Spencer Knight. Wait time.

[Toews Took My Girl]

With my final selection in our 3 round prospect draft (pick #32 out of 36) I grabbed Spencer Knight. Joined last year as an expansion team into a deep Dynasty league (over 10years)

With the goal of being competitive in 3-4 years, is Knight going to be ready to join my roster? We can keep players in our minors up to 3 years for free, after their 3 years “marinating” we can keep them down for a $fee.

Team including minors is in Sig.

[FantasyKing]

he should be ready in 2 years

[Axeman33]

A lot will depend on what the Panthers do this off-season with their goalies. If they sign Bobrovsky like many seem to think will happen, that will slow down any hope for Knight to take over any time soon, unless they only sign Bobrovsky to a shorter term deal then most expect. Even if Knight is ready in 3-4 years, Bobrovsky will still have a few years left on his deal and considering his age at that time, he will be tough to trade.

[VintageVibe]

Fully agree with Axe -- Goalies take a longer time than we think and while Knight might be the exception he will still be 3-4 years away from a long sniff.

Add a year or two onto that should FLA sign Sgt Bob.

Bonus if he gets a chunk of starts within these time frames which I'd put at a ~40% probability

[mounD]

I would never draft a goalie in the entry draft and expect production within 5 years. The position is so random and volatile, and development is rarely linear. Knight is without a doubt a very highly touted prospect with all the tools to succeed, but so many things have to go right between now and, let's say 2022-23, for him to be a valuable fantasy asset at that point.

[ericdaoust]

I also generally stay away from teenage goalies but in this case getting Knight that late in a prospect draft is too good to pass up. Expect 2-4 years of development. Or even better package him in a trade to get something better elsewhere. Your ridiculous timeline to make your team competitive doesn't have to be that long.

[TheBadger]

I would never draft a goalie in the entry draft and expect production within 5 years. The position is so random and volatile, and development is rarely linear. Knight is without a doubt a very highly touted prospect with all the tools to succeed, but so many things have to go right between now and, let's say 2022-23, for him to be a valuable fantasy asset at that point.

I went against this draft strategy with both Vasilevskiy and C.Hart both which came into the league within two years of their draft and proved to be a valuable asset. I will do the same with this kid as I see Knight forcing the hand of FLA with a minimum of 15 games by the end of the 2020/21 season with or without Bobrov.

[mounD]

I went against this draft strategy with both Vasilevskiy and C.Hart both which came into the league within two years of their draft and proved to be a valuable asset. I will do the same with this kid as I see Knight forcing the hand of FLA with a minimum of 15 games by the end of the 2020/21 season with or without Bobrov.

It's certainly possible we see a similar development path with Knight, but these guys like Vasi and Carter Hart are obviously the exception to the rule.

[Fast Tony DeNiro]

If nothing else he cpuld make some great trade bait. Teenage goalies make decent trade bait, not usually worth holding onto long enough to actually use. Knight sounds like he might be in that Vasi or Hart tier where they make thr NHL within 3 years or so, but so was Jack Campbell. Just think you're better off usins his trade value as an asset instead of waiting for him to make an impact.

[stevegamer]

I'd say 3 years is about what you're looking at, unless their goalie situation remains a mess, which could accelerate it. Give him a year to play and see waht you have. With luck, you can deal him for someone further along in development, or in the league.

Bobrovsky landing there is bad news for his value as a roster player in the next 3 years.

[rataylor22]

Little bit of revisionist history in here about Carter Hart’s expectations when he was drafted.

[CAN-AM Commish]

3-5 years.
Many things come into play.

1) Mental Maturity
2) Do the Panthers trade him at some point for a playoff run??
3) Does Bobvrovsky or whomever come into the fold and hold the kid back a bit?

SO many variables, its basically throwing a dart and hoping for the best.
Regardless of his current pedigree and or trajectory to NHL - many things have to be accomplished first.

With my final selection in our 3 round prospect draft (pick #32 out of 36) I grabbed Spencer Knight. Joined last year as an expansion team into a deep Dynasty league (over 10years)

With the goal of being competitive in 3-4 years, is Knight going to be ready to join my roster? We can keep players in our minors up to 3 years for free, after their 3 years “marinating” we can keep them down for a $fee.

Team including minors is in Sig.

[FrozenInferno]

Don't draft a goalie prospect unless you're willing to let him marinate in your minors for a few years before he gets any meaningful starts. More often than not it's a long wait with an established starter in the way. Vasi and Hart situations are super rare. Look at how long Saros has been stuck behind Rinne and it might be another year or two longer with Rinne extended.

Patience patience patience

[butch]

if they sign bob there wont be any rushing so 4 years is my guess .

[mounD]

The bottom line is that there are 31 prime jobs as #1 or 1A starters in the National Hockey League. That's it. It's not like forward, or even defense, where there are hundreds upon hundreds of vacant positions across the league. Now, think about those 31 spots and then ask yourself how many qualified individuals are vying for those positions? Dozens? Hundreds? Thousands? Holding down an NHL starting job, even for a few games, is a really exclusive club.

The main reason why goaltending as a position is so volatile compared to other positions is the scarcity of jobs. Not only do you have to be technically qualified for the position, but you have to be in the right place at the right time, following just the right sequence of events to even allow you to get a shot. Sure, Spencer Knight is very highly regarded. He's got the appropriate build, he's got the stats, he has the international pedigree, he's supposedly got the demeanor, etc. But he's just an 18 year old kid, likely *at least* three years out from any kind of clarity as to what his place is in the organization, let alone projecting when he's going to be their starter.

Trying to project goalies this far out is just downright silly. As another poster said, you're much better off capitalizing on the perceived value of guys like Knight. I would trade him for a forward.