[PG Section] PG Top 100 Roto Exclusive - Leave your Feedback!

[GMGates]

Thanks a bunch for the positive feedback guys!

MD & ED, any and all constructive criticism is welcomed. It is the inaugural edition so I expected some arguments - but so far it's been relatively quiet (must be a good thing!) haha...

As for the "Roto VS.", I wanted something to balance out a few of my bold rankings. After some conversations with the guys, I knew it needed to be done. It was fun writing that one - and it is definitely going to make a repeat appearance.

GMG

[metaldude26]

I'm curious about Mike Richards. How is it that he ranks so high? By all accounts he's just solid across the board, but not outstanding. I compare him to a guy like Mikko Koivu, who's essentially matching him across the board the past couple seasons and I wonder how there's a +30 gap between them in the rankings.

[ericdaoust]

I'm curious about Mike Richards. How is it that he ranks so high? By all accounts he's just solid across the board, but not outstanding. I compare him to a guy like Mikko Koivu, who's essentially matching him across the board the past couple seasons and I wonder how there's a +30 gap between them in the rankings.

My best guess is this has to do with the factoring in of "potential moving forward". Flyers' players are hurt individually because of their depth, but in a cap world that depth thins out at some point (see Blackhawks). But regardless the Flyers have a young improving core and there is room for offensive improvement. Meanwhile in Minnesota I don't see anything getting better anytime soon from an offensive standpoint.

[GMGates]

I'm curious about Mike Richards. How is it that he ranks so high? By all accounts he's just solid across the board, but not outstanding. I compare him to a guy like Mikko Koivu, who's essentially matching him across the board the past couple seasons and I wonder how there's a +30 gap between them in the rankings.

Good Question! That calls for a PG Roto Vs.

Based on the February Edition :
Mike Richards: PG Roto Score - 14 (30G, 40A, plus-10, 60 PIM, 30 PPP, 200 SOG)
Mikko Koivu: PG Roto Score - 12 (20G, 40A, plus/minus-0, 60 PIM, 30 PPP, 200 SOG)

Mike Richards' recent seasons, pace* and PG Score :
08/09 - 30 G, 50 A, plus-22, 63 PIM, 33 PPP, 238 SOG (PG - 15)
09/10 - 31 G, 31 A, minus-2, 79 PIM, 31 PPP, 237 SOG (PG - 13)
10/11 - 25 G, 47 A, plus-8, 69 PIM, 23 PPP, 195 SOG * (PG - 12)

Mikko Koivu's recent seasons and pace* :
08/09 - 20 G, 47 A, plus-2, 66 PIM, 26 PPP, 236 SOG (PG - 11)
09/10 - 22 G, 49 A, minus-2, 50 PIM, 28 PPP, 246 SOG (PG - 11)
10/11 - 21 G, 48 A, plus-6, 52 PIM, 25 PPP, 217 SOG * (PG - 11)

Let's take a look at individual stats...

Goals : Edge goes to Mike Richards who has put up back to back 30 goal seasons. He's on pace for 25, but I'd expect him to finish with 28.
Assists : Other than Richards' 31 assist campaign, they seem very even. Although, due to consistency - half point to Koivu.
Plus/minus : The hardest stat to track has them fairly even, other than Richards plus-22 performance - half point to Richards
PIMs : With almost a 100 more career PIMs (playing the same amount of seasons), Richards takes it.
PPP : Other than being even on pace this season, Richard has recorded back to back 30 PPP seasons. Point Richards.
SOG : Fairly similar but Koivu takes it.

That's 3.5 cats for Richards (G, PIM, PPP and half point for +/-) and 1.5 for Koivu (SOG and half point for A)

Keeper wise, you could also give the edge to Richards in terms of age (two years younger) and team (Flyers are definitely more attractive than Minnesota). Eric gives a great example of a Team Edge.

Two other things to point out:

1) praba never saw my rankings while he was sending in his, therefore we both genuinely placed Richards and Koivu in similar ranks.

2) Just because Koivu is placed 56th (and 53rd - praba) doesn't make him a bad player because he's not. It's just that the top 47 players have a PG rating of 13 or higher and Koivu's been a consistent 11 (ranked a low-12 in the edition).

At the end of the battle, Koivu may (or may not) see an appearance in the top 50 in the next edition while Richards could move a couple spots down the list (depending on monthly performance).

I guess we'll see next edition!

GMG

[JagrBomb]

That is the truth, I did not see Gates' List until it was published for all to see. I think it is better that way, so we would not influence each others selections. I geared my list more towards winning without destroying your future (which is why rookies are rated high), while it seems that Gates' list is driven more towards solely willing.

Anyways, Gates pretty much covers the statistical debate between richards and koivu, so here is some other reasons:

1) "Name Factor": In most keeper leagues, you will always get a better return for Mike Richards over Mikko Koivu.

2) "Playoffs": If your pool counts playoffs, Richards has a huge advantage over Koivu

3) "Linemates": Richards will always have quality linemates to help get him points

There are countless reasons. Even if while you are drafting and you would rather own Koivu for some reason, select Richards, because you can easily get Koivu + for him.

[metaldude26]

I'd never argue that Koivu is better than Richards but I was just wondering how they can be so close statistically but so far apart in the rankings.

I mean, I can't really argue with the numbers listed by Gates, although I am curious how a 17 PIM differential gives Richards an extra point in the rankings over Koivu. But Koivu's extra 20 SOG does nothing. I dunno, I guess that's too minor to quibble over but I wouldn't be able to say definitively that Richards is better than Koivu based on the numbers this season, but yet somehow you have.

For the points made by Praba however I'd like to quibble.

1) How can name value be a factor on a list like this? Wouldn't it be a much better tool for people to see that a guy like Koivu who doesn't have a big name is actually right on the heels of Richards. That way they could make better decisions when drafting/trading by making sure they are basing their decisions on actual value rather than name value. I mean, if one of the missions of Market Buzz is to represent a player's actual roto value then how can name value be a factor?

2) If playoffs are being weighed in that should probably be indicated somewhere so people can react/adjust accordingly.

3) Richards will always have better linemates? Are Nodl/Zherdev/JVR, Richards' most frequent linemates, currently better than Brunette/Miettinen, Koivu's most frequent linemates? I can't decide who's had it better/worse.

I know I'm being a pain in the ass but hopefully this is productive none the less.

[GMGates]

I definitely don't mind the challenge!

I dunno, I guess that's too minor to quibble over but I wouldn't be able to say definitively that Richards is better than Koivu based on the numbers this season

Very sound statement. I can't argue with you there. If you strip them both down to absolute Tier minimum, both score a PG Rank of 10.

I mean, I can't really argue with the numbers listed by Gates, although I am curious how a 17 PIM differential gives Richards an extra point in the rankings over Koivu. But Koivu's extra 20 SOG does nothing.

That's because those aren't the only factors. Take a look:

Richards -
10/11 - 25 G, 47 A, plus-8, 69 PIM, 23 PPP, 195 SOG *
[Note that the plus+8 is his current +/-, if you put that on pace it would actually be plus-12, but I really dislike "pacing" the plus/minus category]

Richards is...
5 G away from Tier 3 in Goals (currently Tier 2)
5 SOG away from Tier 3 in SOG (currently Tier 2)
plus+2 away from Tier 3 in plus/minus (currently Tier 2 - or already Tier 3 as noted above)

So his PG Roto Score from now until the end of the season could realistically range from 10/11 to 13.

~

Koivu
10/11 - 21 G, 48 A, plus-6, 52 PIM, 25 PPP, 217 SOG *

Koivu is...
plus+4 from Tier 3 (his actual +/- pace is 9)
8 PIM from Tier 3
5 PPP from Tier 3

Meaning Koivu has a ranging PG Roto Score of 10 to 13.

~~

Now because on pace numbers are never concrete, I like to use recent seasons as support.

Richards hit 30 goals and 200+ shots in his last two seasons.
M. Koivu has yet to hit 30 PPP and has not hit plus-10 since 07/08.

So if I were to give Richards a score based on pace (10), influenced by past achievements, it would be 12 or 13. Hitting two or all three of G, +/- and SOG.

Safe Bet 12.

If I were to give Koivu a score based on pace (10) influenced by past achievements, it would be 11 or 12. Hitting one or two of +/-, PIM, PPP.

Safe bet 11.

~~

Like I said, it's not a perfect system and I'm ready to defend any of my rankings.

[metaldude26]

Great stuff GMG. So does all that really add up to a 30 spot difference in the rankings or are you admitting oversight?

[ericdaoust]

Great stuff GMG. So does all that really add up to a 30 spot difference in the rankings or are you admitting oversight?

GMG's answer will be in next month's issue.

[JagrBomb]

I'd never argue that Koivu is better than Richards but I was just wondering how they can be so close statistically but so far apart in the rankings.

I mean, I can't really argue with the numbers listed by Gates, although I am curious how a 17 PIM differential gives Richards an extra point in the rankings over Koivu. But Koivu's extra 20 SOG does nothing. I dunno, I guess that's too minor to quibble over but I wouldn't be able to say definitively that Richards is better than Koivu based on the numbers this season, but yet somehow you have.

For the points made by Praba however I'd like to quibble.

1) How can name value be a factor on a list like this? Wouldn't it be a much better tool for people to see that a guy like Koivu who doesn't have a big name is actually right on the heels of Richards. That way they could make better decisions when drafting/trading by making sure they are basing their decisions on actual value rather than name value. I mean, if one of the missions of Market Buzz is to represent a player's actual roto value then how can name value be a factor?

2) If playoffs are being weighed in that should probably be indicated somewhere so people can react/adjust accordingly.

3) Richards will always have better linemates? Are Nodl/Zherdev/JVR, Richards' most frequent linemates, currently better than Brunette/Miettinen, Koivu's most frequent linemates? I can't decide who's had it better/worse.

I know I'm being a pain in the ass but hopefully this is productive none the less.

You have some great points about Koivu. They have very similar in production across the board. The main reason why i have Richards ranked higher than Koivu is that i am much more confident in Richards continuing his production for years to come. I also ranked Koivu a little lower than he should be because he is a Band-aid Boy.

I'm glad you brought it up though. I was expecting a lot more feedback regarding players rankings. For the next update, i am more inclined to move Richards down the list than move Koivu higher in the list.

[GMGates]

If it was based on only this season, maybe. But overall not really - Richards (15,13,12*) has a definite edge over Koivu (11,11,11*).

Like I mentioned in my original VS., Richards might slip a couple and Koivu gain a couple based on monthly/season performance, but there is still that gap between them.

Until either Richards really falters, or Koivu really impresses, things will stay status quo (give or take).

[metaldude26]

You have some great points about Koivu. They have very similar in production across the board. The main reason why i have Richards ranked higher than Koivu is that i am much more confident in Richards continuing his production for years to come. I also ranked Koivu a little lower than he should be because he is a Band-aid Boy.

I'm glad you brought it up though. I was expecting a lot more feedback regarding players rankings. For the next update, i am more inclined to move Richards down the list than move Koivu higher in the list.

If Koivu's a bandaid boy then so is Richards. Tell me who this games played belongs to:

05/06 - 79
06/07 - 59
07/08 - 73
08/09 - 79
09/10 - 82
Since Lockout: 372

And now this one:

05/06 - 64
06/07 - 82
07/08 - 57
08/09 - 79
09/10 - 80
Since Lockout: 362

Also for what it's worth Yahoo! ranking to this point Richards is 36, Koivu is 41 with goalies included.

[GMGates]

GMG's answer will be in next month's issue.

haha, should have kept it at that

Either way, the Richards vs. Koivu debate will surely make its way into the Guide in some form.

Possibly a Mail Bag section ?!

Now... to open a mail bag or not to open... that is the question!

har har har

[GMGates]

on the other hand, looks like praba has his hands full with MD

[JagrBomb]

If Koivu's a bandaid boy then so is Richards. Tell me who this games played belongs to:

05/06 - 79
06/07 - 59
07/08 - 73
08/09 - 79
09/10 - 82
Since Lockout: 372

And now this one:

05/06 - 64
06/07 - 82
07/08 - 57
08/09 - 79
09/10 - 80
Since Lockout: 362

Also for what it's worth Yahoo! ranking to this point Richards is 36, Koivu is 41 with goalies included.

I used Dobber's band-aid boy's list as a reference, take it up with him

On a serious note, I do agree Richards and Koivu are closer than they appear on my rankings, and will be adjusted accordingly next update. This was the first list, so obviously there will be some corrections made. However, it still does not change the fact that Richards is the better player to own.