5th overall pick in 2015

[Jouko-Pouko]

I would like to hear other opinions on this. I don't own the 5th overall pick but in my opinion this is an interesting discussion worth having. Not even Dobber himself was able to give an answer to this.

So only 2015 draftees are available and let's assume McDavid, Eichel, Strome and Marner are gone already and you're holding the 5th overall pick. Who do you take?

Let's assume D-men don't hold any special value in this league, so some sort of standard setting. You can use whichever standard categories you want, just mention that in your reply. This is meant to be a general discussion, not about some specific league or some specific categories.

I'm leaning towards a D-man here but not sure if that would be Provorov or Hanifin. Or should it be a winger like Rantanen or Crouse? Or perhaps a high risk, high reward type of player like Zacha or Barzal?

Those are the names I have on my short list. Would you add more names to the discussion?

[STONE.]

I think Hanifin is the guy I'd be grabbing right now -- of course a lot depends on where guys go in the actual draft. Things will probably change a lot between now and then. If Zacha or Barzal end up moving up in the draft, I think I'd trust the NHL scouts that saw their value. But if Hanifin goes top four, I think you have to lean his way.

Hanifin has been hyped for a long time, and seems like a fairly sure bet to be solid. It might take a bit, but if a league allows for a young d-man to be held for a year or two (ie. Hedman, Jones, Rielly), I think he's gonna be best choice here.

I do wonder, however, if he isn't also a guy that will be very targetable after his first year -- Ekblad is going to shift the perspective on young D in a silly way. If he's merely average in year one, I think he might be gettable.

Excited to see this thread, as I'm hoping to have the 4th and perhaps 5th (or 6th/7th, depending on the next week) picks in this draft. Thanks for starting the discussion.

[2014olympicgold]

Fantasy wise, depends when the fantasy draft is and what NHL team has what players drafted. If the draft is mid pre-season and it looks like Hanifin might crack the team, I’d take him. If he is on a deep d-man team, I’d lean towards Rantanen or Zacha. Zacha was ranked 4^th or 5^th like 7 months ago, and only because Crouse has had a solid WJC and latter half of the yr rose from 7^th.

Real life wise, and I’m the GM of let’s say Carolina (owns 5^th overall right now), I’d take Hanifin because the top 10 players in the second round are mostly forwards. Then get a Brendan Warren, or a Dennis Yan. Or I’d trade down to about 7 or 8 for a rostered player and get Zacha then.

I like Werenski over Provorov simply on size for a defenseman, even tho both are roughly the same size; I just think Werenski will get bigger. Werenski’s biggest knock is that he played in Big10 league, which is pretty taboo, not a lot of NHL stars come from that league. He could just look good over the other guys

[Jouko-Pouko]

One interesting note about Hanifin is that Craig Button has him #12 in his latest rankings. And fact is that Zach Werenski had more points than Hanifin this season in the same league. Does that mean Werenski is that good or does that mean Hanifin isn't all that special offensively? I don't know. Hanifin is a sure-fire NHL player who will log lots of minutes. But is he a 40-point D-man or can he get 50+ points?

On the other hand, Provorov was a point-per-game player (61 in 60) in the WHL, and this was his rookie season there. That's pretty special for a D-man. And I've heard nothing but positive things about his defensive play.

This is why I can't decide between these players. I don't even know which D-man is the best choice. Then you add the forwards into the mix and I'm lost.

[Rodgort]

I'm in a points on keeper and I am looking at 6th pick, so I feel your struggles haha. There is Meier and Barzal to look at as well if picking in that area if you do not want a Dman.
Button seems to give a lot of hype of USHL guys (Connor and Boeser) but I have not heard about them. Perhaps try trading down and see what is sitting around? They should all turn out to be good players. If your league settings are more multi-cat then maybe Crouse, but I will let someone else draft him.
I am thinking of targetting Zacha no matter where he falls (unless it is the second round because then I could possibly nab him with a later pick) as his season had many injuries and suspensions keeping his numbers down, and I have a good crop of young dmen. I also always wait until the actual draft takes place to see who went to what team as that can yeild the best opportunity.

[Jouko-Pouko]

OK, one more assumption; you have to make your decision before the NHL draft. We don't know who goes where.

Our prospect draft is always before the NHL draft. Of course it helps if you know where everyone is going but not all of us have that luxury.

[Oakville Squires]

I think this thread is a great idea. For this years draft I have 3 lottery picks (3 of the top 6) and 9th overall and I have been putting a lot of thought on who I would select. In my view there is a clear-cut top 2 players in McDavid and Eichel and that the next tier is three deep and I would rank them Marner, Strome and Hanifan. I would select Marner and Strome ahead of Hanifan as I think there is more separation between them and the next best forward than Hanifan over Provorov, Werenski or Kylington.

After the top 5 my rankings for the next 10 would probably be as follows:

6) Rantanen
7) Barzal
8) Zacha
9) Provorov
10) Crouse
11) Konecny
12) Meier
13) Werenski
14) Kylington
15) Connor

Personally like Rantanen and Barzal the best after the top 5 but I don't think there is that much separation between the next 10 players after the top 5 and I am sure my rankings will change several times over the next couple months.

[TheBadger]

I like Hanafin here..

Though i would like to hear some takes on who is the most NHL ready after 4th overall...

Offensively gifted and gritty Meire comes to mind and of course that big Russian ;] I would definitely be looking at these two come draft day in the 5 spot.

[2014olympicgold]

One interesting note about Hanifin is that Craig Button has him #12 in his latest rankings. And fact is that Zach Werenski had more points than Hanifin this season in the same league. Does that mean Werenski is that good or does that mean Hanifin isn't all that special offensively? I don't know. Hanifin is a sure-fire NHL player who will log lots of minutes. But is he a 40-point D-man or can he get 50+ points?

On the other hand, Provorov was a point-per-game player (61 in 60) in the WHL, and this was his rookie season there. That's pretty special for a D-man. And I've heard nothing but positive things about his defensive play.

This is why I can't decide between these players. I don't even know which D-man is the best choice. Then you add the forwards into the mix and I'm lost.

U of Michigan (Werenski’s school) is division 2, Hanifin is at Boston College which is division 1.

[Axeman33]

Mutli-cat (hits/PIMs, etc) - Lawson Crouse

Points only - Miko Rantanen

In the actual NHL draft, I don't see either going this early.

[ericdaoust]

Prospects are risky enough as it is and now you have to make your selection without even knowing which team the players are being drafted by. Do you have the option of trading this pick? I would explore this route pretty seriously especially as the draft gets closer and people start drinking the kool aid.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Personally like Rantanen and Barzal the best after the top 5 but I don't think there is that much separation between the next 10 players after the top 5 and I am sure my rankings will change several times over the next couple months.

In my opinion, there's a clear Top-4 (McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Marner) but I agree with you, there's not much separation between the players after that. That's why I started this thread, to see if someone separates himself from the group. Thanks for your opinion.

U of Michigan (Werenski’s school) is division 2, Hanifin is at Boston College which is division 1.

Thanks for the clarification, I didn't know that. Is there much difference between the divisions talent-wise and/or with playing style (more/less offensive or physical)?

[STONE.]

I like Werenski over Provorov simply on size for a defenseman, even tho both are roughly the same size; I just think Werenski will get bigger. Werenski’s biggest knock is that he played in Big10 league, which is pretty taboo, not a lot of NHL stars come from that league.

Um...
Max Pacioretty, Jack Johnson, Mike Cammalleri, Mike Knuble...these are just a few Wolverines.
In fact, Michigan has more drafted NHLers than any other college with 70: http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=31879

And if you want to expand to the rest of the Big10, you can add MSU (49, including Keith and Krug), Minnesota (69 with many stars), OSU (21), and Wisconsin (49)

Not sure why you're seeing this as a knock on Werenski...

[Jouko-Pouko]

Prospects are risky enough as it is and now you have to make your selection without even knowing which team the players are being drafted by. Do you have the option of trading this pick? I would explore this route pretty seriously especially as the draft gets closer and people start drinking the kool aid.

Like I said, I don't actually own the 5th overall pick but of course trading up is always an option. I'm currently in the final, so my 1st round draft pick will be 19th or 20th. I'm in a very deep dynasty league (20 teams, every team has ~50 players), and in my opinion, drafting before the NHL draft is more interesting than drafting after it.

Last year I also had a late draft pick (I've finished in the Top-3 every year) but I traded up to 2nd overall and picked Sam Reinhart. I know the price for a Top-4 pick will be very high this year but I'm wondering if it might be possible to trade up to 5th. But if there's really not much separation between 5th and 10th for example, then trading up to 5th doesn't make sense.

[2014olympicgold]

In my opinion, there's a clear Top-4 (McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Marner) but I agree with you, there's not much separation between the players after that. That's why I started this thread, to see if someone separates himself from the group. Thanks for your opinion.



Thanks for the clarification, I didn't know that. Is there much difference between the divisions talent-wise and/or with playing style (more/less offensive or physical)?

Sorry I lied. Both are Div1 teams. But Michigan is in the Big10, which I’m pretty sure is a solid, but their out of conference record was 8-6-0, 44GF, 41GA. Which isn’t the best goal differential.

Boston C was 8-3-0, 40GF, 20GA out of conference. And I like that much better than Michigan. Shows a bit of how the conferences differ.

But Hanifin won the offensive D-man award, and got on the rookie team in the East, Werenski got on the Big10 allstar team, and the freshman team, but didn’t win any individual awards. So Hanifin won an award in a (I think personally) a harder conference.