Prospect Ranking Advice

[Duke Jackson]

Hi there,

I've asked a few questions about parts of my upcoming 1st year dynasty/cap league draft but wanted to ask your advice as to how I go about creating a ranking list.

12 team, H2H points league, G/A are the heavy focus (70+% of points). 23 player main roster with an unlimited prospect roster.
Prospects have 1 year dev contract followed by 3 year entry level where they receive league min contract and can be called up and sent down at will.

This is the 1st year for this league and the prospect pool consists of any drafted player who has played fewer than 82 games (81 or less) so it's a pretty daunting list. My question is, how do I go about creating that list when I'm definitely no expert by any means. I've been looking at players by draft year but then trying to combine those years has been very difficult.

I got the prospect guide on here, which has been incredibly informative and also look at the dobber prospect rankings. But how do I combine those into a useable draft list? Are the dobber rankings strong enough that I can just go down that list via the prospect rating? And if so, how do I add in players who aren't on it anymore since they've basically made an NHL roster?

Thanks for the help.

[Hunter9]

This kind of thing takes time and is not easy. Lots of research is probably the best approach. Prospect guide is a great start. Read past forum posts to get an idea of how players stack up.

Also looking at the Dobber top 300 rankings will help you tier the players that have 'graduated' the prospect status. Ultimately, I would try and break players down into tiers rather than individual rankings.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Unfortunately, there's no easy answer here. Here's probably what I'd do if I had no knowledge of prospects:
1) Start with the consensus prospect ranking you'll find from the report
* This is the only list that combines forwards and defensemen
* Remember it's only players with 0 NHL GP and doesn't include goalies
2) Go through the team sections and add the highly-rated players who have already played in the NHL which excludes them from the consensus ranking
* Look for forwards with TY rating of less than 75 and defensemen with TY rating of less than 35D
3) Add goalies based on the goalie rankings on the report
4) Add more players based on the information from the report
* Go through draft-eligible players and the team sections again to find more players to add to your list depending on how many names you need

It's a lot of work but that's what you have to do if you want to have success in leagues with prospect systems.

After you have the preliminary list ready, you can ask here on the forum what others think about your rankings. You can also ask others where they'd put players who are missing from the report if there are some who have played less than 82 games. Obviously there's risk that someone else from your league is also here.

If you're willing to spend some money for prospect knowledge, here's something that might interest you: https://www.patreon.com/CrazyJoeDavola

[StamkosFan]

Brock Boeser should probably be number one on your list, followed by Charlie McAvoy, Mikhail Sergachev, Thomas Chabot....I can see Jake DeBrusk having a good season and Nolan Patrick should also improve

Goalies like Juuse Saros have played less than 82 games....then you have prospects like Eeli Tolvanen, Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Dahlin, Evgeny Svechnikov, Filip Zadina who have high upsides and potential to make an immediate impact next year

[Duke Jackson]

Thank you guys very much. I definitely appreciate the input and now I have a great starting point, which I did not before. I have until the middle or possibly end of July so it, at least, gives me some time to put in some work.

Thanks!

[Duke Jackson]

Unfortunately, there's no easy answer here. Here's probably what I'd do if I had no knowledge of prospects:
1) Start with the consensus prospect ranking you'll find from the report
* This is the only list that combines forwards and defensemen
* Remember it's only players with 0 NHL GP and doesn't include goalies
2) Go through the team sections and add the highly-rated players who have already played in the NHL which excludes them from the consensus ranking
* Look for forwards with TY rating of less than 75 and defensemen with TY rating of less than 35D
3) Add goalies based on the goalie rankings on the report
4) Add more players based on the information from the report
* Go through draft-eligible players and the team sections again to find more players to add to your list depending on how many names you need

It's a lot of work but that's what you have to do if you want to have success in leagues with prospect systems.

After you have the preliminary list ready, you can ask here on the forum what others think about your rankings. You can also ask others where they'd put players who are missing from the report if there are some who have played less than 82 games. Obviously there's risk that someone else from your league is also here.

If you're willing to spend some money for prospect knowledge, here's something that might interest you: https://www.patreon.com/CrazyJoeDavola

This is extremely helpful. Thank you so much.

[lucafen4]

One thing to mention about Dobber's prospect lists, he looks at their 3 yr expected production. So a player like Kaprizov is ranked lower than he would be if the list were based purely on career upside (2yrs remaining in KHL vs. Tolvanen - expected to be in NHL next year)

You'll find higher ceiling players hiding amongst the middle rankings because their NHL-ETA is further out than some others.

[Duke Jackson]

One thing to mention about Dobber's prospect lists, he looks at their 3 yr expected production. So a player like Kaprizov is ranked lower than he would be if the list were based purely on career upside (2yrs remaining in KHL vs. Tolvanen - expected to be in NHL next year)

You'll find higher ceiling players hiding amongst the middle rankings because their NHL-ETA is further out than some others.

Thanks. I actually had no idea what the window was when looking at the rankings so that definitely helps.

[als_revenge]

One thing to mention about Dobber's prospect lists, he looks at their 3 yr expected production. So a player like Kaprizov is ranked lower than he would be if the list were based purely on career upside (2yrs remaining in KHL vs. Tolvanen - expected to be in NHL next year)

You'll find higher ceiling players hiding amongst the middle rankings because their NHL-ETA is further out than some others.

3YP is not expected three year production. It is an estimate of the average of the players three best years moving forward (and it assumes the player makes the NHL). It has nothing to do with the next three years. There have been a zillion discussions on this stat over the years.

Anyways, to the OP - I'd do this: buy last year's season guide. From there, you can look at the upside and 3YP of a pile of players with less than 82 GP. Then you can add in comparable stats for this year's rookies. Then just make a formula, where you rank how much weight you want to put onto upside, versus 3yp. I'd probably make three separate lists: G/D/F.

At least this method will allow you to compare rookies from different years with similar stats. And since your league is 70 percent based on scoring, it's not a bad way to go.

Good luck with your draft and draft preparations.

[Duke Jackson]

3YP is not expected three year production. It is an estimate of the average of the players three best years moving forward (and it assumes the player makes the NHL). It has nothing to do with the next three years. There have been a zillion discussions on this stat over the years.

Anyways, to the OP - I'd do this: buy last year's season guide. From there, you can look at the upside and 3YP of a pile of players with less than 82 GP. Then you can add in comparable stats for this year's rookies. Then just make a formula, where you rank how much weight you want to put onto upside, versus 3yp. I'd probably make three separate lists: G/D/F.

At least this method will allow you to compare rookies from different years with similar stats. And since your league is 70 percent based on scoring, it's not a bad way to go.

Good luck with your draft and draft preparations.

That's a great idea; I didn't even think of last year's guide. Thank you.

[Duke Jackson]

3YP is not expected three year production. It is an estimate of the average of the players three best years moving forward (and it assumes the player makes the NHL). It has nothing to do with the next three years. There have been a zillion discussions on this stat over the years.

Anyways, to the OP - I'd do this: buy last year's season guide. From there, you can look at the upside and 3YP of a pile of players with less than 82 GP. Then you can add in comparable stats for this year's rookies. Then just make a formula, where you rank how much weight you want to put onto upside, versus 3yp. I'd probably make three separate lists: G/D/F.

At least this method will allow you to compare rookies from different years with similar stats. And since your league is 70 percent based on scoring, it's not a bad way to go.

Good luck with your draft and draft preparations.

Follow up: can you elaborate a little more on the idea of weighing upside vs. 3YP? Example, I'm looking at Andreas Johnsson. His 3YP is 18-20-38 while his upside is 30-40-70. So I'm assuming we're looking at him performing at some level between those rates. Do you mean take an average there and use those estimated points?

Thanks.

[als_revenge]

Follow up: can you elaborate a little more on the idea of weighing upside vs. 3YP? Example, I'm looking at Andreas Johnsson. His 3YP is 18-20-38 while his upside is 30-40-70. So I'm assuming we're looking at him performing at some level between those rates. Do you mean take an average there and use those estimated points?

Thanks.

When I started fantasy hockey 5 or 6 years ago, I knew current players very well but next to nothing about prospects. So I relied on Dobber's guide a lot. My method was simplistic, but it was a starting point. I created a table with all the prospects that included their upside number and 3yp. I think I created a common stat by weighting 3yp at 60 percent, upside at 30 percent, and expected points for coming year at 10 percent. Something like that. While it's simple and crude, it gave me a list to start with, and then I adjusted it by moving players up or down based on other scouting reports and such. I'm sure the math inclined will roll their eyes, but it worked for me.

[Jouko-Pouko]

A few clarifications about the report.
- Yes, Dobber's rankings are not based purely on upside. NHL readiness is a big thing in his rankings
- Upside means best case scenario. Perfect usage, perfect linemates, everything clicks. It's the absolute max
- 3YP is the more realistic projection, an average of player's best three years (e.g. a player with 3YP of 65 can have his best seasons as 55, 65 and 75 points)

Creating your own rankings based on those numbers is a good idea, something like what als_revenge said.

[Duke Jackson]

When I started fantasy hockey 5 or 6 years ago, I knew current players very well but next to nothing about prospects. So I relied on Dobber's guide a lot. My method was simplistic, but it was a starting point. I created a table with all the prospects that included their upside number and 3yp. I think I created a common stat by weighting 3yp at 60 percent, upside at 30 percent, and expected points for coming year at 10 percent. Something like that. While it's simple and crude, it gave me a list to start with, and then I adjusted it by moving players up or down based on other scouting reports and such. I'm sure the math inclined will roll their eyes, but it worked for me.

That's a great idea. It would give me a concrete number, which would help me compare players, which really seems like the most challenging part. Thanks again!