Seguin or Keller + Heiskanen?

[andrewelliot]

Points only. I can either keep Seguin, or I can keep Keller and Heiskanen.

My feeling is that Seguin is lazy. He has the talent to be a top 5 scorer but he seems happy at around 0.90 ppg.

Keller, on the other hand, was projected by Dobber to have a 90 or 95 point ceiling, but seems utterly unspectacular this year, albiet as a sophomore.

Heiskanen is clearly a great D but will he really take over offensively so long as Klingberg is there?

Any and all thoughts welcome!! Cheers!

[Eskimo Brother]

Curious as to what your league settings are, especially the one that gives you the ability to keep Seguin (one), or the two youngsters.

I lean towards Seguin. October next year rolls around, and you could easily trade Seguin for Keller, Heiskanen, and a bunch more (unless something unexpected comes up in your league settings).

Keller can hit 90 points (I think he tops out around 80-85 - semantics), but I don't think it'll be next year. It will be year four or five that he hits it. So keeping him this year over a proven 90 point player, based on a 90 point ceiling that he will hit in a few years isn't a great move.
I'm also assuming Heiskanen is generally replaceable in the offseason/draft, especially in a league where Seguin could not be kept.

[Slickricks]

I think I would be along the same lines as EB. Gotta keep the Seguin for now. Hope in the summer a better offer comes around.

[stevegamer]

Points only. I can either keep Seguin, or I can keep Keller and Heiskanen.
My feeling is that Seguin is lazy. He has the talent to be a top 5 scorer but he seems happy at around 0.90 ppg.

I think you're confusing Dallas' system with Seguin's effort. Hitchcock is well known for running a defensive style, and for all the talk about opening things up this year, it's been just talk.

I am not certain if or when Keller eclipses Seguin. I see no reason to swap Seguin for the other two, unless you are a bad rebuilding team in a league where you either keep a lot of players or dynasty, or have some kind of age or round drafted based keeper system.

[MZac]

From what we've seen this season, there is no chance I'm not going with Seguin. The guy has hit more posts than anyone this season and is still going to hit 30 goals and a fifth season in a row with 70+. The way scoring has gone this year, a 90 point bounceback season does not seem all that far fetched for Seguin. I'd bet on it before I'd bet on 75+ for Keller next year (not Kellers fault, history explains below):

Does anyone in Arizona ever hit 70 points? I had to look - R. Whitney did in 2011/12 and Shane Doan did in 07/08 and 08/09, neither were spring chickens at the time they did it. After that to find a 70 point player you have to go all the way back to roenick and tkatchuk in 2000/01 (the father of two current NHLers who could easily be a grandfather before anyone scores 70 points again in the desert).

Keith Yandle once led the entire team with 53 points, not that long ago. The next year another defencemen led the team with 43 points (OEL - and he led the team again the following year in a season most of us remember well - this was only 3 seasons ago). Three seasons in a row where a defencemen led the team in points with less than 60 points. Domi leaves and he explodes, Strome leaves and he explodes.

I like Keller alot and think he's a really good player, completely capable of 70+ and even 80+, but I need to see it happen in Arizona before I double down on him for a proven player like Seguin.

Prospects seem to consistently die a slow death in the desert, let's hope Keller is wearing sunscreen. Meanwhile, Seguin is lotioned up, brought one of those fans that attach to your phone, a change of clothing, all kinds of hats, and enough water to last another decade out there in the southern heat.

[lucafen4]

I think answering EB's question on why 1 vs. 2 player keep option?

Clayton Keller - meet Dylan Larkin. Man does his sophomore slump seem familiar to anyone else?

I need more details on your league keeper rules & your roster to really dive into this.. I'll withhold my answer/opinion till then. I could be swayed either way.

[andrewelliot]

Thanks everyone for your replies!

The protect rules work on a points cap. We take the top 7 players of the winning team from the season before, add up their points, and that becomes the points cap for protects going into the next season. As of yesterday, Seguin had 63 pts and Keller + Heiskanen = 44 + 28 = 72, but I would have enough margin to cover that. So from a protection standpoint Seguin is roughly equal to Keller + Heiskanen (or appear to be right now).

And yes ... Dylan Larkin! There are a lot of similarities. Further, Nick Schmaltz really clicked with Keller before he got injured. Schmaltz got traded straight up for Dylan Strome so that gives you an idea of his perceived potential. A healthy season of Keller / Schmaltz could be pretty dynamic. And Arizona in general has suffered a great deal of injuries this year.

With respect to Seguin, you all are probably right. He's the sure thing. I was just really unimpressed that after the CEO of the Stars called out him and Benn, that Seguin went on a mini-scoring streak. For a few weeks. Then returned to his comfortable old pace. He has 90+ point potential but he's making $9 million a year and he just doesn't seem interested in getting much more than 70 pts.

It should be said I rarely see any of these guys play, I'm more looking at scoring summaries the next morning :O

[Eskimo Brother]

I would be curious to see the rest of your team (with point totals and you approx future cap). I feel like this is the kind of setup you can be creative with you keepers to try and get an edge.

[MZac]

Thanks everyone for your replies!

The protect rules work on a points cap. We take the top 7 players of the winning team from the season before, add up their points, and that becomes the points cap for protects going into the next season. As of yesterday, Seguin had 63 pts and Keller + Heiskanen = 44 + 28 = 72, but I would have enough margin to cover that. So from a protection standpoint Seguin is roughly equal to Keller + Heiskanen (or appear to be right now).

And yes ... Dylan Larkin! There are a lot of similarities. Further, Nick Schmaltz really clicked with Keller before he got injured. Schmaltz got traded straight up for Dylan Strome so that gives you an idea of his perceived potential. A healthy season of Keller / Schmaltz could be pretty dynamic. And Arizona in general has suffered a great deal of injuries this year.

With respect to Seguin, you all are probably right. He's the sure thing. I was just really unimpressed that after the CEO of the Stars called out him and Benn, that Seguin went on a mini-scoring streak. For a few weeks. Then returned to his comfortable old pace. He has 90+ point potential but he's making $9 million a year and he just doesn't seem interested in getting much more than 70 pts.

It should be said I rarely see any of these guys play, I'm more looking at scoring summaries the next morning :O

Interesting keeper setup. The best keeper bargains will be guys with big bounce back years. I still lean Seguin as he is definitely a bounce back candidate with a high floor, but Keller is definitely a nice potential target with this setup. Even if he doesn't go PPG (or hit 70 points) one must expect he has a better season than the 51 points he's currently pacing for. I'm not overly interested in Heiskanen in this format. Pacing for 33 points but do we see 40+ next season? I'm not convinced it happens next year.

[Eskimo Brother]

Interesting keeper setup. The best keeper bargains will be guys with big bounce back years. I still lean Seguin as he is definitely a bounce back candidate with a high floor, but Keller is definitely a nice potential target with this setup. Even if he doesn't go PPG (or hit 70 points) one must expect he has a better season than the 51 points he's currently pacing for. I'm not overly interested in Heiskanen in this format. Pacing for 33 points but do we see 40+ next season? I'm not convinced it happens next year.

Agreed, that's why I'm wondering if we can shift guys around and find a way for him to keep both.

[Eskimo Brother]

Also another relevant question: If not every team keeps the same number of players, how does the draft work? Do you just pass later round picks if you have more keepers? Or do you lose earlier picks by keeping more players?

[andrewelliot]

Okay so here is my team. Points and ppg are before last night's games. Current leader's top 7 players put the cap at 574. 10 teams.

Roster is 25, 15 active and 10 on the farm, changeable once a week. Active roster is 9F 4D 2G. Points only. Goalie points are 2 per win, 3 per SO.

Here would be my protects if I keep Keller and Heiskanen. Leaves me with 3 points to spare.

F
82 pts, 1.19 ppg Marner, Mitchell - protect
66 pts, 1.18 ppg Pastrnak, David - protect
74 pts, 1.10 ppg Panarin, Artemi - protect
63 pts, 0.91 ppg Seguin, Tyler
54 pts, 0.78 ppg Dadonov, Evgenii
50 pts, 0.74 ppg Tatar, Tomas
47 pts, 0.67 ppg Labanc, Kevin
46 pts, 0.66 ppg Gallagher, Brendan
44 pts, 0.63 ppg Keller, Clayton - protect
25 pts, 0.62 ppg Schmaltz, Nick - protect
28 pts, 0.54 ppg Buchnevich, Pavel
30 pts, 0.52 ppg Kovalchuk, Ilya
0 pts, 0.00 ppg Kaprizov, Kirill - protect

D
47 pts, 0.71 ppg Barrie, Tyson - protect
36 pts, 0.71 ppg Klingberg, John - protect
37 pts, 0.52 ppg Ellis, Ryan
26 pts, 0.47 ppg Miller, Colin
28 pts, 0.41 ppg Heiskanen, Miro - protect
24 pts, 0.40 ppg Shattenkirk, Kevin
0 pts, 0.00 ppg Hughes, Quinn - protect

G
56 pts, Koskinen, Mikko - protect
56 pts, Hellebuyck, Connor - protect
55 pts, Markstrom, Jacob - protect
25 pts, Talbot, Cam
2 pts, Demko, Thatcher - protect

So I'm heavy on goalies but I really don't know who to trust among the Edmonton and Vancouver netminders. My D is good. My F lack true elites. I'm currently in last place!!! But I can protect a lot due to injuries to Pastrnak, Schmaltz, Klingberg, and a slow season from Hellebuyck.

Protecting more players means you lose later rounds, not earlier rounds.

[Eskimo Brother]

So, your draft is going to be relatively similar no matter who you protect, but if you want to compete, having 20 guys add to 600 points isn't going to cut it. If you have 6-8 keepers that add to that many points, it puts you right up with the top tier teams. The prospects you only want to keep if they will be better than the guy you could draft in their stead, or if they have trade value. Then take advantage of players who will produce more next year, and drop guys who will plateau or decline (Barrie/Markstrom).


F
82 pts, 1.19 ppg Marner, Mitchell - protect
66 pts, 1.18 ppg Pastrnak, David - protect
74 pts, 1.10 ppg Panarin, Artemi - protect
63 pts, 0.91 ppg Seguin, Tyler - protect
54 pts, 0.78 ppg Dadonov, Evgenii - protect
46 pts, 0.66 ppg Gallagher, Brendan - protect
44 pts, 0.63 ppg Keller, Clayton - protect
25 pts, 0.62 ppg Schmaltz, Nick - protect
0 pts, 0.00 ppg Kaprizov, Kirill - protect

D
36 pts, 0.71 ppg Klingberg, John - protect
0 pts, 0.00 ppg Hughes, Quinn - protect

G
56 pts, Hellebuyck, Connor - protect



This set is probably who I would keep. The rest of your goalies I don't see being worth keeping (maybe Demko - but you could draft someone better anyways).

It also leaves you some wiggle room as it only adds to 546.

[lucafen4]

Hmmm... could you scrap Koskinen & Schmaltz and protect Seguin? With Keller & Heiskanen?

[MZac]

Okay so here is my team. Points and ppg are before last night's games. Current leader's top 7 players put the cap at 574. 10 teams.

Roster is 25, 15 active and 10 on the farm, changeable once a week. Active roster is 9F 4D 2G. Points only. Goalie points are 2 per win, 3 per SO.

Here would be my protects if I keep Keller and Heiskanen. Leaves me with 3 points to spare.

F
82 pts, 1.19 ppg Marner, Mitchell - protect
66 pts, 1.18 ppg Pastrnak, David - protect
74 pts, 1.10 ppg Panarin, Artemi - protect
63 pts, 0.91 ppg Seguin, Tyler
54 pts, 0.78 ppg Dadonov, Evgenii
50 pts, 0.74 ppg Tatar, Tomas
47 pts, 0.67 ppg Labanc, Kevin
46 pts, 0.66 ppg Gallagher, Brendan
44 pts, 0.63 ppg Keller, Clayton - protect
25 pts, 0.62 ppg Schmaltz, Nick - protect
28 pts, 0.54 ppg Buchnevich, Pavel
30 pts, 0.52 ppg Kovalchuk, Ilya
0 pts, 0.00 ppg Kaprizov, Kirill - protect

D
47 pts, 0.71 ppg Barrie, Tyson - protect
36 pts, 0.71 ppg Klingberg, John - protect
37 pts, 0.52 ppg Ellis, Ryan
26 pts, 0.47 ppg Miller, Colin
28 pts, 0.41 ppg Heiskanen, Miro - protect
24 pts, 0.40 ppg Shattenkirk, Kevin
0 pts, 0.00 ppg Hughes, Quinn - protect

G
56 pts, Koskinen, Mikko - protect
56 pts, Hellebuyck, Connor - protect
55 pts, Markstrom, Jacob - protect
25 pts, Talbot, Cam
2 pts, Demko, Thatcher - protect

So I'm heavy on goalies but I really don't know who to trust among the Edmonton and Vancouver netminders. My D is good. My F lack true elites. I'm currently in last place!!! But I can protect a lot due to injuries to Pastrnak, Schmaltz, Klingberg, and a slow season from Hellebuyck.

Protecting more players means you lose later rounds, not earlier rounds.

Quick fix - dump Talbot and Koskinen or Markstrom. That leaves you enough to keep Seguin. I see both Seguin and Keller as must keeps in this format. If you feel you have to keep that many medicre-bad goalies then you gotta find another way to fit them in. You could argue that Seguin will likely bring more value than Panarin next season. IE Similar production vs how many points they cost to keep. I'm not advocating dropping panarin as I think you should keep him too but just an example.